Hywel T. P. Williams

Tristan J. B. Cann, Ben Dennes, Travis Coan et al.

Online discourse covers a wide range of topics and many actors tailor their content to impact online discussions through carefully crafted messages and targeted campaigns. Yet the scale and diversity of online media content make it difficult to evaluate the impact of a particular message. In this paper, we present a new technique that leverages semantic similarity to quantify the change in the discussion after a particular message has been published. We use a set of press releases from environmental organisations and tweets from the climate change debate to show that our novel approach reveals a heavy-tailed distribution of response in online discourse to strategic communications.

James C. Young, Rudy Arthur, Hywel T. P. Williams

This study explores how different weather conditions influence public sentiment on social media, focusing on Twitter data from the UK. By considering climate and linguistic baselines, we improve the accuracy of weather-related sentiment analysis. Our findings show that emotional responses to weather are complex, influenced by combinations of weather variables and regional language differences. The results highlight the importance of context-sensitive methods for better understanding public mood in response to weather, which can enhance impact-based forecasting and risk communication in the context of climate change.

Seth Bullock, Nirav Ajmeri, Mike Batty et al.

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have great potential to help address societal challenges that are both collective in nature and present at national or trans-national scale. Pressing challenges in healthcare, finance, infrastructure and sustainability, for instance, might all be productively addressed by leveraging and amplifying AI for national-scale collective intelligence. The development and deployment of this kind of AI faces distinctive challenges, both technical and socio-technical. Here, a research strategy for mobilising inter-disciplinary research to address these challenges is detailed and some of the key issues that must be faced are outlined.

Geoffrey Dawson, Remy Vandaele, Andrew Taylor et al.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Foundation models (FMs), pre-trained on massive unlabelled datasets, have the potential to drastically change AI applications in ocean science, where labelled data are often sparse and expensive to collect. In this work, we describe a new foundation model using the Prithvi-EO Vision Transformer architecture which has been pre-trained to reconstruct data from the Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI). We evaluate the model by fine-tuning on two downstream marine earth observation tasks. We first assess model performance compared to current baseline models used to quantify chlorophyll concentration. We then evaluate the FMs ability to refine remote sensing-based estimates of ocean primary production. Our results demonstrate the utility of self-trained FMs for marine monitoring, in particular for making use of small amounts of high quality labelled data and in capturing detailed spatial patterns of ocean colour whilst matching point observations. We conclude that this new generation of geospatial AI models has the potential to provide more robust, data-driven insights into ocean ecosystems and their role in global climate processes.

James C. Young, Rudy Arthur, Hywel T. P. Williams

Researchers commonly perform sentiment analysis on large collections of short texts like tweets, Reddit posts or newspaper headlines that are all focused on a specific topic, theme or event. Usually, general-purpose sentiment analysis methods are used. These perform well on average but miss the variation in meaning that happens across different contexts, for example, the word "active" has a very different intention and valence in the phrase "active lifestyle" versus "active volcano". This work presents a new approach, CIDER (Context Informed Dictionary and sEmantic Reasoner), which performs context-sensitive linguistic analysis, where the valence of sentiment-laden terms is inferred from the whole corpus before being used to score the individual texts. In this paper, we detail the CIDER algorithm and demonstrate that it outperforms state-of-the-art generalist unsupervised sentiment analysis techniques on a large collection of tweets about the weather. CIDER is also applicable to alternative (non-sentiment) linguistic scales. A case study on gender in the UK is presented, with the identification of highly gendered and sentiment-laden days. We have made our implementation of CIDER available as a Python package: https://pypi.org/project/ciderpolarity/.

Iraklis Moutidis, Hywel T. P. Williams

Detecting important events in high volume news streams is an important task for a variety of purposes.The volume and rate of online news increases the need for automated event detection methods thatcan operate in real time. In this paper we develop a network-based approach that makes the workingassumption that important news events always involve named entities (such as persons, locationsand organizations) that are linked in news articles. Our approach uses natural language processingtechniques to detect these entities in a stream of news articles and then creates a time-stamped seriesof networks in which the detected entities are linked by co-occurrence in articles and sentences. Inthis prototype, weighted node degree is tracked over time and change-point detection used to locateimportant events. Potential events are characterized and distinguished using community detectionon KeyGraphs that relate named entities and informative noun-phrases from related articles. Thismethodology already produces promising results and will be extended in future to include a widervariety of complex network analysis techniques.

Rudy Arthur, Hywel Williams

We observe and report on a systematic relationship between population density and Twitter use. Number of tweets, number of users and population per unit area are related by power laws, with exponents greater than one, that are consistent with each other and across a range of spatial scales. This implies that population density can accurately predict Twitter activity. Furthermore this trend can be used to identify `anomalous' areas that deviate from the trend. Analysis of geo-tagged and place-tagged tweets show that geo-tagged tweets are different with respect to user type and content. Our findings have implications for the spatial analysis of Twitter data and for understanding demographic biases in the Twitter user base.

Rudy Arthur, Chris A. Boulton, Humphrey Shotton et al.

"Social sensing" is a form of crowd-sourcing that involves systematic analysis of digital communications to detect real-world events. Here we consider the use of social sensing for observing natural hazards. In particular, we present a case study that uses data from a popular social media platform (Twitter) to detect and locate flood events in the UK. In order to improve data quality we apply a number of filters (timezone, simple text filters and a naive Bayes `relevance' filter) to the data. We then use place names in the user profile and message text to infer the location of the tweets. These two steps remove most of the irrelevant tweets and yield orders of magnitude more located tweets than we have by relying on geo-tagged data. We demonstrate that high resolution social sensing of floods is feasible and we can produce high-quality historical and real-time maps of floods using Twitter.