Vishal Upendran

Vishal Upendran, Panagiotis Tigas, Banafsheh Ferdousi et al. · cmu, nvidia

Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) arise from spatio-temporal changes to Earth's magnetic field which arise from the interaction of the solar wind with Earth's magnetosphere, and drive catastrophic destruction to our technologically dependent society. Hence, computational models to forecast GICs globally with large forecast horizon, high spatial resolution and temporal cadence are of increasing importance to perform prompt necessary mitigation. Since GIC data is proprietary, the time variability of horizontal component of the magnetic field perturbation (dB/dt) is used as a proxy for GICs. In this work, we develop a fast, global dB/dt forecasting model, which forecasts 30 minutes into the future using only solar wind measurements as input. The model summarizes 2 hours of solar wind measurement using a Gated Recurrent Unit, and generates forecasts of coefficients which are folded with a spherical harmonic basis to enable global forecasts. When deployed, our model produces results in under a second, and generates global forecasts for horizontal magnetic perturbation components at 1-minute cadence. We evaluate our model across models in literature for two specific storms of 5 August 2011 and 17 March 2015, while having a self-consistent benchmark model set. Our model outperforms, or has consistent performance with state-of-the-practice high time cadence local and low time cadence global models, while also outperforming/having comparable performance with the benchmark models. Such quick inferences at high temporal cadence and arbitrary spatial resolutions may ultimately enable accurate forewarning of dB/dt for any place on Earth, resulting in precautionary measures to be taken in an informed manner.

Jithu J Athalathil, Bhargav Vaidya, Sayan Kundu et al.

Studying the magnetic field properties on the solar surface is crucial for understanding the solar and heliospheric activities, which in turn shape space weather in the solar system. Surface Flux Transport (SFT) modeling helps us to simulate and analyse the transport and evolution of magnetic flux on the solar surface, providing valuable insights into the mechanisms responsible for solar activity. In this work, we demonstrate the use of machine learning techniques in solving magnetic flux transport, making it accurate. We have developed a novel Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINN)-based model to study the evolution of Bipolar Magnetic Regions (BMRs) using SFT in one-dimensional azimuthally averaged and also in two-dimensions. We demonstrate the efficiency and computational feasibility of our PINN-based model by comparing its performance and accuracy with that of a numerical model implemented using the Runge-Kutta Implicit-Explicit (RK-IMEX) scheme. The mesh-independent PINN method can be used to reproduce the observed polar magnetic field with better flux conservation. This advancement is important for accurately reproducing observed polar magnetic fields, thereby providing insights into the strength of future solar cycles. This work paves the way for more efficient and accurate simulations of solar magnetic flux transport and showcases the applicability of PINN in solving advection-diffusion equations with a particular focus on heliophysics.

Vishal Upendran

The solar atmosphere shows anomalous variation in temperature, starting from the 5500 K photosphere to the million-degree Kelvin corona. The corona itself expands into the interstellar medium as the free streaming solar wind, which modulates and impacts the near-Earth space weather. The precise source regions of different structures in the solar wind, their formation height, and the heating of the solar atmosphere are inextricably linked and unsolved problems in astrophysics. Observations suggest correlations between Coronal holes (CHs), which are cool, intensity deficit structures in the solar corona, with structures in the solar wind. Observations also suggest the local plasma heating in the corona through power-law distributed impulsive events. In this thesis, we use narrowband photometric, spectroscopic, and disc-integrated emission of the solar atmosphere ranging from Near Ultraviolet to X-rays along with in-situ solar wind measurements to understand (i). the source regions of the solar wind, (ii). the underlying mechanism of solar coronal heating, and (iii). the differentiation in dynamics of CHs with the background Quiet Sun (QS) regions, which do not show any significant signature of the solar wind. We leverage machine learning and numerical modeling tools to develop solar wind forecasting codes using interpretable AI, inversion codes to infer the properties of impulsive events and to understand the differences in the thermodynamics of CHs and QS regions. We finally present a unified scenario of solar wind emergence and heating in the solar atmosphere and discuss the implications of inferences from this thesis.

Sujit Roy, Johannes Schmude, Rohit Lal et al.

