27.2NCMay 29
The Variance Brain Foundation Models Forgot: Third-Order Statistics Predict Cognition Where Billion-Parameter Models FailGiovanni Marraffini, Gabriel Mahuas, Trinidad Borrell et al.
Brain foundation models (BFMs) are self-supervised Transformers pretrained on fMRI data. We posit that these models should capture each subject's cognitive performance from their fMRI signal. Yet across three state-of-the-art BFMs and every readout we test, they predict cognition worse than a linear regression from the $\sim$80K parameters of the functional connectivity matrix (FC). The gap widens with scale: BrainLM's 650M model predicts cognition worse than its 111M. We attribute this to a \textbf{variance allocation problem}: BFM pretraining captures the variance components that dominate fMRI but not the higher-order structure that predicts cognition. Our per-cumulant analysis of the reconstructed signal shows that the second-order covariance is partially preserved, while the third-order co-skewness tensor is largely destroyed. To recover what BFMs lose, we design a linear pipeline that projects the fMRI signal into the subspace that best preserves its co-skewness and computes FC there. This \textbf{exceeds raw FC and every pretrained BFM} on every dataset and parcellation we test, outperforming prior state-of-the-art under controlled evaluation \textbf{with no pretraining and no GPU}. We \textbf{recover the raw-FC ceiling on BrainLM's forward pass} by finetuning with a loss targeted at this same subspace. This shows that the bottleneck is the pretraining objective, not the architecture or the model size.
LGNov 21, 2025
ReBaPL: Repulsive Bayesian Prompt LearningYassir Bendou, Omar Ezzahir, Eduardo Fernandes Montesuma et al.
Prompt learning has emerged as an effective technique for fine-tuning large-scale foundation models for downstream tasks. However, conventional prompt tuning methods are prone to overfitting and can struggle with out-of-distribution generalization. To address these limitations, Bayesian prompt learning has been proposed, which frames prompt optimization as a Bayesian inference problem to enhance robustness. This paper introduces Repulsive Bayesian Prompt Learning (ReBaPL), a novel method for Bayesian prompt learning, designed to efficiently explore the complex and often multimodal posterior landscape of prompts. Our method integrates a cyclical step-size schedule with a stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (SGHMC) algorithm, enabling alternating phases of exploration to discover new modes, and exploitation to refine existing modes. Furthermore, we introduce a repulsive force derived from a potential function over probability metrics (including Maximum Mean Discrepancy and Wasserstein distance) computed on the distributions of representations produced by different prompts. This representation-space repulsion diversifies exploration and prevents premature collapse to a single mode. Our approach allows for a more comprehensive characterization of the prompt posterior distribution, leading to improved generalization. In contrast to prior Bayesian prompt learning methods, our method provides a modular plug-and-play Bayesian extension of any existing prompt learning method based on maximum likelihood estimation. We demonstrate the efficacy of ReBaPL on several benchmark datasets, showing superior performance over state-of-the-art methods for prompt learning.