Valentin Thomas

Jincheng Mei, Wesley Chung, Valentin Thomas et al. · deepmind, mila

We study the effect of baselines in on-policy stochastic policy gradient optimization, and close the gap between the theory and practice of policy optimization methods. Our first contribution is to show that the \emph{state value} baseline allows on-policy stochastic \emph{natural} policy gradient (NPG) to converge to a globally optimal policy at an $O(1/t)$ rate, which was not previously known. The analysis relies on two novel findings: the expected progress of the NPG update satisfies a stochastic version of the non-uniform Łojasiewicz (NŁ) inequality, and with probability 1 the state value baseline prevents the optimal action's probability from vanishing, thus ensuring sufficient exploration. Importantly, these results provide a new understanding of the role of baselines in stochastic policy gradient: by showing that the variance of natural policy gradient estimates remains unbounded with or without a baseline, we find that variance reduction \emph{cannot} explain their utility in this setting. Instead, the analysis reveals that the primary effect of the value baseline is to \textbf{reduce the aggressiveness of the updates} rather than their variance. That is, we demonstrate that a finite variance is \emph{not necessary} for almost sure convergence of stochastic NPG, while controlling update aggressiveness is both necessary and sufficient. Additional experimental results verify these theoretical findings.

Alexandre Piche, Valentin Thomas, Joseph Marino et al. · mila

Bootstrapping is behind much of the successes of Deep Reinforcement Learning. However, learning the value function via bootstrapping often leads to unstable training due to fast-changing target values. Target Networks are employed to stabilize training by using an additional set of lagging parameters to estimate the target values. Despite the popularity of Target Networks, their effect on the optimization is still misunderstood. In this work, we show that they act as an implicit regularizer. This regularizer has disadvantages such as being inflexible and non convex. To overcome these issues, we propose an explicit Functional Regularization that is a convex regularizer in function space and can easily be tuned. We analyze the convergence of our method theoretically and empirically demonstrate that replacing Target Networks with the more theoretically grounded Functional Regularization approach leads to better sample efficiency and performance improvements.

Junwei Ma, Nour Shaheen, Alex Labach et al.

Deep tabular modelling increasingly relies on in-context learning where, during inference, a model receives a set of $(x,y)$ pairs as context and predicts labels for new inputs without weight updates. We challenge the prevailing view that broad generalization here requires pre-training on large synthetic corpora (e.g., TabPFN priors) or a large collection of real data (e.g., TabDPT training datasets), discovering that a relatively small amount of data suffices for generalization. We find that simple self-supervised pre-training on just a \emph{single} real table can produce surprisingly strong transfer across heterogeneous benchmarks. By systematically pre-training and evaluating on many diverse datasets, we analyze what aspects of the data are most important for building a Tabular Foundation Model (TFM) generalizing across domains. We then connect this to the pre-training procedure shared by most TFMs and show that the number and quality of \emph{tasks} one can construct from a dataset is key to downstream performance.

Junwei Ma, Valentin Thomas, Rasa Hosseinzadeh et al. · mila

Tabular data is one of the most ubiquitous sources of information worldwide, spanning a wide variety of domains. This inherent heterogeneity has slowed the development of Tabular Foundation Models (TFMs) capable of fast generalization to unseen datasets. In-Context Learning (ICL) has recently emerged as a promising solution for TFMs, enabling dynamic adaptation to new tasks without additional tuning. While many studies have attempted to re-purpose large language models for tabular ICL, they have had limited success, so recent works have focused on developing tabular-specific foundation models. In this work, we propose an approach to combine ICL-based retrieval with self supervised learning to train tabular foundation models. We also investigate the utility of real vs. synthetic data for model pre-training, and show that real data can contain useful signal not easily captured in synthetic training. Specifically, we show that incorporating real data during the pre-training phase can lead to significantly faster training and better downstream generalization to unseen data. Our resulting model, TabDPT, achieves top performance on both regression (CTR23) and classification (CC18) benchmarks. Importantly, we also demonstrate that with our pre-training procedure, scaling both model and data size leads to consistent performance improvements that follow power laws. This echoes scaling laws in LLMs and other foundation models, and suggests that Internet-scale TFMs can be achievable. We open-source our full pipeline: inference code including trained model weights can be found at github.com/layer6ai-labs/TabDPT-inference, and the training code to reproduce experiments can be found at github.com/layer6ai-labs/TabDPT-training.

