Andrew M. Dai

Yuan Xue, Denny Zhou, Nan Du et al.

Capturing the inter-dependencies among multiple types of clinically-critical events is critical not only to accurate future event prediction, but also to better treatment planning. In this work, we propose a deep latent state-space generative model to capture the interactions among different types of correlated clinical events (e.g., kidney failure, mortality) by explicitly modeling the temporal dynamics of patients' latent states. Based on these learned patient states, we further develop a new general discrete-time formulation of the hazard rate function to estimate the survival distribution of patients with significantly improved accuracy. Extensive evaluations over real EMR data show that our proposed model compares favorably to various state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, our method also uncovers meaningful insights about the latent correlations among mortality and different types of organ failures.

Yuan Xue, Nan Du, Anne Mottram et al.

We propose to meta-learn an a self-supervised patient trajectory forecast learning rule by meta-training on a meta-objective that directly optimizes the utility of the patient representation over the subsequent clinical outcome prediction. This meta-objective directly targets the usefulness of a representation generated from unlabeled clinical measurement forecast for later supervised tasks. The meta-learned can then be directly used in target risk prediction, and the limited available samples can be used for further fine-tuning the model performance. The effectiveness of our approach is tested on a real open source patient EHR dataset MIMIC-III. We are able to demonstrate that our attention-based patient state representation approach can achieve much better performance for predicting target risk with low resources comparing with both direct supervised learning and pretraining with all-observation trajectory forecast.

Takeru Miyato, Andrew M. Dai, Ian Goodfellow

Adversarial training provides a means of regularizing supervised learning algorithms while virtual adversarial training is able to extend supervised learning algorithms to the semi-supervised setting. However, both methods require making small perturbations to numerous entries of the input vector, which is inappropriate for sparse high-dimensional inputs such as one-hot word representations. We extend adversarial and virtual adversarial training to the text domain by applying perturbations to the word embeddings in a recurrent neural network rather than to the original input itself. The proposed method achieves state of the art results on multiple benchmark semi-supervised and purely supervised tasks. We provide visualizations and analysis showing that the learned word embeddings have improved in quality and that while training, the model is less prone to overfitting. Code is available at https://github.com/tensorflow/models/tree/master/research/adversarial_text.

Eleni Nisioti, Claire Glanois, Elias Najarro et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have taken the field of AI by storm, but their adoption in the field of Artificial Life (ALife) has been, so far, relatively reserved. In this work we investigate the potential synergies between LLMs and ALife, drawing on a large body of research in the two fields. We explore the potential of LLMs as tools for ALife research, for example, as operators for evolutionary computation or the generation of open-ended environments. Reciprocally, principles of ALife, such as self-organization, collective intelligence and evolvability can provide an opportunity for shaping the development and functionalities of LLMs, leading to more adaptive and responsive models. By investigating this dynamic interplay, the paper aims to inspire innovative crossover approaches for both ALife and LLM research. Along the way, we examine the extent to which LLMs appear to increasingly exhibit properties such as emergence or collective intelligence, expanding beyond their original goal of generating text, and potentially redefining our perception of lifelike intelligence in artificial systems.

Marton Havasi, Rodolphe Jenatton, Stanislav Fort et al.

Recent approaches to efficiently ensemble neural networks have shown that strong robustness and uncertainty performance can be achieved with a negligible gain in parameters over the original network. However, these methods still require multiple forward passes for prediction, leading to a significant computational cost. In this work, we show a surprising result: the benefits of using multiple predictions can be achieved `for free' under a single model's forward pass. In particular, we show that, using a multi-input multi-output (MIMO) configuration, one can utilize a single model's capacity to train multiple subnetworks that independently learn the task at hand. By ensembling the predictions made by the subnetworks, we improve model robustness without increasing compute. We observe a significant improvement in negative log-likelihood, accuracy, and calibration error on CIFAR10, CIFAR100, ImageNet, and their out-of-distribution variants compared to previous methods.

Shailesh Bavadekar, Andrew Dai, John Davis et al.

This report describes the aggregation and anonymization process applied to the initial version of COVID-19 Search Trends symptoms dataset (published at https://goo.gle/covid19symptomdataset on September 2, 2020), a publicly available dataset that shows aggregated, anonymized trends in Google searches for symptoms (and some related topics). The anonymization process is designed to protect the daily symptom search activity of every user with $\varepsilon$-differential privacy for $\varepsilon$ = 1.68.

