Adrick Tench

Adrick Tench, Thomas Demeester

Understanding causal relationships is critical for healthcare. Accurate causal models provide a means to enhance the interpretability of predictive models, and furthermore a basis for counterfactual and interventional reasoning and the estimation of treatment effects. However, would-be practitioners of causal discovery face a dizzying array of algorithms without a clear best choice. This abundance of competitive algorithms makes ensembling a natural choice for practical applications. At the same time, real-world use cases frequently face challenges that violate the assumptions of common causal discovery algorithms, forcing heavy reliance on expert knowledge. Inspired by recent work on dynamically requested expert knowledge and LLMs as experts, we present a flexible model averaging method leveraging dynamically requested expert knowledge to ensemble a diverse array of causal discovery algorithms. Experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our method with imperfect experts such as LLMs on both clean and noisy data. We also analyze the impact of different degrees of expert correctness and assess the capabilities of LLMs for clinical causal discovery, providing valuable insights for practitioners.

Paloma Rabaey, Adrick Tench, Stefan Heytens et al.

Electronic health records (EHRs) form an invaluable resource for training clinical decision support systems. To leverage the potential of such systems in high-risk applications, we need large, structured tabular datasets on which we can build transparent feature-based models. While part of the EHR already contains structured information (e.g. diagnosis codes, medications, and lab results), much of the information is contained within unstructured text (e.g. discharge summaries and nursing notes). In this work, we propose a method for multi-modal patient-level information extraction that leverages both the tabular features available in the patient's EHR (using an expert-informed Bayesian network) as well as clinical notes describing the patient's symptoms (using neural text classifiers). We propose the use of virtual evidence augmented with a consistency node to provide an interpretable, probabilistic fusion of the models' predictions. The consistency node improves the calibration of the final predictions compared to virtual evidence alone, allowing the Bayesian network to better adjust the neural classifier's output to handle missing information and resolve contradictions between the tabular and text data. We show the potential of our method on the SimSUM dataset, a simulated benchmark linking tabular EHRs with clinical notes through expert knowledge.