Sarah Dean

Kimia Kazemian, Zhenzhen Liu, Yangfanyu Yang et al.

Social and collaborative platforms emit multivariate time-series traces in which early interactions-such as views, likes, or downloads-are followed, sometimes months or years later, by higher impact like citations, sales, or reviews. We formalize this setting as Lead-Lag Forecasting (LLF): given an early usage channel (the lead), predict a correlated but temporally shifted outcome channel (the lag). Despite the ubiquity of such patterns, LLF has not been treated as a unified forecasting problem within the time-series community, largely due to the absence of standardized datasets. To anchor research in LLF, here we present two high-volume benchmark datasets-arXiv (accesses -> citations of 2.3M papers) and GitHub (pushes/stars -> forks of 3M repositories)-and outline additional domains with analogous lead-lag dynamics, including Wikipedia (page views -> edits), Spotify (streams -> concert attendance), e-commerce (click-throughs -> purchases), and LinkedIn profile (views -> messages). Our datasets provide ideal testbeds for lead-lag forecasting, by capturing long-horizon dynamics across years, spanning the full spectrum of outcomes, and avoiding survivorship bias in sampling. We documented all technical details of data curation and cleaning, verified the presence of lead-lag dynamics through statistical and classification tests, and benchmarked parametric and non-parametric baselines for regression. Our study establishes LLF as a novel forecasting paradigm and lays an empirical foundation for its systematic exploration in social and usage data. Our data portal with downloads and documentation is available at https://lead-lag-forecasting.github.io/.

Yahya Sattar, Yassir Jedra, Sarah Dean

We consider the problem of learning a realization of a partially observed dynamical system with linear state transitions and bilinear observations. Under very mild assumptions on the process and measurement noises, we provide a finite time analysis for learning the unknown dynamics matrices (up to a similarity transform). Our analysis involves a regression problem with heavy-tailed and dependent data. Moreover, each row of our design matrix contains a Kronecker product of current input with a history of inputs, making it difficult to guarantee persistence of excitation. We overcome these challenges, first providing a data-dependent high probability error bound for arbitrary but fixed inputs. Then, we derive a data-independent error bound for inputs chosen according to a simple random design. Our main results provide an upper bound on the statistical error rates and sample complexity of learning the unknown dynamics matrices from a single finite trajectory of bilinear observations.

Haruka Kiyohara, Fan Yao, Sarah Dean

In two-sided platforms (e.g., video streaming or e-commerce), viewers and providers engage in interactive dynamics: viewers benefit from increases in provider populations, while providers benefit from increases in viewer population. Despite the importance of such "population effects" on long-term platform health, recommendation policies do not generally take the participation dynamics into account. This paper thus studies the dynamics and recommender policy design on two-sided platforms under the population effects for the first time. Our control- and game-theoretic findings warn against the use of the standard "myopic-greedy" policy and shed light on the importance of provider-side considerations (i.e., effectively distributing exposure among provider groups) to improve social welfare via population growth. We also present a simple algorithm to optimize long-term social welfare by taking the population effects into account, and demonstrate its effectiveness in synthetic and real-data experiments. Our experiment code is available at https://github.com/sdean-group/dynamics-two-sided-market.

Karl Krauth, Sarah Dean, Alex Zhao et al.

Recommender systems operate in an inherently dynamical setting. Past recommendations influence future behavior, including which data points are observed and how user preferences change. However, experimenting in production systems with real user dynamics is often infeasible, and existing simulation-based approaches have limited scale. As a result, many state-of-the-art algorithms are designed to solve supervised learning problems, and progress is judged only by offline metrics. In this work we investigate the extent to which offline metrics predict online performance by evaluating eleven recommenders across six controlled simulated environments. We observe that offline metrics are correlated with online performance over a range of environments. However, improvements in offline metrics lead to diminishing returns in online performance. Furthermore, we observe that the ranking of recommenders varies depending on the amount of initial offline data available. We study the impact of adding exploration strategies, and observe that their effectiveness, when compared to greedy recommendation, is highly dependent on the recommendation algorithm. We provide the environments and recommenders described in this paper as Reclab: an extensible ready-to-use simulation framework at https://github.com/berkeley-reclab/RecLab.

Sarah Dean, Evan Dong, Meena Jagadeesan et al.

As AI systems enter into a growing number of societal domains, these systems increasingly shape and are shaped by user preferences, opinions, and behaviors. However, the design of AI systems rarely accounts for how AI and users shape one another. In this position paper, we argue for the development of formal interaction models which mathematically specify how AI and users shape one another. Formal interaction models can be leveraged to (1) specify interactions for implementation, (2) monitor interactions through empirical analysis, (3) anticipate societal impacts via counterfactual analysis, and (4) control societal impacts via interventions. The design space of formal interaction models is vast, and model design requires careful consideration of factors such as style, granularity, mathematical complexity, and measurability. Using content recommender systems as a case study, we critically examine the nascent literature of formal interaction models with respect to these use-cases and design axes. More broadly, we call for the community to leverage formal interaction models when designing, evaluating, or auditing any AI system which interacts with users.