Vahid Balazadeh, Hamidreza Kamkari, Valentin Thomas et al.

Causal effect estimation from observational data is fundamental across various applications. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from dozens of specialized methods demands substantial manual effort and domain expertise. We present CausalPFN, a single transformer that amortizes this workflow: trained once on a large library of simulated data-generating processes that satisfy ignorability, it infers causal effects for new observational datasets out of the box. CausalPFN combines ideas from Bayesian causal inference with the large-scale training protocol of prior-fitted networks (PFNs), learning to map raw observations directly to causal effects without any task-specific adjustment. Our approach achieves superior average performance on heterogeneous and average treatment effect estimation benchmarks (IHDP, Lalonde, ACIC). Moreover, it shows competitive performance for real-world policy making on uplift modeling tasks. CausalPFN provides calibrated uncertainty estimates to support reliable decision-making based on Bayesian principles. This ready-to-use model requires no further training or tuning and takes a step toward automated causal inference (https://github.com/vdblm/CausalPFN/).

Junwei Ma, Valentin Thomas, Guangwei Yu et al. · mila

Foundation models have revolutionized tasks in computer vision and natural language processing. However, in the realm of tabular data, tree-based models like XGBoost continue to dominate. TabPFN, a transformer model tailored for tabular data, mirrors recent foundation models in its exceptional in-context learning capability, being competitive with XGBoost's performance without the need for task-specific training or hyperparameter tuning. Despite its promise, TabPFN's applicability is hindered by its data size constraint, limiting its use in real-world scenarios. To address this, we present in-context data distillation (ICD), a novel methodology that effectively eliminates these constraints by optimizing TabPFN's context. ICD efficiently enables TabPFN to handle significantly larger datasets with a fixed memory budget, improving TabPFN's quadratic memory complexity but at the cost of a linear number of tuning steps. Notably, TabPFN, enhanced with ICD, demonstrates very strong performance against established tree-based models and modern deep learning methods on 48 large tabular datasets from OpenML.

Valentin Thomas, Junwei Ma, Rasa Hosseinzadeh et al.

Tabular data is a pervasive modality spanning a wide range of domains, and the inherent diversity poses a considerable challenge for deep learning. Recent advancements using transformer-based in-context learning have shown promise on smaller and less complex datasets, but have struggled to scale to larger and more complex ones. To address this limitation, we propose a combination of retrieval and fine-tuning: we can adapt the transformer to a local subset of the data by collecting nearest neighbours, and then perform task-specific fine-tuning with this retrieved set of neighbours in context. Using TabPFN as the base model -- currently the best tabular in-context learner -- and applying our retrieval and fine-tuning scheme on top results in what we call a locally-calibrated PFN, or LoCalPFN. We conduct extensive evaluation on 95 datasets curated by TabZilla from OpenML, upon which we establish a new state-of-the-art with LoCalPFN -- even with respect to tuned tree-based models. Notably, we show a significant boost in performance compared to the base in-context model, demonstrating the efficacy of our approach and advancing the frontier of deep learning in tabular data.

Alexandre Piché, Valentin Thomas, Rafael Pardinas et al.

Bootstrapping is behind much of the successes of deep Reinforcement Learning. However, learning the value function via bootstrapping often leads to unstable training due to fast-changing target values. Target Networks are employed to stabilize training by using an additional set of lagging parameters to estimate the target values. Despite the popularity of Target Networks, their effect on the optimization is still misunderstood. In this work, we show that they act as an implicit regularizer which can be beneficial in some cases, but also have disadvantages such as being inflexible and can result in instabilities, even when vanilla TD(0) converges. To overcome these issues, we propose an explicit Functional Regularization alternative that is flexible and a convex regularizer in function space and we theoretically study its convergence. We conduct an experimental study across a range of environments, discount factors, and off-policiness data collections to investigate the effectiveness of the regularization induced by Target Networks and Functional Regularization in terms of performance, accuracy, and stability. Our findings emphasize that Functional Regularization can be used as a drop-in replacement for Target Networks and result in performance improvement. Furthermore, adjusting both the regularization weight and the network update period in Functional Regularization can result in further performance improvements compared to solely adjusting the network update period as typically done with Target Networks. Our approach also enhances the ability to networks to recover accurate $Q$-values.

