Gongjun Xu

Feifan Jiang, Yinan Bu, Shihao Wu et al.

Network data are ubiquitous across the social sciences, biology, and information systems. Generating realistic synthetic network data has broad applications from network simulation to scientific discovery. However, many existing black-box approaches for network generation tend to overfit observed data while overlooking characteristic network structure, and incur substantial computational overhead at scale. These practical challenges call for synthetic network generation methods that are both efficient and capable of capturing structural properties of networks. In this paper, we introduce Synthetic Network Generation via Latent Embedding Reconstruction (SyNGLER), a general and efficient framework for synthetic network generation that builds on latent space network models. Given an observed network, SyNGLER first learns low-dimensional latent node embeddings via a latent space network model and then reconstructs the latent space by building a distribution-free generator over these embeddings. For generation, SyNGLER first samples (or resamples) node embeddings from the generator in the latent space and then produces synthetic networks using the latent space network model. Through the latent space framework, SyNGLER preserves unique characteristics in networks such as sparsity and node degree heterogeneity, while allowing for efficient training with lower computational cost than many existing deep architectures. We provide theoretical guarantees by developing consistency results on the distance between the true and synthetic edge distributions. Empirical studies further demonstrate the effectiveness of SyNGLER, which efficiently produces networks that better preserve key network characteristics such as network moments and degree distributions compared with existing approaches. Code is available at https://github.com/FeifanJiang/syngler.

Peiyao Cai, Chengyu Cui, Felipe Maia Polo et al.

We propose a statistical framework built on latent variable modeling for scaling laws of large language models (LLMs). Our work is motivated by the rapid emergence of numerous new LLM families with distinct architectures and training strategies, evaluated on an increasing number of benchmarks. This heterogeneity makes a single global scaling curve inadequate for capturing how performance varies across families and benchmarks. To address this, we propose a latent variable modeling framework in which each LLM family is associated with a latent variable that captures the common underlying features in that family. An LLM's performance on different benchmarks is then driven by its latent skills, which are jointly determined by the latent variable and the model's own observable features. We develop an estimation procedure for this latent variable model and establish its statistical properties. We also design efficient numerical algorithms that support estimation and various downstream tasks. Empirically, we evaluate the approach on 12 widely used benchmarks from the Open LLM Leaderboard (v1/v2).

Jiaqi Huang, Gongjun Xu, Ji Zhu

Engression is a recently proposed and effective framework for conditional distribution learning. Its multi-step Reverse Markov extension further improves generative flexibility by decomposing complex conditional sampling into sequential reverse transitions. Despite their strong empirical performance, rigorous finite-sample statistical guarantees for these methods remain unavailable. In this paper, under deep neural network parameterizations, we establish nonasymptotic convergence bounds for Engression by directly controlling the Energy Distance between the learned and target conditional distributions. For the Reverse Markov framework, we further develop an Energy-Distance-based chain rule that enables a rigorous analysis of error propagation across reverse steps. Our analysis yields corresponding excess-risk bounds that are near-optimal up to logarithmic factors relative to the classical minimax rate over a general Hölder class.

Chengyu Cui, Gongjun Xu

Nonconvex methods have emerged as a dominant approach for low-rank matrix estimation, a problem that arises widely in machine learning and AI for learning and representing high-dimensional data. Existing analyses for these methods often require additional regularization to mitigate nonconvexity, even though such regularization is often unnecessary in practice. Moreover, most analyses rely on problem-specific arguments that are difficult to generalize to more complex settings. In this paper, we develop a theoretical framework for studying nonconvex procedures across a broad class of low-rank matrix estimation problems. Rather than focusing on a specific model, we reveal a fundamental mechanism that explains why nonconvex procedures can behave well in low-rank estimation. Our key device is a {\it benign regularizer} that does not alter the original update rule, but yields an equivalent locally strongly convex formulation of the algorithm. This perspective uncovers a disguised convexity inherent in the nonconvex procedure and provides a new route to theoretical guarantees for nonconvex low-rank matrix estimation.

Felipe Maia Polo, Lucas Weber, Leshem Choshen et al.

