Roberto Trotta

Daniela Breitman, Andrei Mesinger, Steven G. Murray et al.

We are witnessing a surge in observations of the cosmic dawn (CD) and epoch of reionisation (EoR), driving an increasing demand for fast and robust theoretical interpretation frameworks. In response, machine learning (ML), and emulation in particular, has emerged as a powerful approach to accelerate and enhance inference pipelines. In this work, we present 21cmEMUv3, an emulator trained on 21cmFASTv3 simulations that model both atomically and molecularly cooling galaxies. 21cmEMUv3 is conditioned on $σ_8$ and ten astrophysical parameters to produce seven summary observables: (i) the cylindrical 21cm power spectrum (PS), emulated for the first time at such high resolution and accuracy across a wide redshift range of $z \sim$ 6--30; (ii) the spherically-averaged 21cm PS; (iii) the mean neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium (IGM); (iv) the mean 21cm spin temperature; (v) the global 21cm signal; (vi) the ultraviolet (UV) luminosity functions (LFs); and (vii) the Thomson scattering optical depth. Notably, the cylindrical 21cm PS is emulated via score-based diffusion, while the remaining six summaries are emulated via long-short term memory (LSTM) networks, all achieving sub-percent median accuracy. We use the emulator to reinterpret current 21cm PS upper limits from HERA, for the first time using state-of-the-art hydrodynamical simulations to inform priors on star formation inside molecularly cooling galaxies. We find that our inferred soft-band X-ray luminosity per unit star formation rate is consistent with extrapolations of high-mass X-ray binaries to the low-metallicity regimes expected in the first galaxies, excluding values below $10^{39.2}$ erg s$^{-1}M^{-1}_\odot \rm{yr}$ at $95\%$ confidence. Finally, we produce forecasts for the detection of the cosmic 21cm PS with the Square Kilometre Array for different array configurations. The 21cmEMU package is publicly available.

LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration, Eric Aubourg, Camille Avestruz et al.

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

Uros Zivanovic, Serafina Di Gioia, Andre Scaffidi et al.

Applying Transformers to irregular time-series typically requires specializations to their baseline architecture, which can result in additional computational overhead and increased method complexity. We present the Rotary Masked Autoencoder (RoMAE), which utilizes the popular Rotary Positional Embedding (RoPE) method for continuous positions. RoMAE is an extension to the Masked Autoencoder (MAE) that enables interpolation and representation learning with multidimensional continuous positional information while avoiding any time-series-specific architectural specializations. We showcase RoMAE's performance on a variety of modalities including irregular and multivariate time-series, images, and audio, demonstrating that RoMAE surpasses specialized time-series architectures on difficult datasets such as the DESC ELAsTiCC Challenge while maintaining MAE's usual performance across other modalities. In addition, we investigate RoMAE's ability to reconstruct the embedded continuous positions, demonstrating that including learned embeddings in the input sequence breaks RoPE's relative position property.

Mingmeng Geng, Roberto Trotta

Based on one million arXiv papers submitted from May 2018 to January 2024, we assess the textual density of ChatGPT's writing style in their abstracts through a statistical analysis of word frequency changes. Our model is calibrated and validated on a mixture of real abstracts and ChatGPT-modified abstracts (simulated data) after a careful noise analysis. The words used for estimation are not fixed but adaptive, including those with decreasing frequency. We find that large language models (LLMs), represented by ChatGPT, are having an increasing impact on arXiv abstracts, especially in the field of computer science, where the fraction of LLM-style abstracts is estimated to be approximately 35%, if we take the responses of GPT-3.5 to one simple prompt, "revise the following sentences", as a baseline. We conclude with an analysis of both positive and negative aspects of the penetration of LLMs into academics' writing style.

Mingmeng Geng, Roberto Trotta

With a statistical analysis of arXiv paper abstracts, we report a marked drop in the frequency of several words previously identified as overused by ChatGPT, such as "delve", starting soon after they were pointed out in early 2024. The frequency of certain other words favored by ChatGPT, such as "significant", has instead kept increasing. These phenomena suggest that some authors of academic papers have adapted their use of large language models (LLMs), for example, by selecting outputs or applying modifications to the LLM-generated content. Such coevolution and cooperation of humans and LLMs thus introduce additional challenges to the detection of machine-generated text in real-world scenarios. Estimating the impact of LLMs on academic writing by examining word frequency remains feasible, and more attention should be paid to words that were already frequently employed, including those that have decreased in frequency due to LLMs' disfavor.

Rahul Srinivasan, Marco Crisostomi, Roberto Trotta et al.