Wesley Chung, Valentin Thomas, Marlos C. Machado et al.

Bandit and reinforcement learning (RL) problems can often be framed as optimization problems where the goal is to maximize average performance while having access only to stochastic estimates of the true gradient. Traditionally, stochastic optimization theory predicts that learning dynamics are governed by the curvature of the loss function and the noise of the gradient estimates. In this paper we demonstrate that this is not the case for bandit and RL problems. To allow our analysis to be interpreted in light of multi-step MDPs, we focus on techniques derived from stochastic optimization principles (e.g., natural policy gradient and EXP3) and we show that some standard assumptions from optimization theory are violated in these problems. We present theoretical results showing that, at least for bandit problems, curvature and noise are not sufficient to explain the learning dynamics and that seemingly innocuous choices like the baseline can determine whether an algorithm converges. These theoretical findings match our empirical evaluation, which we extend to multi-state MDPs.

Valentin Thomas, Fabian Pedregosa, Bart van Merriënboer et al.

The speed at which one can minimize an expected loss using stochastic methods depends on two properties: the curvature of the loss and the variance of the gradients. While most previous works focus on one or the other of these properties, we explore how their interaction affects optimization speed. Further, as the ultimate goal is good generalization performance, we clarify how both curvature and noise are relevant to properly estimate the generalization gap. Realizing that the limitations of some existing works stems from a confusion between these matrices, we also clarify the distinction between the Fisher matrix, the Hessian, and the covariance matrix of the gradients.

Valentin Thomas, Emmanuel Bengio, William Fedus et al.

It has been postulated that a good representation is one that disentangles the underlying explanatory factors of variation. However, it remains an open question what kind of training framework could potentially achieve that. Whereas most previous work focuses on the static setting (e.g., with images), we postulate that some of the causal factors could be discovered if the learner is allowed to interact with its environment. The agent can experiment with different actions and observe their effects. More specifically, we hypothesize that some of these factors correspond to aspects of the environment which are independently controllable, i.e., that there exists a policy and a learnable feature for each such aspect of the environment, such that this policy can yield changes in that feature with minimal changes to other features that explain the statistical variations in the observed data. We propose a specific objective function to find such factors, and verify experimentally that it can indeed disentangle independently controllable aspects of the environment without any extrinsic reward signal.

Valentin Thomas, Jules Pondard, Emmanuel Bengio et al.

It has been postulated that a good representation is one that disentangles the underlying explanatory factors of variation. However, it remains an open question what kind of training framework could potentially achieve that. Whereas most previous work focuses on the static setting (e.g., with images), we postulate that some of the causal factors could be discovered if the learner is allowed to interact with its environment. The agent can experiment with different actions and observe their effects. More specifically, we hypothesize that some of these factors correspond to aspects of the environment which are independently controllable, i.e., that there exists a policy and a learnable feature for each such aspect of the environment, such that this policy can yield changes in that feature with minimal changes to other features that explain the statistical variations in the observed data. We propose a specific objective function to find such factors and verify experimentally that it can indeed disentangle independently controllable aspects of the environment without any extrinsic reward signal.

Emmanuel Bengio, Valentin Thomas, Joelle Pineau et al.

Finding features that disentangle the different causes of variation in real data is a difficult task, that has nonetheless received considerable attention in static domains like natural images. Interactive environments, in which an agent can deliberately take actions, offer an opportunity to tackle this task better, because the agent can experiment with different actions and observe their effects. We introduce the idea that in interactive environments, latent factors that control the variation in observed data can be identified by figuring out what the agent can control. We propose a naive method to find factors that explain or measure the effect of the actions of a learner, and test it in illustrative experiments.