Yahya Sattar, Yassir Jedra, Maryam Fazel et al.

We consider the problem of learning a realization of a partially observed bilinear dynamical system (BLDS) from noisy input-output data. Given a single trajectory of input-output samples, we provide a finite time analysis for learning the system's Markov-like parameters, from which a balanced realization of the bilinear system can be obtained. Our bilinear system identification algorithm learns the system's Markov-like parameters by regressing the outputs to highly correlated, nonlinear, and heavy-tailed covariates. Moreover, the stability of BLDS depends on the sequence of inputs used to excite the system. These properties, unique to partially observed bilinear dynamical systems, pose significant challenges to the analysis of our algorithm for learning the unknown dynamics. We address these challenges and provide high probability error bounds on our identification algorithm under a uniform stability assumption. Our analysis provides insights into system theoretic quantities that affect learning accuracy and sample complexity. Lastly, we perform numerical experiments with synthetic data to reinforce these insights.

Avinandan Bose, Mihaela Curmei, Daniel L. Jiang et al.

This paper investigates ML systems serving a group of users, with multiple models/services, each aimed at specializing to a sub-group of users. We consider settings where upon deploying a set of services, users choose the one minimizing their personal losses and the learner iteratively learns by interacting with diverse users. Prior research shows that the outcomes of learning dynamics, which comprise both the services' adjustments and users' service selections, hinge significantly on the initialization. However, finding good initializations faces two main challenges: (i) Bandit feedback: Typically, data on user preferences are not available before deploying services and observing user behavior; (ii) Suboptimal local solutions: The total loss landscape (i.e., the sum of loss functions across all users and services) is not convex and gradient-based algorithms can get stuck in poor local minima. We address these challenges with a randomized algorithm to adaptively select a minimal set of users for data collection in order to initialize a set of services. Under mild assumptions on the loss functions, we prove that our initialization leads to a total loss within a factor of the globally optimal total loss with complete user preference data}, and this factor scales logarithmically in the number of services. This result is a generalization of the well-known $k$-means++ guarantee to a broad problem class, which is also of independent interest. The theory is complemented by experiments on real as well as semi-synthetic datasets.

Yahya Sattar, Sunmook Choi, Yassir Jedra et al.

We consider the problem of controlling a linear dynamical system from bilinear observations with minimal quadratic cost. Despite the similarity of this problem to standard linear quadratic Gaussian (LQG) control, we show that when the observation model is bilinear, neither does the Separation Principle hold, nor is the optimal controller affine in the estimated state. Moreover, the cost-to-go is non-convex in the control input. Hence, finding an analytical expression for the optimal feedback controller is difficult in general. Under certain settings, we show that the standard LQG controller locally maximizes the cost instead of minimizing it. Furthermore, the optimal controllers (derived analytically) are not unique and are nonlinear in the estimated state. We also introduce a notion of input-dependent observability and derive conditions under which the Kalman filter covariance remains bounded. We illustrate our theoretical results through numerical experiments in multiple synthetic settings.

Sunmook Choi, Yahya Sattar, Yassir Jedra et al.

We study a nonstationary bandit problem where rewards depend on both actions and latent states, the latter governed by unknown linear dynamics. Crucially, the state dynamics also depend on the actions, resulting in tension between short-term and long-term rewards. We propose an explore-then-commit algorithm for a finite horizon $T$. During the exploration phase, random Rademacher actions enable estimation of the Markov parameters of the linear dynamics, which characterize the action-reward relationship. In the commit phase, the algorithm uses the estimated parameters to design an optimized action sequence for long-term reward. Our proposed algorithm achieves $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(T^{2/3})$ regret. Our analysis handles two key challenges: learning from temporally correlated rewards, and designing action sequences with optimal long-term reward. We address the first challenge by providing near-optimal sample complexity and error bounds for system identification using bilinear rewards. We address the second challenge by proving an equivalence with indefinite quadratic optimization over a hypercube, a known NP-hard problem. We provide a sub-optimality guarantee for this problem, enabling our regret upper bound. Lastly, we propose a semidefinite relaxation with Goemans-Williamson rounding as a practical approach.

Amelia Kovacs, Jerry Chee, Kimia Kazemian et al.

