Stephen Law

Xuhui Lin, Stephen Law, Nanjiang Chen et al.

Embodied agents that navigate cities rely on world models that predict how their surroundings will change as they move. But for navigation, what matters is not what the buildings look like; it is where the agent can go. Most world models nonetheless predict appearance, learning how a scene looks rather than the space an agent can move through. Those that do target geometry, such as bird's-eye-view occupancy grids, flatten the three-dimensional environment onto a ground plane, discarding the above-ground and multi-level structure that shapes real navigation. What is missing is a predictive target that captures the navigable geometry an agent actually traverses, without photometric entanglement and without collapsing the third dimension. Our key idea is to model the open volume between buildings, the negative space, encoded as a 3D isovist: a spherical visibility-depth map recording the distance to the nearest surface in every direction. We introduce an embodied world model that predicts the next isovist from a short history of past isovists and a movement action. The prediction is formulated as a depth residual so the decoder inherits sharp building edges, trained with self-rollout scheduled sampling to keep corrupted context on the geometry manifold, and equipped with a persistent latent bird's-eye-view spatial map for cross-path consistency. Our central finding is emergent and unexpected: a single city-blind model trained on Manhattan and Paris develops a cross-city spatial signature, with city identity linearly decodable from its temporal latents far above single-frame baselines, so the signature lives in the learned dynamics rather than in appearance. The representation is lightweight, interpretable, and reproducible, offering a geometric substrate for spatial reasoning in embodied AI, robotics, and urban analysis, released with an open dataset and pipeline.

Xiaowei Gao, Xinke Jiang, Dingyi Zhuang et al.

Traffic accidents present substantial challenges to human safety and socio-economic development in urban areas. Developing a reliable and responsible traffic accident prediction model is crucial to addressing growing public safety concerns and enhancing the safety of urban mobility systems. Traditional methods face limitations at fine spatiotemporal scales due to the sporadic nature of highrisk accidents and the predominance of non-accident characteristics. Furthermore, while most current models show promising occurrence prediction, they overlook the uncertainties arising from the inherent nature of accidents, and then fail to adequately map the hierarchical ranking of accident risk values for more precise insights. To address these issues, we introduce the Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Tweedie Graph Neural Network STZITDGNN -- the first uncertainty-aware probabilistic graph deep learning model in roadlevel traffic accident prediction for multisteps. This model integrates the interpretability of the statistical Tweedie family model and the expressive power of graph neural networks. Its decoder innovatively employs a compound Tweedie model,a Poisson distribution to model the frequency of accident occurrences and a Gamma distribution to assess injury severity, supplemented by a zeroinflated component to effectively identify exessive nonincident instances. Empirical tests using realworld traffic data from London, UK, demonstrate that the STZITDGNN surpasses other baseline models across multiple benchmarks and metrics, including accident risk value prediction, uncertainty minimisation, non-accident road identification and accident occurrence accuracy. Our study demonstrates that STZTIDGNN can effectively inform targeted road monitoring, thereby improving urban road safety strategies.

Steven Stalder, Michele Volpi, Nicolas Büttner et al.

Cities around the world face a critical shortage of affordable and decent housing. Despite its critical importance for policy, our ability to effectively monitor and track progress in urban housing is limited. Deep learning-based computer vision methods applied to street-level images have been successful in the measurement of socioeconomic and environmental inequalities but did not fully utilize temporal images to track urban change as time-varying labels are often unavailable. We used self-supervised methods to measure change in London using 15 million street images taken between 2008 and 2021. Our novel adaptation of Barlow Twins, Street2Vec, embeds urban structure while being invariant to seasonal and daily changes without manual annotations. It outperformed generic embeddings, successfully identified point-level change in London's housing supply from street-level images, and distinguished between major and minor change. This capability can provide timely information for urban planning and policy decisions toward more liveable, equitable, and sustainable cities.

Zhenyuan Yang, Xuhui Lin, Qinyi He et al.

The emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) and multimodal foundation models (FMs) has generated heightened interest in their applications that integrate vision and language. This paper investigates the capabilities of ChatGPT-4V and Gemini Pro for Street View Imagery, Built Environment, and Interior by evaluating their performance across various tasks. The assessments include street furniture identification, pedestrian and car counts, and road width measurement in Street View Imagery; building function classification, building age analysis, building height analysis, and building structure classification in the Built Environment; and interior room classification, interior design style analysis, interior furniture counts, and interior length measurement in Interior. The results reveal proficiency in length measurement, style analysis, question answering, and basic image understanding, but highlight limitations in detailed recognition and counting tasks. While zero-shot learning shows potential, performance varies depending on the problem domains and image complexities. This study provides new insights into the strengths and weaknesses of multimodal foundation models for practical challenges in Street View Imagery, Built Environment, and Interior. Overall, the findings demonstrate foundational multimodal intelligence, emphasizing the potential of FMs to drive forward interdisciplinary applications at the intersection of computer vision and language.

John Francis, Stephen Law

Information on urban tree canopies is fundamental to mitigating climate change [1] as well as improving quality of life [2]. Urban tree planting initiatives face a lack of up-to-date data about the horizontal and vertical dimensions of the tree canopy in cities. We present a pipeline that utilizes LiDAR data as ground-truth and then trains a multi-task machine learning model to generate reliable estimates of tree cover and canopy height in urban areas using multi-source multi-spectral satellite imagery for the case study of Chicago.

Xiaowei Gao, James Haworth, Ilya Ilyankou et al.

Predicting traffic accidents is the key to sustainable city management, which requires effective address of the dynamic and complex spatiotemporal characteristics of cities. Current data-driven models often struggle with data sparsity and typically overlook the integration of diverse urban data sources and the high-order dependencies within them. Additionally, they frequently rely on predefined topologies or weights, limiting their adaptability in spatiotemporal predictions. To address these issues, we introduce the Spatiotemporal Multiview Adaptive HyperGraph Learning (SMA-Hyper) model, a dynamic deep learning framework designed for traffic accident prediction. Building on previous research, this innovative model incorporates dual adaptive spatiotemporal graph learning mechanisms that enable high-order cross-regional learning through hypergraphs and dynamic adaptation to evolving urban data. It also utilises contrastive learning to enhance global and local data representations in sparse datasets and employs an advance attention mechanism to fuse multiple views of accident data and urban functional features, thereby enriching the contextual understanding of risk factors. Extensive testing on the London traffic accident dataset demonstrates that the SMA-Hyper model significantly outperforms baseline models across various temporal horizons and multistep outputs, affirming the effectiveness of its multiview fusion and adaptive learning strategies. The interpretability of the results further underscores its potential to improve urban traffic management and safety by leveraging complex spatiotemporal urban data, offering a scalable framework adaptable to diverse urban environments.

Xinglei Wang, Tao Cheng, Stephen Law et al.

Existing methods for learning urban space representations from Point-of-Interest (POI) data face several limitations, including issues with geographical delineation, inadequate spatial information modelling, underutilisation of POI semantic attributes, and computational inefficiencies. To address these issues, we propose CaLLiPer (Contrastive Language-Location Pre-training), a novel representation learning model that directly embeds continuous urban spaces into vector representations that can capture the spatial and semantic distribution of urban environment. This model leverages a multimodal contrastive learning objective, aligning location embeddings with textual POI descriptions, thereby bypassing the need for complex training corpus construction and negative sampling. We validate CaLLiPer's effectiveness by applying it to learning urban space representations in London, UK, where it demonstrates 5-15% improvement in predictive performance for land use classification and socioeconomic mapping tasks compared to state-of-the-art methods. Visualisations of the learned representations further illustrate our model's advantages in capturing spatial variations in urban semantics with high accuracy and fine resolution. Additionally, CaLLiPer achieves reduced training time, showcasing its efficiency and scalability. This work provides a promising pathway for scalable, semantically rich urban space representation learning that can support the development of geospatial foundation models. The implementation code is available at https://github.com/xlwang233/CaLLiPer.

