Daniel Racek

David Rügamer, Andreas Bender, Simon Wiegrebe et al.

Recommender Systems (RS) pervade many aspects of our everyday digital life. Proposed to work at scale, state-of-the-art RS allow the modeling of thousands of interactions and facilitate highly individualized recommendations. Conceptually, many RS can be viewed as instances of statistical regression models that incorporate complex feature effects and potentially non-Gaussian outcomes. Such structured regression models, including time-aware varying coefficients models, are, however, limited in their applicability to categorical effects and inclusion of a large number of interactions. Here, we propose Factorized Structured Regression (FaStR) for scalable varying coefficient models. FaStR overcomes limitations of general regression models for large-scale data by combining structured additive regression and factorization approaches in a neural network-based model implementation. This fusion provides a scalable framework for the estimation of statistical models in previously infeasible data settings. Empirical results confirm that the estimation of varying coefficients of our approach is on par with state-of-the-art regression techniques, while scaling notably better and also being competitive with other time-aware RS in terms of prediction performance. We illustrate FaStR's performance and interpretability on a large-scale behavioral study with smartphone user data.

Daniel Mittermaier, Tobias Bohne, Martin Hofer et al.

Predictions of fatalities from violent conflict on the PRIO-GRID-month (pgm) level are characterized by high levels of uncertainty, limiting their usefulness in practical applications. We discuss the two main sources of uncertainty for this prediction task, the nature of violent conflict and data limitations, embedding this in the wider literature on uncertainty quantification in machine learning. We develop a strategy to quantify uncertainty in conflict forecasting, shifting from traditional point predictions to full predictive distributions. Our approach compares and combines multiple tree-based classifiers and distributional regressors in a custom auto-ML setup, estimating distributions for each pgm individually. We also test the integration of regional models in spatial ensembles as a potential avenue to reduce uncertainty. The models are able to consistently outperform a suite of benchmarks derived from conflict history in predictions up to one year in advance, with performance driven by regions where conflict was observed. With our evaluation, we emphasize the need to understand how a metric behaves for a given prediction problem, in our case characterized by extremely high zero-inflatedness. While not resulting in better predictions, the integration of smaller models does not decrease performance for this prediction task, opening avenues to integrate data sources with less spatial coverage in the future.

Daniel Racek, Brittany I. Davidson, Paul W. Thurner et al.

The use of language is innately political and often a vehicle of cultural identity as well as the basis for nation building. Here, we examine language choice and tweeting activity of Ukrainian citizens based on more than 4 million geo-tagged tweets from over 62,000 users before and during the Russian-Ukrainian War, from January 2020 to October 2022. Using statistical models, we disentangle sample effects, arising from the in- and outflux of users on Twitter, from behavioural effects, arising from behavioural changes of the users. We observe a steady shift from the Russian language towards the Ukrainian language already before the war, which drastically speeds up with its outbreak. We attribute these shifts in large part to users' behavioural changes. Notably, we find that more than half of the Russian-tweeting users shift towards Ukrainian as a result of the war.