Kamil Nar, Yuan Xue, Andrew M. Dai

When training the parameters of a linear dynamical model, the gradient descent algorithm is likely to fail to converge if the squared-error loss is used as the training loss function. Restricting the parameter space to a smaller subset and running the gradient descent algorithm within this subset can allow learning stable dynamical systems, but this strategy does not work for unstable systems. In this work, we look into the dynamics of the gradient descent algorithm and pinpoint what causes the difficulty of learning unstable systems. We show that observations taken at different times from the system to be learned influence the dynamics of the gradient descent algorithm in substantially different degrees. We introduce a time-weighted logarithmic loss function to fix this imbalance and demonstrate its effectiveness in learning unstable systems.

Ruiqi Gao, Erik Nijkamp, Diederik P. Kingma et al.

This paper studies a training method to jointly estimate an energy-based model and a flow-based model, in which the two models are iteratively updated based on a shared adversarial value function. This joint training method has the following traits. (1) The update of the energy-based model is based on noise contrastive estimation, with the flow model serving as a strong noise distribution. (2) The update of the flow model approximately minimizes the Jensen-Shannon divergence between the flow model and the data distribution. (3) Unlike generative adversarial networks (GAN) which estimates an implicit probability distribution defined by a generator model, our method estimates two explicit probabilistic distributions on the data. Using the proposed method we demonstrate a significant improvement on the synthesis quality of the flow model, and show the effectiveness of unsupervised feature learning by the learned energy-based model. Furthermore, the proposed training method can be easily adapted to semi-supervised learning. We achieve competitive results to the state-of-the-art semi-supervised learning methods.

Kun Zhang, Yuan Xue, Gerardo Flores et al.

Time series data are prevalent in electronic health records, mostly in the form of physiological parameters such as vital signs and lab tests. The patterns of these values may be significant indicators of patients' clinical states and there might be patterns that are unknown to clinicians but are highly predictive of some outcomes. Many of these values are also missing which makes it difficult to apply existing methods like decision trees. We propose a recurrent neural network model that reduces overfitting to noisy observations by limiting interactions between features. We analyze its performance on mortality, ICD-9 and AKI prediction from observational values on the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) dataset. Our models result in an improvement of 1.1% [p<0.01] in AU-ROC for mortality prediction under the MetaVision subset and 1.0% and 2.2% [p<0.01] respectively for mortality and AKI under the full MIMIC-III dataset compared to existing state-of-the-art interpolation, embedding and decay-based recurrent models.

Cinjon Resnick, Abhinav Gupta, Jakob Foerster et al.

Many recent works have discussed the propensity, or lack thereof, for emergent languages to exhibit properties of natural languages. A favorite in the literature is learning compositionality. We note that most of those works have focused on communicative bandwidth as being of primary importance. While important, it is not the only contributing factor. In this paper, we investigate the learning biases that affect the efficacy and compositionality of emergent languages. Our foremost contribution is to explore how capacity of a neural network impacts its ability to learn a compositional language. We additionally introduce a set of evaluation metrics with which we analyze the learned languages. Our hypothesis is that there should be a specific range of model capacity and channel bandwidth that induces compositional structure in the resulting language and consequently encourages systematic generalization. While we empirically see evidence for the bottom of this range, we curiously do not find evidence for the top part of the range and believe that this is an open question for the community.

Zhen Xu, Andrew M. Dai, Jonas Kemp et al.

The learning rate is one of the most important hyper-parameters for model training and generalization. However, current hand-designed parametric learning rate schedules offer limited flexibility and the predefined schedule may not match the training dynamics of high dimensional and non-convex optimization problems. In this paper, we propose a reinforcement learning based framework that can automatically learn an adaptive learning rate schedule by leveraging the information from past training histories. The learning rate dynamically changes based on the current training dynamics. To validate this framework, we conduct experiments with different neural network architectures on the Fashion MINIST and CIFAR10 datasets. Experimental results show that the auto-learned learning rate controller can achieve better test results. In addition, the trained controller network is generalizable -- able to be trained on one data set and transferred to new problems.