Xinglei Wang, Tao Cheng, Stephen Law et al.

Predicting individuals' next locations is a core task in human mobility modelling, with wide-ranging implications for urban planning, transportation, public policy and personalised mobility services. Traditional approaches largely depend on location embeddings learned from historical mobility patterns, limiting their ability to encode explicit spatial information, integrate rich urban semantic context, and accommodate previously unseen locations. To address these challenges, we explore the application of CaLLiPer -- a multimodal representation learning framework that fuses spatial coordinates and semantic features of points of interest through contrastive learning -- for location embedding in individual mobility prediction. CaLLiPer's embeddings are spatially explicit, semantically enriched, and inductive by design, enabling robust prediction performance even in scenarios involving emerging locations. Through extensive experiments on four public mobility datasets under both conventional and inductive settings, we demonstrate that CaLLiPer consistently outperforms strong baselines, particularly excelling in inductive scenarios. Our findings highlight the potential of multimodal, inductive location embeddings to advance the capabilities of human mobility prediction systems. We also release the code and data (https://github.com/xlwang233/Into-the-Unknown) to foster reproducibility and future research.

Jason Tang, Stephen Law

Street-view perception models predict subjective attributes such as safety at scale, but remain correlational: they do not identify which localized visual changes would plausibly shift human judgement for a specific scene. We propose a lever-based interventional counterfactual framework that recasts scene-level explainability as a bounded search over structured counterfactual edits. Each lever specifies a semantic concept, spatial support, intervention direction, and constrained edit template. Candidate edits are generated through prompt-conditioned image editing and retained only if they satisfy validity checks for same-place preservation, locality, realism, and plausibility. In a pilot across 50 scenes from five cities, the framework reveals preliminary proxy-based directional patterns and a practical failure taxonomy under prompt-only editing, with Mobility Infrastructure and Physical Maintenance showing the largest auxiliary safety shifts. Human pairwise judgements remain the ground-truth endpoint for future validation.

Stephen Law, Tao Yang, Nanjiang Chen et al.

Urban analytics increasingly relies on AI-driven trajectory analysis, yet current approaches suffer from methodological fragmentation: trajectory learning captures movement patterns but ignores spatial context, while spatial embedding methods encode street networks but miss temporal dynamics. Three gaps persist: (1) lack of joint training that integrates spatial and temporal representations, (2) origin-agnostic treatment that ignores directional asymmetries in navigation ($A \to B \ne B \to A$), and (3) over-reliance on auxiliary data (POIs, imagery) rather than fundamental geometric properties of urban space. We introduce a conditional trajectory encoder that jointly learns spatial and movement representations while preserving origin-dependent asymmetries using geometric features. This framework decomposes urban navigation into shared cognitive patterns and origin-specific spatial narratives, enabling quantitative measurement of cognitive asymmetries across starting locations. Our bidirectional LSTM processes visibility ratio and curvature features conditioned on learnable origin embeddings, decomposing representations into shared urban patterns and origin-specific signatures through contrastive learning. Results from six synthetic cities and real-world validation on Beijing's Xicheng District demonstrate that urban morphology creates systematic cognitive inequalities. This provides urban planners quantitative tools for assessing experiential equity, offers architects insights into layout decisions' cognitive impacts, and enables origin-aware analytics for navigation systems.

Minwei Zhao, Sanja Scepanovic, Stephen Law et al.