The versatility of large language models (LLMs) led to the creation of diverse benchmarks that thoroughly test a variety of language models' abilities. These benchmarks consist of tens of thousands of examples making evaluation of LLMs very expensive. In this paper, we investigate strategies to reduce the number of evaluations needed to assess the performance of an LLM on several key benchmarks. For example, we show that to accurately estimate the performance of an LLM on MMLU, a popular multiple-choice QA benchmark consisting of 14K examples, it is sufficient to evaluate this LLM on 100 curated examples. We release evaluation tools and tiny versions of popular benchmarks: Open LLM Leaderboard, MMLU, HELM, and AlpacaEval 2.0. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that these tools and tiny benchmarks are sufficient to reliably and efficiently reproduce the original evaluation results.

Felipe Maia Polo, Xinhe Wang, Mikhail Yurochkin et al.

Large language models are increasingly used as judges (LLM-as-a-judge) to evaluate model outputs at scale, but their assessments often diverge systematically from human judgments. We present Bridge, a unified statistical framework that explicitly bridges human and LLM evaluations under both absolute scoring and pairwise comparison paradigms. Bridge posits a latent human preference score for each prompt-response pair and models LLM deviations as linear transformations of covariates that capture sources of discrepancies. This offers a simple and principled framework for refining LLM ratings and characterizing systematic discrepancies between humans and LLMs. We provide an efficient fitting algorithm with asymptotic guarantees for statistical inference. Using six LLM judges and two benchmarks (BigGen Bench and Chatbot Arena), Bridge achieves higher agreement with human ratings (accuracy, calibration, and KL divergence) and exposes systematic human-LLM gaps.

Chenchen Ma, Gongjun Xu

Cognitive Diagnosis Models (CDMs) are a special family of discrete latent variable models that are widely used in modern educational, psychological, social and biological sciences. A key component of CDMs is a binary $Q$-matrix characterizing the dependence structure between the items and the latent attributes. Additionally, researchers also assume in many applications certain hierarchical structures among the latent attributes to characterize their dependence. In most CDM applications, the attribute-attribute hierarchical structures, the item-attribute $Q$-matrix, the item-level diagnostic model, as well as the number of latent attributes, need to be fully or partially pre-specified, which however may be subjective and misspecified as noted by many recent studies. This paper considers the problem of jointly learning these latent and hierarchical structures in CDMs from observed data with minimal model assumptions. Specifically, a penalized likelihood approach is proposed to select the number of attributes and estimate the latent and hierarchical structures simultaneously. An efficient expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm and a latent structure recovery algorithm are developed, and statistical consistency theory is also established under mild conditions. The good performance of the proposed method is illustrated by simulation studies and a real data application in educational assessment.

Yuqi Gu, Gongjun Xu

Hierarchical Latent Attribute Models (HLAMs) are a family of discrete latent variable models that are attracting increasing attention in educational, psychological, and behavioral sciences. The key ingredients of an HLAM include a binary structural matrix and a directed acyclic graph specifying hierarchical constraints on the configurations of latent attributes. These components encode practitioners' design information and carry important scientific meanings. Despite the popularity of HLAMs, the fundamental identifiability issue remains unaddressed. The existence of the attribute hierarchy graph leads to degenerate parameter space, and the potentially unknown structural matrix further complicates the identifiability problem. This paper addresses this issue of identifying the latent structure and model parameters underlying an HLAM. We develop sufficient and necessary identifiability conditions. These results directly and sharply characterize the different impacts on identifiability cast by different attribute types in the graph. The proposed conditions not only provide insights into diagnostic test designs under the attribute hierarchy, but also serve as tools to assess the validity of an estimated HLAM.

Yuqi Gu, Gongjun Xu

Structured latent attribute models (SLAMs) are a special family of discrete latent variable models widely used in social and biological sciences. This paper considers the problem of learning significant attribute patterns from a SLAM with potentially high-dimensional configurations of the latent attributes. We address the theoretical identifiability issue, propose a penalized likelihood method for the selection of the attribute patterns, and further establish the selection consistency in such an overfitted SLAM with diverging number of latent patterns. The good performance of the proposed methodology is illustrated by simulation studies and two real datasets in educational assessment.