Heliophysics is central to understanding and forecasting space weather events and solar activity. Despite decades of high-resolution observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), most models remain task-specific and constrained by scarce labeled data, limiting their capacity to generalize across solar phenomena. We introduce Surya, a 366M parameter foundation model for heliophysics designed to learn general-purpose solar representations from multi-instrument SDO observations, including eight Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) channels and five Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) products. Surya employs a spatiotemporal transformer architecture with spectral gating and long--short range attention, pretrained on high-resolution solar image forecasting tasks and further optimized through autoregressive rollout tuning. Zero-shot evaluations demonstrate its ability to forecast solar dynamics and flare events, while downstream fine-tuning with parameter-efficient Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) shows strong performance on solar wind forecasting, active region segmentation, solar flare forecasting, and EUV spectra. Surya is the first foundation model in heliophysics that uses time advancement as a pretext task on full-resolution SDO data. Its novel architecture and performance suggest that the model is able to learn the underlying physics behind solar evolution.

Sujit Roy, Dinesha V. Hegde, Johannes Schmude et al.

This paper introduces a high resolution, machine learning-ready heliophysics dataset derived from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), specifically designed to advance machine learning (ML) applications in solar physics and space weather forecasting. The dataset includes processed imagery from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), spanning a solar cycle from May 2010 to July 2024. To ensure suitability for ML tasks, the data has been preprocessed, including correction of spacecraft roll angles, orbital adjustments, exposure normalization, and degradation compensation. We also provide auxiliary application benchmark datasets complementing the core SDO dataset. These provide benchmark applications for central heliophysics and space weather tasks such as active region segmentation, active region emergence forecasting, coronal field extrapolation, solar flare prediction, solar EUV spectra prediction, and solar wind speed estimation. By establishing a unified, standardized data collection, this dataset aims to facilitate benchmarking, enhance reproducibility, and accelerate the development of AI-driven models for critical space weather prediction tasks, bridging gaps between solar physics, machine learning, and operational forecasting.

Pranava Seth, Vishal Upendran, Megha Anand et al.

The Solar Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope(SUIT) onboard Aditya-L1 is an imager that observes the solar photosphere and chromosphere through observations in the wavelength range of 200-400 nm. A comprehensive understanding of the plasma and thermodynamic properties of chromospheric and photospheric morphological structures requires a large sample statistical study, necessitating the development of automatic feature detection methods. To this end, we develop the feature detection algorithm SPACE-SUIT: Solar Phenomena Analysis and Classification using Enhanced vision techniques for SUIT, to detect and classify the solar chromospheric features to be observed from SUIT's Mg II k filter. Specifically, we target plage regions, sunspots, filaments, and off-limb structures. SPACE uses YOLO, a neural network-based model to identify regions of interest. We train and validate SPACE using mock-SUIT images developed from Interface Region Imaging Spectrometer(IRIS) full-disk mosaic images in Mg II k line, while we also perform detection on Level-1 SUIT data. SPACE achieves an approximate precision of 0.788, recall 0.863 and MAP of 0.874 on the validation mock SUIT FITS dataset. Given the manual labeling of our dataset, we perform "self-validation" by applying statistical measures and Tamura features on the ground truth and predicted bounding boxes. We find the distributions of entropy, contrast, dissimilarity, and energy to show differences in the features. These differences are qualitatively captured by the detected regions predicted by SPACE and validated with the observed SUIT images, even in the absence of labeled ground truth. This work not only develops a chromospheric feature extractor but also demonstrates the effectiveness of statistical metrics and Tamura features for distinguishing chromospheric features, offering independent validation for future detection schemes.

Panagiotis Tigas, Téo Bloch, Vishal Upendran et al.

Modeling and forecasting the solar wind-driven global magnetic field perturbations is an open challenge. Current approaches depend on simulations of computationally demanding models like the Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model or sampling spatially and temporally through sparse ground-based stations (SuperMAG). In this paper, we develop a Deep Learning model that forecasts in Spherical Harmonics space 2, replacing reliance on MHD models and providing global coverage at one minute cadence, improving over the current state-of-the-art which relies on feature engineering. We evaluate the performance in SuperMAG dataset (improved by 14.53%) and MHD simulations (improved by 24.35%). Additionally, we evaluate the extrapolation performance of the spherical harmonics reconstruction based on sparse ground-based stations (SuperMAG), showing that spherical harmonics can reliably reconstruct the global magnetic field as evaluated on MHD simulation.