Harrison Zhu

Harrison Zhu, Carles Balsells Rodas, Yingzhen Li

Sequential VAEs have been successfully considered for many high-dimensional time series modelling problems, with many variant models relying on discrete-time mechanisms such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs). On the other hand, continuous-time methods have recently gained attraction, especially in the context of irregularly-sampled time series, where they can better handle the data than discrete-time methods. One such class are Gaussian process variational autoencoders (GPVAEs), where the VAE prior is set as a Gaussian process (GP). However, a major limitation of GPVAEs is that it inherits the cubic computational cost as GPs, making it unattractive to practioners. In this work, we leverage the equivalent discrete state space representation of Markovian GPs to enable linear time GPVAE training via Kalman filtering and smoothing. For our model, Markovian GPVAE (MGPVAE), we show on a variety of high-dimensional temporal and spatiotemporal tasks that our method performs favourably compared to existing approaches whilst being computationally highly scalable.

Alexander Pondaven, Märt Bakler, Donghu Guo et al.

The widespread availability of satellite images has allowed researchers to model complex systems such as disease dynamics. However, many satellite images have missing values due to measurement defects, which render them unusable without data imputation. For example, the scanline corrector for the LANDSAT 7 satellite broke down in 2003, resulting in a loss of around 20\% of its data. Inpainting involves predicting what is missing based on the known pixels and is an old problem in image processing, classically based on PDEs or interpolation methods, but recent deep learning approaches have shown promise. However, many of these methods do not explicitly take into account the inherent spatiotemporal structure of satellite images. In this work, we cast satellite image inpainting as a natural meta-learning problem, and propose using convolutional neural processes (ConvNPs) where we frame each satellite image as its own task or 2D regression problem. We show ConvNPs can outperform classical methods and state-of-the-art deep learning inpainting models on a scanline inpainting problem for LANDSAT 7 satellite images, assessed on a variety of in and out-of-distribution images.

Wentao Jiang, Vamsi Varra, Caitlin Perez-Stable et al.

Accurately quantifying vitiligo extent in routine clinical photographs is crucial for longitudinal monitoring of treatment response. We propose a trustworthy, frequency-aware segmentation framework built on three synergistic pillars: (1) a data-efficient training strategy combining domain-adaptive pre-training on the ISIC 2019 dataset with an ROI-constrained dual-task loss to suppress background noise; (2) an architectural refinement via a ConvNeXt V2-based encoder enhanced with a novel High-Frequency Spectral Gating (HFSG) module and stem-skip connections to capture subtle textures; and (3) a clinical trust mechanism employing K-fold ensemble and Test-Time Augmentation (TTA) to generate pixel-wise uncertainty maps. Extensive validation on an expert-annotated clinical cohort demonstrates superior performance, achieving a Dice score of 85.05% and significantly reducing boundary error (95% Hausdorff Distance improved from 44.79 px to 29.95 px), consistently outperforming strong CNN (ResNet-50 and UNet++) and Transformer (MiT-B5) baselines. Notably, our framework demonstrates high reliability with zero catastrophic failures and provides interpretable entropy maps to identify ambiguous regions for clinician review. Our approach suggests that the proposed framework establishes a robust and reliable standard for automated vitiligo assessment.

Xing Liu, Harrison Zhu, Jean-François Ton et al.

Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) is a deterministic particle inference algorithm that provides an efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo. However, SVGD has been found to suffer from variance underestimation when the dimensionality of the target distribution is high. Recent developments have advocated projecting both the score function and the data onto real lines to sidestep this issue, although this can severely overestimate the epistemic (model) uncertainty. In this work, we propose Grassmann Stein variational gradient descent (GSVGD) as an alternative approach, which permits projections onto arbitrary dimensional subspaces. Compared with other variants of SVGD that rely on dimensionality reduction, GSVGD updates the projectors simultaneously for the score function and the data, and the optimal projectors are determined through a coupled Grassmann-valued diffusion process which explores favourable subspaces. Both our theoretical and experimental results suggest that GSVGD enjoys efficient state-space exploration in high-dimensional problems that have an intrinsic low-dimensional structure.

Harrison Zhu, Xing Liu, Ruya Kang et al.

Bayesian quadrature (BQ) is a method for solving numerical integration problems in a Bayesian manner, which allows users to quantify their uncertainty about the solution. The standard approach to BQ is based on a Gaussian process (GP) approximation of the integrand. As a result, BQ is inherently limited to cases where GP approximations can be done in an efficient manner, thus often prohibiting very high-dimensional or non-smooth target functions. This paper proposes to tackle this issue with a new Bayesian numerical integration algorithm based on Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) priors, which we call BART-Int. BART priors are easy to tune and well-suited for discontinuous functions. We demonstrate that they also lend themselves naturally to a sequential design setting and that explicit convergence rates can be obtained in a variety of settings. The advantages and disadvantages of this new methodology are highlighted on a set of benchmark tests including the Genz functions, and on a Bayesian survey design problem.

Swapnil Mishra, Seth Flaxman, Tresnia Berah et al.

Stochastic processes provide a mathematically elegant way model complex data. In theory, they provide flexible priors over function classes that can encode a wide range of interesting assumptions. In practice, however, efficient inference by optimisation or marginalisation is difficult, a problem further exacerbated with big data and high dimensional input spaces. We propose a novel variational autoencoder (VAE) called the prior encoding variational autoencoder ($π$VAE). The $π$VAE is finitely exchangeable and Kolmogorov consistent, and thus is a continuous stochastic process. We use $π$VAE to learn low dimensional embeddings of function classes. We show that our framework can accurately learn expressive function classes such as Gaussian processes, but also properties of functions to enable statistical inference (such as the integral of a log Gaussian process). For popular tasks, such as spatial interpolation, $π$VAE achieves state-of-the-art performance both in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency. Perhaps most usefully, we demonstrate that the low dimensional independently distributed latent space representation learnt provides an elegant and scalable means of performing Bayesian inference for stochastic processes within probabilistic programming languages such as Stan.