Jonas Kemp, Alvin Rajkomar, Andrew M. Dai

Clinical notes in electronic health records contain highly heterogeneous writing styles, including non-standard terminology or abbreviations. Using these notes in predictive modeling has traditionally required preprocessing (e.g. taking frequent terms or topic modeling) that removes much of the richness of the source data. We propose a pretrained hierarchical recurrent neural network model that parses minimally processed clinical notes in an intuitive fashion, and show that it improves performance for discharge diagnosis classification tasks on the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) dataset, compared to models that treat the notes as an unordered collection of terms or that conduct no pretraining. We also apply an attribution technique to examples to identify the words that the model uses to make its prediction, and show the importance of the words' nearby context.

Michaela Hardt, Alvin Rajkomar, Gerardo Flores et al.

Much work aims to explain a model's prediction on a static input. We consider explanations in a temporal setting where a stateful dynamical model produces a sequence of risk estimates given an input at each time step. When the estimated risk increases, the goal of the explanation is to attribute the increase to a few relevant inputs from the past. While our formal setup and techniques are general, we carry out an in-depth case study in a clinical setting. The goal here is to alert a clinician when a patient's risk of deterioration rises. The clinician then has to decide whether to intervene and adjust the treatment. Given a potentially long sequence of new events since she last saw the patient, a concise explanation helps her to quickly triage the alert. We develop methods to lift static attribution techniques to the dynamical setting, where we identify and address challenges specific to dynamics. We then experimentally assess the utility of different explanations of clinical alerts through expert evaluation.

William Fedus, Mihaela Rosca, Balaji Lakshminarayanan et al.

Generative adversarial networks (GANs) are a family of generative models that do not minimize a single training criterion. Unlike other generative models, the data distribution is learned via a game between a generator (the generative model) and a discriminator (a teacher providing training signal) that each minimize their own cost. GANs are designed to reach a Nash equilibrium at which each player cannot reduce their cost without changing the other players' parameters. One useful approach for the theory of GANs is to show that a divergence between the training distribution and the model distribution obtains its minimum value at equilibrium. Several recent research directions have been motivated by the idea that this divergence is the primary guide for the learning process and that every step of learning should decrease the divergence. We show that this view is overly restrictive. During GAN training, the discriminator provides learning signal in situations where the gradients of the divergences between distributions would not be useful. We provide empirical counterexamples to the view of GAN training as divergence minimization. Specifically, we demonstrate that GANs are able to learn distributions in situations where the divergence minimization point of view predicts they would fail. We also show that gradient penalties motivated from the divergence minimization perspective are equally helpful when applied in other contexts in which the divergence minimization perspective does not predict they would be helpful. This contributes to a growing body of evidence that GAN training may be more usefully viewed as approaching Nash equilibria via trajectories that do not necessarily minimize a specific divergence at each step.

Melody Y. Guan, Varun Gulshan, Andrew M. Dai et al.

Data are often labeled by many different experts with each expert only labeling a small fraction of the data and each data point being labeled by several experts. This reduces the workload on individual experts and also gives a better estimate of the unobserved ground truth. When experts disagree, the standard approaches are to treat the majority opinion as the correct label or to model the correct label as a distribution. These approaches, however, do not make any use of potentially valuable information about which expert produced which label. To make use of this extra information, we propose modeling the experts individually and then learning averaging weights for combining them, possibly in sample-specific ways. This allows us to give more weight to more reliable experts and take advantage of the unique strengths of individual experts at classifying certain types of data. Here we show that our approach leads to improvements in computer-aided diagnosis of diabetic retinopathy. We also show that our method performs better than competing algorithms by Welinder and Perona (2010), and by Mnih and Hinton (2012). Our work offers an innovative approach for dealing with the myriad real-world settings that use expert opinions to define labels for training.

Andrew M. Dai, Amos J. Storkey

We propose the supervised hierarchical Dirichlet process (sHDP), a nonparametric generative model for the joint distribution of a group of observations and a response variable directly associated with that whole group. We compare the sHDP with another leading method for regression on grouped data, the supervised latent Dirichlet allocation (sLDA) model. We evaluate our method on two real-world classification problems and two real-world regression problems. Bayesian nonparametric regression models based on the Dirichlet process, such as the Dirichlet process-generalised linear models (DP-GLM) have previously been explored; these models allow flexibility in modelling nonlinear relationships. However, until now, Hierarchical Dirichlet Process (HDP) mixtures have not seen significant use in supervised problems with grouped data since a straightforward application of the HDP on the grouped data results in learnt clusters that are not predictive of the responses. The sHDP solves this problem by allowing for clusters to be learnt jointly from the group structure and from the label assigned to each group.