Enrico Scoccimarro

Davide Donno, Donatello Elia, Gabriele Accarino et al.

Accurate tropical cyclones (TCs) tracking represents a critical challenge in the context of weather and climate science. Traditional tracking schemes mainly rely on subjective thresholds, which may introduce biases in their skills on the geographical region of application. We present ByteStorm, an efficient data-driven framework for reconstructing TC tracks without threshold tuning. It leverages deep learning networks to detect TC centers (via classification and localization), using only relative vorticity (850 mb) and mean sea-level pressure. Then, detected centers are linked into TC tracks through the BYTE algorithm. ByteStorm is evaluated against state-of-the-art deterministic trackers in the East- and West-North Pacific basins (ENP and WNP). The proposed framework achieves superior performance in terms of Probability of Detection ($85.05\%$ ENP, $79.48\%$ WNP), False Alarm Rate ($23.26\%$ ENP, $16.14\%$ WNP), and high Inter-Annual Variability correlations ($0.75$ ENP and $0.69$ WNP). These results highlight the potential of integrating deep learning and computer vision for fast and accurate TC tracking, offering a robust alternative to traditional approaches.

Italo Epicoco, Davide Donno, Gabriele Accarino et al.

Accurate ocean forecasting is essential for supporting a wide range of marine applications. Recent advances in artificial intelligence have highlighted the potential of data-driven models to outperform traditional numerical approaches, particularly in atmospheric weather forecasting. However, extending these methods to ocean systems remains challenging due to their inherently slower dynamics and complex boundary conditions. In this work, we present MedFormer, a fully data-driven deep learning model specifically designed for medium-range ocean forecasting in the Mediterranean Sea. MedFormer is based on a U-Net architecture augmented with 3D attention mechanisms and operates at a high horizontal resolution of 1/24°. The model is trained on 20 years of daily ocean reanalysis data and fine-tuned with high-resolution operational analyses. It generates 9-day forecasts using an autoregressive strategy. The model leverages both historical ocean states and atmospheric forcings, making it well-suited for operational use. We benchmark MedFormer against the state-of-the-art Mediterranean Forecasting System (MedFS), developed at Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), using both analysis data and independent observations. The forecast skills, evaluated with the Root Mean Squared Difference and the Anomaly Correlation Coefficient, indicate that MedFormer consistently outperforms MedFS across key 3D ocean variables. These findings underscore the potential of data-driven approaches like MedFormer to complement, or even surpass, traditional numerical ocean forecasting systems in both accuracy and computational efficiency.

J. Pérez-Aracil, C. Peláez-Rodríguez, Ronan McAdam et al.

Heatwaves (HWs) are extreme atmospheric events that produce significant societal and environmental impacts. Predicting these extreme events remains challenging, as their complex interactions with large-scale atmospheric and climatic variables are difficult to capture with traditional statistical and dynamical models. This work presents a general method for driver identification in extreme climate events. A novel framework (STCO-FS) is proposed to identify key immediate (short-term) HW drivers by combining clustering algorithms with an ensemble evolutionary algorithm. The framework analyzes spatio-temporal data, reduces dimensionality by grouping similar geographical nodes for each variable, and develops driver selection in spatial and temporal domains, identifying the best time lags between predictive variables and HW occurrences. The proposed method has been applied to analyze HWs in the Adda river basin in Italy. The approach effectively identifies significant variables influencing HWs in this region. This research can potentially enhance our understanding of HW drivers and predictability.