Personalized AI systems, from recommendation systems to chatbots, are a prevalent method for distributing content to users based on their learned preferences. However, there is growing concern about the adverse effects of these systems, including their potential tendency to expose users to sensitive or harmful material, negatively impacting overall well-being. To address this concern quantitatively, it is necessary to create datasets with relevant sensitivity labels for content, enabling researchers to evaluate personalized systems beyond mere engagement metrics. To this end, we introduce two novel datasets that include a taxonomy of sensitivity labels alongside user-content ratings: one that integrates MovieLens rating data with content warnings from the Does the Dog Die? community ratings website, and another that combines fan-fiction interaction data and user-generated warnings from Archive of Our Own.

Mihaela Curmei, Sarah Dean, Benjamin Recht

In this work, we consider how preference models in interactive recommendation systems determine the availability of content and users' opportunities for discovery. We propose an evaluation procedure based on stochastic reachability to quantify the maximum probability of recommending a target piece of content to an user for a set of allowable strategic modifications. This framework allows us to compute an upper bound on the likelihood of recommendation with minimal assumptions about user behavior. Stochastic reachability can be used to detect biases in the availability of content and diagnose limitations in the opportunities for discovery granted to users. We show that this metric can be computed efficiently as a convex program for a variety of practical settings, and further argue that reachability is not inherently at odds with accuracy. We demonstrate evaluations of recommendation algorithms trained on large datasets of explicit and implicit ratings. Our results illustrate how preference models, selection rules, and user interventions impact reachability and how these effects can be distributed unevenly.

Sarah Dean, Thomas Krendl Gilbert, Nathan Lambert et al.

The development of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies has far exceeded the investigation of their relationship with society. Sociotechnical inquiry is needed to mitigate the harms of new technologies whose potential impacts remain poorly understood. To date, subfields of AI research develop primarily individual views on their relationship with sociotechnics, while tools for external investigation, comparison, and cross-pollination are lacking. In this paper, we propose four directions for inquiry into new and evolving areas of technological development: value--what progress and direction does a field promote, optimization--how the defined system within a problem formulation relates to broader dynamics, consensus--how agreement is achieved and who is included in building it, and failure--what methods are pursued when the problem specification is found wanting. The paper provides a lexicon for sociotechnical inquiry and illustrates it through the example of consumer drone technology.

Sarah Dean, Andrew J. Taylor, Ryan K. Cosner et al.

Modern nonlinear control theory seeks to develop feedback controllers that endow systems with properties such as safety and stability. The guarantees ensured by these controllers often rely on accurate estimates of the system state for determining control actions. In practice, measurement model uncertainty can lead to error in state estimates that degrades these guarantees. In this paper, we seek to unify techniques from control theory and machine learning to synthesize controllers that achieve safety in the presence of measurement model uncertainty. We define the notion of a Measurement-Robust Control Barrier Function (MR-CBF) as a tool for determining safe control inputs when facing measurement model uncertainty. Furthermore, MR-CBFs are used to inform sampling methodologies for learning-based perception systems and quantify tolerable error in the resulting learned models. We demonstrate the efficacy of MR-CBFs in achieving safety with measurement model uncertainty on a simulated Segway system.

Sarah Dean, Benjamin Recht

In order to certify performance and safety, feedback control requires precise characterization of sensor errors. In this paper, we provide guarantees on such feedback systems when sensors are characterized by solving a supervised learning problem. We show a uniform error bound on nonparametric kernel regression under a dynamically-achievable dense sampling scheme. This allows for a finite-time convergence rate on the sub-optimality of using the regressor in closed-loop for waypoint tracking. We demonstrate our results in simulation with simplified unmanned aerial vehicle and autonomous driving examples.

Esther Rolf, Max Simchowitz, Sarah Dean et al.

While real-world decisions involve many competing objectives, algorithmic decisions are often evaluated with a single objective function. In this paper, we study algorithmic policies which explicitly trade off between a private objective (such as profit) and a public objective (such as social welfare). We analyze a natural class of policies which trace an empirical Pareto frontier based on learned scores, and focus on how such decisions can be made in noisy or data-limited regimes. Our theoretical results characterize the optimal strategies in this class, bound the Pareto errors due to inaccuracies in the scores, and show an equivalence between optimal strategies and a rich class of fairness-constrained profit-maximizing policies. We then present empirical results in two different contexts -- online content recommendation and sustainable abalone fisheries -- to underscore the applicability of our approach to a wide range of practical decisions. Taken together, these results shed light on inherent trade-offs in using machine learning for decisions that impact social welfare.

Sarah Dean, Sarah Rich, Benjamin Recht

Recommender systems often rely on models which are trained to maximize accuracy in predicting user preferences. When the systems are deployed, these models determine the availability of content and information to different users. The gap between these objectives gives rise to a potential for unintended consequences, contributing to phenomena such as filter bubbles and polarization. In this work, we consider directly the information availability problem through the lens of user recourse. Using ideas of reachability, we propose a computationally efficient audit for top-$N$ linear recommender models. Furthermore, we describe the relationship between model complexity and the effort necessary for users to exert control over their recommendations. We use this insight to provide a novel perspective on the user cold-start problem. Finally, we demonstrate these concepts with an empirical investigation of a state-of-the-art model trained on a widely used movie ratings dataset.

