Shuang Ni

Zhiyuan Zeng, Jiashuo Liu, Siyuan Chen et al.

Future prediction is a complex task for LLM agents, requiring a high level of analytical thinking, information gathering, contextual understanding, and decision-making under uncertainty. Agents must not only gather and interpret vast amounts of dynamic information but also integrate diverse data sources, weigh uncertainties, and adapt predictions based on emerging trends, just as human experts do in fields like politics, economics, and finance. Despite its importance, no large-scale benchmark exists for evaluating agents on future prediction, largely due to challenges in handling real-time updates and retrieving timely, accurate answers. To address this, we introduce $\textbf{FutureX}$, a dynamic and live evaluation benchmark specifically designed for LLM agents performing future prediction tasks. FutureX is the largest and most diverse live benchmark for future prediction, supporting real-time daily updates and eliminating data contamination through an automated pipeline for question gathering and answer collection. We evaluate 25 LLM/agent models, including those with reasoning, search capabilities, and integration of external tools such as the open-source Deep Research Agent and closed-source Deep Research models. This comprehensive evaluation assesses agents' adaptive reasoning and performance in dynamic environments. Additionally, we provide in-depth analyses of agents' failure modes and performance pitfalls in future-oriented tasks, including the vulnerability to fake web pages and the temporal validity. Our goal is to establish a dynamic, contamination-free evaluation standard that drives the development of LLM agents capable of performing at the level of professional human analysts in complex reasoning and predictive thinking.

Francisco Téllez, AmirHossein Zamani, Philippe Martin et al.

Flow Matching is a powerful framework for learning transport maps between probability distributions. Yet its standard single-parameter formulation is not designed to capture multi-parameter variations where the resulting transport should be path-independent. Path independence is crucial because it ensures that transformations depend only on the initial and target distributions, not on the specific path. In this work, we introduce Path-independent Flow Matching (PiFM), a method for learning vector fields whose induced flows yield path-independent transport between distributions. We show that PiFM generalizes Flow Matching to higher-dimensional parameter domains while enforcing structural conditions that ensure consistency of composed transformations. In addition, we show that, under suitable assumptions, PiFM approximates the Wasserstein barycenter, linking the framework to a notion of distributional interpolation. To enable practical training, we propose a tractable, simulation-free objective that regresses onto multi-parameter conditional probability paths. We showcase empirically that PiFM outperforms other approaches on both synthetic and real world data in interpolating path-independent trajectories and generating desired out of distribution samples.

Adrien Aumon, Shuang Ni, Myriam Lizotte et al.

Extensive research has produced robust methods for unsupervised data visualization. Yet supervised visualization$\unicode{x2013}$where expert labels guide representations$\unicode{x2013}$remains underexplored, as most supervised approaches prioritize classification over visualization. Recently, RF-PHATE, a diffusion-based manifold learning method leveraging random forests and information geometry, marked significant progress in supervised visualization. However, its lack of an explicit mapping function limits scalability and its application to unseen data, posing challenges for large datasets and label-scarce scenarios. To overcome these limitations, we introduce Random Forest Autoencoders (RF-AE), a neural network-based framework for out-of-sample kernel extension that combines the flexibility of autoencoders with the supervised learning strengths of random forests and the geometry captured by RF-PHATE. RF-AE enables efficient out-of-sample supervised visualization and outperforms existing methods, including RF-PHATE's standard kernel extension, in both accuracy and interpretability. Additionally, RF-AE is robust to the choice of hyperparameters and generalizes to any kernel-based dimensionality reduction method.

Shuang Ni, Adrien Aumon, Guy Wolf et al.

The value of supervised dimensionality reduction lies in its ability to uncover meaningful connections between data features and labels. Common dimensionality reduction methods embed a set of fixed, latent points, but are not capable of generalizing to an unseen test set. In this paper, we provide an out-of-sample extension method for the random forest-based supervised dimensionality reduction method, RF-PHATE, combining information learned from the random forest model with the function-learning capabilities of autoencoders. Through quantitative assessment of various autoencoder architectures, we identify that networks that reconstruct random forest proximities are more robust for the embedding extension problem. Furthermore, by leveraging proximity-based prototypes, we achieve a 40% reduction in training time without compromising extension quality. Our method does not require label information for out-of-sample points, thus serving as a semi-supervised method, and can achieve consistent quality using only 10% of the training data.