Yann Billeter

David F. Jenny, Yann Billeter, Mrinmaya Sachan et al. · eth-zurich

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has sparked intense debate regarding the prevalence of bias in these models and its mitigation. Yet, as exemplified by both results on debiasing methods in the literature and reports of alignment-related defects from the wider community, bias remains a poorly understood topic despite its practical relevance. To enhance the understanding of the internal causes of bias, we analyse LLM bias through the lens of causal fairness analysis, which enables us to both comprehend the origins of bias and reason about its downstream consequences and mitigation. To operationalize this framework, we propose a prompt-based method for the extraction of confounding and mediating attributes which contribute to the LLM decision process. By applying Activity Dependency Networks (ADNs), we then analyse how these attributes influence an LLM's decision process. We apply our method to LLM ratings of argument quality in political debates. We find that the observed disparate treatment can at least in part be attributed to confounding and mitigating attributes and model misalignment, and discuss the consequences of our findings for human-AI alignment and bias mitigation. Our code and data are at https://github.com/david-jenny/LLM-Political-Study.

Frédéric Berdoz, Yann Billeter, Yann Vonlanthen et al.

Opinion modeling aims to capture individual or group political preferences, enabling applications such as digital democracies, where models could help shape fairer and more popular policies. Given their versatility, strong generalization capabilities, and demonstrated success across diverse text-to-text applications, large language models (LLMs) are natural candidates for this task. However, due to their statistical nature and limited causal understanding, they tend to produce biased opinions when prompted naively. In this work, we study whether reasoning can improve opinion alignment. Motivated by the recent advancement in mathematical reasoning enabled by reinforcement learning (RL), we train models to produce profile-consistent answers through structured reasoning. We evaluate our approach on three datasets covering U.S., European, and Swiss politics. Results indicate that reasoning enhances opinion modeling and is competitive with strong baselines, but does not fully remove bias, highlighting the need for additional mechanisms to build faithful political digital twins using LLMs. By releasing both our method and datasets, we establish a solid baseline to support future research on LLM opinion alignment.