Sarah Dean, Nikolai Matni, Benjamin Recht et al.

Motivated by vision-based control of autonomous vehicles, we consider the problem of controlling a known linear dynamical system for which partial state information, such as vehicle position, is extracted from complex and nonlinear data, such as a camera image. Our approach is to use a learned perception map that predicts some linear function of the state and to design a corresponding safe set and robust controller for the closed loop system with this sensing scheme. We show that under suitable smoothness assumptions on both the perception map and the generative model relating state to complex and nonlinear data, parameters of the safe set can be learned via appropriately dense sampling of the state space. We then prove that the resulting perception-control loop has favorable generalization properties. We illustrate the usefulness of our approach on a synthetic example and on the self-driving car simulation platform CARLA.

Sarah Dean, Stephen Tu, Nikolai Matni et al.

We study the constrained linear quadratic regulator with unknown dynamics, addressing the tension between safety and exploration in data-driven control techniques. We present a framework which allows for system identification through persistent excitation, while maintaining safety by guaranteeing the satisfaction of state and input constraints. This framework involves a novel method for synthesizing robust constraint-satisfying feedback controllers, leveraging newly developed tools from system level synthesis. We connect statistical results with cost sub-optimality bounds to give non-asymptotic guarantees on both estimation and controller performance.

Roel Dobbe, Sarah Dean, Thomas Gilbert et al.

Machine learning (ML) is increasingly deployed in real world contexts, supplying actionable insights and forming the basis of automated decision-making systems. While issues resulting from biases pre-existing in training data have been at the center of the fairness debate, these systems are also affected by technical and emergent biases, which often arise as context-specific artifacts of implementation. This position paper interprets technical bias as an epistemological problem and emergent bias as a dynamical feedback phenomenon. In order to stimulate debate on how to change machine learning practice to effectively address these issues, we explore this broader view on bias, stress the need to reflect on epistemology, and point to value-sensitive design methodologies to revisit the design and implementation process of automated decision-making systems.

Sarah Dean, Horia Mania, Nikolai Matni et al.

We consider adaptive control of the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR), where an unknown linear system is controlled subject to quadratic costs. Leveraging recent developments in the estimation of linear systems and in robust controller synthesis, we present the first provably polynomial time algorithm that provides high probability guarantees of sub-linear regret on this problem. We further study the interplay between regret minimization and parameter estimation by proving a lower bound on the expected regret in terms of the exploration schedule used by any algorithm. Finally, we conduct a numerical study comparing our robust adaptive algorithm to other methods from the adaptive LQR literature, and demonstrate the flexibility of our proposed method by extending it to a demand forecasting problem subject to state constraints.

Lydia T. Liu, Sarah Dean, Esther Rolf et al.

Fairness in machine learning has predominantly been studied in static classification settings without concern for how decisions change the underlying population over time. Conventional wisdom suggests that fairness criteria promote the long-term well-being of those groups they aim to protect. We study how static fairness criteria interact with temporal indicators of well-being, such as long-term improvement, stagnation, and decline in a variable of interest. We demonstrate that even in a one-step feedback model, common fairness criteria in general do not promote improvement over time, and may in fact cause harm in cases where an unconstrained objective would not. We completely characterize the delayed impact of three standard criteria, contrasting the regimes in which these exhibit qualitatively different behavior. In addition, we find that a natural form of measurement error broadens the regime in which fairness criteria perform favorably. Our results highlight the importance of measurement and temporal modeling in the evaluation of fairness criteria, suggesting a range of new challenges and trade-offs.

Sarah Dean, Horia Mania, Nikolai Matni et al.

This paper addresses the optimal control problem known as the Linear Quadratic Regulator in the case when the dynamics are unknown. We propose a multi-stage procedure, called Coarse-ID control, that estimates a model from a few experimental trials, estimates the error in that model with respect to the truth, and then designs a controller using both the model and uncertainty estimate. Our technique uses contemporary tools from random matrix theory to bound the error in the estimation procedure. We also employ a recently developed approach to control synthesis called System Level Synthesis that enables robust control design by solving a convex optimization problem. We provide end-to-end bounds on the relative error in control cost that are nearly optimal in the number of parameters and that highlight salient properties of the system to be controlled such as closed-loop sensitivity and optimal control magnitude. We show experimentally that the Coarse-ID approach enables efficient computation of a stabilizing controller in regimes where simple control schemes that do not take the model uncertainty into account fail to stabilize the true system.