Understanding how urban socio-demographic and environmental factors relate with health is essential for public health and urban planning. However, traditional statistical methods struggle with nonlinear effects, while machine learning models often fail to capture geographical (nearby areas being more similar) and topological (unequal connectivity between places) effects in an interpretable way. To address this, we propose MedGNN, a spatio-topologically explicit framework that constructs a 2-hop spatial graph, integrating positional and locational node embeddings with urban characteristics in a graph neural network. Applied to MEDSAT, a comprehensive dataset covering over 150 environmental and socio-demographic factors and six prescription outcomes (depression, anxiety, diabetes, hypertension, asthma, and opioids) across 4,835 Greater London neighborhoods, MedGNN improved predictions by over 25% on average compared to baseline methods. Using depression prescriptions as a case study, we analyzed graph embeddings via geographical principal component analysis, identifying findings that: align with prior research (e.g., higher antidepressant prescriptions among older and White populations), contribute to ongoing debates (e.g., greenery linked to higher and NO2 to lower prescriptions), and warrant further study (e.g., canopy evaporation correlated with fewer prescriptions). These results demonstrate MedGNN's potential, and more broadly, of carefully applied machine learning, to advance transdisciplinary public health research.

Sanja Šćepanović, Sagar Joglekar, Stephen Law et al.

Urban greenery is often linked to better health, yet findings from past research have been inconsistent. One reason is that official greenery metrics measure the amount or nearness of greenery but ignore how often people actually may potentially see or use it in daily life. To address this gap, we introduced a new classification that separates on-road greenery, which people see while walking through streets, from off-road greenery, which requires planned visits. We did so by combining aerial imagery of Greater London and greenery data from OpenStreetMap with quantified greenery from over 100,000 Google Street View images and accessibility estimates based on 160,000 road segments. We linked these measures to 7.45 billion medical prescriptions issued by the National Health Service and processed through our methodology. These prescriptions cover five conditions: diabetes, hypertension, asthma, depression, and anxiety, as well as opioid use. As hypothesized, we found that green on-road was more strongly linked to better health than four widely used official measures. For example, hypertension prescriptions dropped by 3.68% in wards with on-road greenery above the median citywide level compared to those below it. If all below-median wards reached the citywide median in on-road greenery, prescription costs could fall by up to £3.15 million each year. These results suggest that greenery seen in daily life may be more relevant than public yet secluded greenery, and that official metrics commonly used in the literature have important limitations.

Thijs L van der Plas, Stephen Law, Michael JO Pocock

The growing demand for scalable biodiversity monitoring methods has fuelled interest in remote sensing data, due to its widespread availability and extensive coverage. Traditionally, the application of remote sensing to biodiversity research has focused on mapping and monitoring habitats, but with increasing availability of large-scale citizen-science wildlife observation data, recent methods have started to explore predicting multi-species presence directly from satellite images. This paper presents a new data set for predicting butterfly species presence from satellite data in the United Kingdom. We experimentally optimise a Resnet-based model to predict multi-species presence from 4-band satellite images, and find that this model especially outperforms the mean rate baseline for locations with high species biodiversity. To improve performance, we develop a soft, supervised contrastive regularisation loss that is tailored to probabilistic labels (such as species-presence data), and demonstrate that this improves prediction accuracy. In summary, our new data set and contrastive regularisation method contribute to the open challenge of accurately predicting species biodiversity from remote sensing data, which is key for efficient biodiversity monitoring.

John Francis, Stephen Law

We explore simple methods for adapting a trained multi-task UNet which predicts canopy cover and height to a new geographic setting using remotely sensed data without the need of training a domain-adaptive classifier and extensive fine-tuning. Extending previous research, we followed a selective alignment process to identify similar images in the two geographical domains and then tested an array of data-based unsupervised domain adaptation approaches in a zero-shot setting as well as with a small amount of fine-tuning. We find that the selective aligned data-based image matching methods produce promising results in a zero-shot setting, and even more so with a small amount of fine-tuning. These methods outperform both an untransformed baseline and a popular data-based image-to-image translation model. The best performing methods were pixel distribution adaptation and fourier domain adaptation on the canopy cover and height tasks respectively.

