60.1AIJun 4
An Infectious Disease Spread Simulation Based on Large Language Model Decision MakingYonchanok Khaokaew, Ruochen Kong, Andreas Zufle et al.
Modelling individual decision-making during infectious disease outbreaks is crucial for understanding behavioural dynamics and informing effective public health interventions. Prior work has shown that large language models can simulate realistic human behaviour by generating agent decisions based on demographic prompts and situational context. We build on this foundation with a spatially grounded, agent-based simulation framework that integrates LLM-generated decisions about self-reported influenza-like illness into a census-based synthetic population of agents. Location is treated as a central feature: agents are assigned to spatial units within cities, capturing the spatial distributions of different demographic groups using real-world census data and enabling geographically diverse behavioural modelling. We implement and compare three decision scenarios, independent reasoning, household influence, and message framing, and simulate self-reporting outcomes in San Francisco and Atlanta. Results reveal that income and education are the dominant drivers of reporting rate variation, with smaller but consistent effects from geography, LLM model choice, and message framing. Our framework generates synthetic data that captures both social and geographic heterogeneity, supporting spatial epidemiological modelling and bias-aware behavioural analysis.
LGAug 18, 2025
Training Machine Learning Models on Human Spatio-temporal Mobility Data: An Experimental Study [Experiment Paper]Yueyang Liu, Lance Kennedy, Ruochen Kong et al.
Individual-level human mobility prediction has emerged as a significant topic of research with applications in infectious disease monitoring, child, and elderly care. Existing studies predominantly focus on the microscopic aspects of human trajectories: such as predicting short-term trajectories or the next location visited, while offering limited attention to macro-level mobility patterns and the corresponding life routines. In this paper, we focus on an underexplored problem in human mobility prediction: determining the best practices to train a machine learning model using historical data to forecast an individuals complete trajectory over the next days and weeks. In this experiment paper, we undertake a comprehensive experimental analysis of diverse models, parameter configurations, and training strategies, accompanied by an in-depth examination of the statistical distribution inherent in human mobility patterns. Our empirical evaluations encompass both Long Short-Term Memory and Transformer-based architectures, and further investigate how incorporating individual life patterns can enhance the effectiveness of the prediction. We show that explicitly including semantic information such as day-of-the-week and user-specific historical information can help the model better understand individual patterns of life and improve predictions. Moreover, since the absence of explicit user information is often missing due to user privacy, we show that the sampling of users may exacerbate data skewness and result in a substantial loss in predictive accuracy. To mitigate data imbalance and preserve diversity, we apply user semantic clustering with stratified sampling to ensure that the sampled dataset remains representative. Our results further show that small-batch stochastic gradient optimization improves model performance, especially when human mobility training data is limited.
SIMar 29, 2021
Dynamic Network Embedding SurveyGuotong Xue, Ming Zhong, Jianxin Li et al.
Since many real world networks are evolving over time, such as social networks and user-item networks, there are increasing research efforts on dynamic network embedding in recent years. They learn node representations from a sequence of evolving graphs but not only the latest network, for preserving both structural and temporal information from the dynamic networks. Due to the lack of comprehensive investigation of them, we give a survey of dynamic network embedding in this paper. Our survey inspects the data model, representation learning technique, evaluation and application of current related works and derives common patterns from them. Specifically, we present two basic data models, namely, discrete model and continuous model for dynamic networks. Correspondingly, we summarize two major categories of dynamic network embedding techniques, namely, structural-first and temporal-first that are adopted by most related works. Then we build a taxonomy that refines the category hierarchy by typical learning models. The popular experimental data sets and applications are also summarized. Lastly, we have a discussion of several distinct research topics in dynamic network embedding.