We propose a novel method ($floZ$), based on normalizing flows, to estimate the Bayesian evidence (and its numerical uncertainty) from a pre-existing set of samples drawn from the unnormalized posterior distribution. We validate it on distributions whose evidence is known analytically, up to 15 parameter space dimensions, and compare with two state-of-the-art techniques for estimating the evidence: nested sampling (which computes the evidence as its main target) and a $k$-nearest-neighbors technique that produces evidence estimates from posterior samples. Provided representative samples from the target posterior are available, our method is more robust to posterior distributions with sharp features, especially in higher dimensions. For a simple multivariate Gaussian, we demonstrate its accuracy for up to 200 dimensions with $10^5$ posterior samples. $floZ$ has wide applicability, e.g., to estimate evidence from variational inference, Markov Chain Monte Carlo samples, or any other method that delivers samples and their likelihood from the unnormalized posterior density. As a physical application, we use $floZ$ to compute the Bayes factor for the presence of the first overtone in the ringdown signal of the gravitational wave data of GW150914, finding good agreement with nested sampling.

Satvik Mishra, Roberto Trotta, Matteo Viel

We demonstrate the capabilities of probabilistic diffusion models to reduce dramatically the computational cost of expensive hydrodynamical simulations to study the relationship between observable baryonic cosmological probes and dark matter at field level and well into the non-linear regime. We introduce a novel technique, Cosmo-FOLD (Cosmological Fields via Overlap Latent Diffusion) to rapidly generate accurate and arbitrarily large cosmological and astrophysical 3-dimensional fields, conditioned on a given input field. We are able to generate TNG300-2 dark matter density and gas temperature fields from a model trained only on ~1% of the volume (a process we refer to as `upscaling'), reproducing both large scale coherent dark matter filaments and power spectra to within 10% for wavenumbers k <= 5 h Mpc^-1. These results are obtained within a small fraction of the original simulation cost and produced on a single GPU. Beyond one and two points statistics, the bispectrum is also faithfully reproduced through the inclusion of positional encodings. Finally, we demonstrate Cosmo-FOLD's generalisation capabilities by upscaling a CAMELS volume of 25 (Mpc h^-1)^3 to a full TNG300-2 volume of 205 (Mpc h^-1)^3$ with no fine-tuning. Cosmo-FOLD opens the door to full field-level simulation-based inference on cosmological scale.

Konstantin Karchev, Roberto Trotta, Raul Jimenez

Using type Ia supernovae (SNae Ia) as cosmological probes requires empirical corrections, which correlate with their host environment. We present a unified Bayesian hierarchical model designed to infer, from purely photometric observations, the intrinsic dependence of SN Ia brightness on progenitor properties (metallicity & age), the delay-time distribution (DTD) that governs their rate as a function of age, and cosmology, as well as the redshifts of all hosts. The model incorporates physics-based prescriptions for star formation and chemical evolution from Prospector-beta, dust extinction of both galaxy and SN light, and observational selection effects. We show with simulations that intrinsic dependences on metallicity and age have distinct observational signatures, with metallicity mimicking the well-known step of SN Ia magnitudes across a host stellar mass of $\approx 10^{10} M_{\odot}$. We then demonstrate neural simulation-based inference of all model parameters from mock observations of ~16 000 SNae Ia and their hosts up to redshift 0.9. Our joint physics-based approach delivers robust and precise photometric redshifts (<0.01 median scatter) and improved cosmological constraints, unlocking the full power of photometric data and paving the way for an end-to-end simulation-based analysis pipeline in the LSST era.

Sebastian Springer, Andre Scaffidi, Maximilian Autenrieth et al.

Detecting localized density differences in multivariate data is a crucial task in computational science. Such anomalies can indicate a critical system failure, lead to a groundbreaking scientific discovery, or reveal unexpected changes in data distribution. We introduce EagleEye, an anomaly detection method to compare two multivariate datasets with the aim of identifying local density anomalies, namely over- or under-densities affecting only localised regions of the feature space. Anomalies are detected by modelling, for each point, the ordered sequence of its neighbours' membership label as a coin-flipping process and monitoring deviations from the expected behaviour of such process. A unique advantage of our method is its ability to provide an accurate, entirely unsupervised estimate of the local signal purity. We demonstrate its effectiveness through experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets. In synthetic data, EagleEye accurately detects anomalies in multiple dimensions even when they affect a tiny fraction of the data. When applied to a challenging resonant anomaly detection benchmark task in simulated Large Hadron Collider data, EagleEye successfully identifies particle decay events present in just 0.3% of the dataset. In global temperature data, EagleEye uncovers previously unidentified, geographically localised changes in temperature fields that occurred in the most recent years. Thanks to its key advantages of conceptual simplicity, computational efficiency, trivial parallelisation, and scalability, EagleEye is widely applicable across many fields.

Maximilian Autenrieth, David A. van Dyk, Roberto Trotta et al.

We propose a simple, statistically principled, and theoretically justified method to improve supervised learning when the training set is not representative, a situation known as covariate shift. We build upon a well-established methodology in causal inference, and show that the effects of covariate shift can be reduced or eliminated by conditioning on propensity scores. In practice, this is achieved by fitting learners within strata constructed by partitioning the data based on the estimated propensity scores, leading to approximately balanced covariates and much-improved target prediction. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our general-purpose method on two contemporary research questions in cosmology, outperforming state-of-the-art importance weighting methods. We obtain the best reported AUC (0.958) on the updated "Supernovae photometric classification challenge", and we improve upon existing conditional density estimation of galaxy redshift from Sloan Data Sky Survey (SDSS) data.