Sanja Šćepanović, Sagar Joglekar, Stephen Law et al.

The presence of people in an urban area throughout the day -- often called 'urban vitality' -- is one of the qualities world-class cities aspire to the most, yet it is one of the hardest to achieve. Back in the 1970s, Jane Jacobs theorized urban vitality and found that there are four conditions required for the promotion of life in cities: diversity of land use, small block sizes, the mix of economic activities, and concentration of people. To build proxies for those four conditions and ultimately test Jane Jacobs's theory at scale, researchers have had to collect both private and public data from a variety of sources, and that took decades. Here we propose the use of one single source of data, which happens to be publicly available: Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. In particular, since the first two conditions (diversity of land use and small block sizes) are visible to the naked eye from satellite imagery, we tested whether we could automatically extract them with a state-of-the-art deep-learning framework and whether, in the end, the extracted features could predict vitality. In six Italian cities for which we had call data records, we found that our framework is able to explain on average 55% of the variance in urban vitality extracted from those records.

Andrew Elliott, Stephen Law, Chris Russell

We present a simple regularization of adversarial perturbations based upon the perceptual loss. While the resulting perturbations remain imperceptible to the human eye, they differ from existing adversarial perturbations in that they are semi-sparse alterations that highlight objects and regions of interest while leaving the background unaltered. As a semantically meaningful adverse perturbations, it forms a bridge between counterfactual explanations and adversarial perturbations in the space of images. We evaluate our approach on several standard explainability benchmarks, namely, weak localization, insertion deletion, and the pointing game demonstrating that perceptually regularized counterfactuals are an effective explanation for image-based classifiers.

Stephen Law, Mateo Neira

Recent researches have shown the increasing use of machine learn-ing methods in geography and urban analytics, primarily to extract features and patterns from spatial and temporal data using a supervised approach. Researches integrating geographical processes in machine learning models and the use of unsupervised approacheson geographical data for knowledge discovery had been sparse. This research contributes to the ladder, where we show how latent variables learned from unsupervised learning methods on urbanimages can be used for geographic knowledge discovery. In particular, we propose a simple approach called Convolutional-PCA(ConvPCA) which are applied on both street level and street network images to find a set of uncorrelated and ordered visual latentcomponents. The approach allows for meaningful explanations using a combination of geographical and generative visualisations to explore the latent space, and to show how the learned representation can be used to predict urban characteristics such as streetquality and street network attributes. The research also finds that the visual components from the ConvPCA model achieves similaraccuracy when compared to less interpretable dimension reduction techniques.

Stephen Law, Brooks Paige, Chris Russell

When an individual purchases a home, they simultaneously purchase its structural features, its accessibility to work, and the neighborhood amenities. Some amenities, such as air quality, are measurable while others, such as the prestige or the visual impression of a neighborhood, are difficult to quantify. Despite the well-known impacts intangible housing features have on house prices, limited attention has been given to systematically quantifying these difficult to measure amenities. Two issues have led to this neglect. Not only do few quantitative methods exist that can measure the urban environment, but that the collection of such data is both costly and subjective. We show that street image and satellite image data can capture these urban qualities and improve the estimation of house prices. We propose a pipeline that uses a deep neural network model to automatically extract visual features from images to estimate house prices in London, UK. We make use of traditional housing features such as age, size, and accessibility as well as visual features from Google Street View images and Bing aerial images in estimating the house price model. We find encouraging results where learning to characterize the urban quality of a neighborhood improves house price prediction, even when generalizing to previously unseen London boroughs. We explore the use of non-linear vs. linear methods to fuse these cues with conventional models of house pricing, and show how the interpretability of linear models allows us to directly extract proxy variables for visual desirability of neighborhoods that are both of interest in their own right, and could be used as inputs to other econometric methods. This is particularly valuable as once the network has been trained with the training data, it can be applied elsewhere, allowing us to generate vivid dense maps of the visual appeal of London streets.