Luke Van Roekel

Yixuan Sun, Elizabeth Cucuzzella, Steven Brus et al.

Modeling is crucial to understanding the effect of greenhouse gases, warming, and ice sheet melting on the ocean. At the same time, ocean processes affect phenomena such as hurricanes and droughts. Parameters in the models that cannot be physically measured have a significant effect on the model output. For an idealized ocean model, we generated perturbed parameter ensemble data and trained surrogate neural network models. The neural surrogates accurately predicted the one-step forward dynamics, of which we then computed the parametric sensitivity.

Yixuan Sun, Ololade Sowunmi, Romain Egele et al.

Training an effective deep learning model to learn ocean processes involves careful choices of various hyperparameters. We leverage the advanced search algorithms for multiobjective optimization in DeepHyper, a scalable hyperparameter optimization software, to streamline the development of neural networks tailored for ocean modeling. The focus is on optimizing Fourier neural operators (FNOs), a data-driven model capable of simulating complex ocean behaviors. Selecting the correct model and tuning the hyperparameters are challenging tasks, requiring much effort to ensure model accuracy. DeepHyper allows efficient exploration of hyperparameters associated with data preprocessing, FNO architecture-related hyperparameters, and various model training strategies. We aim to obtain an optimal set of hyperparameters leading to the most performant model. Moreover, on top of the commonly used mean squared error for model training, we propose adopting the negative anomaly correlation coefficient as the additional loss term to improve model performance and investigate the potential trade-off between the two terms. The experimental results show that the optimal set of hyperparameters enhanced model performance in single timestepping forecasting and greatly exceeded the baseline configuration in the autoregressive rollout for long-horizon forecasting up to 30 days. Utilizing DeepHyper, we demonstrate an approach to enhance the use of FNOs in ocean dynamics forecasting, offering a scalable solution with improved precision.

Yixuan Sun, Romain Egele, Sri Hari Krishna Narayanan et al.

Accurate simulations of the oceans are crucial in understanding the Earth system. Despite their efficiency, simulations at lower resolutions must rely on various uncertain parameterizations to account for unresolved processes. However, model sensitivity to parameterizations is difficult to quantify, making it challenging to tune these parameterizations to reproduce observations. Deep learning surrogates have shown promise for efficient computation of the parametric sensitivities in the form of partial derivatives, but their reliability is difficult to evaluate without ground truth derivatives. In this work, we leverage large-scale hyperparameter search and ensemble learning to improve both forward predictions, autoregressive rollout, and backward adjoint sensitivity estimation. Particularly, the ensemble method provides epistemic uncertainty of function value predictions and their derivatives, providing improved reliability of the neural surrogates in decision making.

Guang Zhao, Xihaier Luo, Seungjun Lee et al.

Mesoscale ocean dynamics play a critical role in climate systems, governing heat transport, hurricane genesis, and drought patterns. However, simulating these processes at high resolution remains computationally prohibitive due to their nonlinear, multiscale nature and vast spatiotemporal domains. Implicit neural representations (INRs) reduce the computational costs as resolution-independent surrogates but fail in many-query scenarios (inverse modeling) requiring rapid evaluations across diverse parameters. We present PINROD, a novel framework combining dynamics-aware implicit neural representations with parameterized neural ordinary differential equations to address these limitations. By integrating parametric dependencies into latent dynamics, our method efficiently captures nonlinear oceanic behavior across varying boundary conditions and physical parameters. Experiments on ocean mesoscale activity data show superior accuracy over existing baselines and improved computational efficiency compared to standard numerical simulations.