Fulong Yao

Fulong Yao, Wanqing Zhao, Matthew Forshaw et al.

Data uncertainty is inherent in many real-world applications and poses significant challenges for accurate time series predictions. The interval type 2 fuzzy neural network (IT2FNN) has shown exceptional performance in uncertainty modelling for single-step prediction tasks. However, extending it for multi-step ahead predictions introduces further issues in uncertainty handling as well as model interpretability and accuracy. To address these issues, this paper proposes a new selforganizing interval type-2 fuzzy neural network with multiple outputs (SOIT2FNN-MO). Differing from the traditional six-layer IT2FNN, a nine-layer network architecture is developed. First, a new co-antecedent layer and a modified consequent layer are devised to improve the interpretability of the fuzzy model for multi-step time series prediction problems. Second, a new link layer is created to improve the accuracy by building temporal connections between multi-step predictions. Third, a new transformation layer is designed to address the problem of the vanishing rule strength caused by high-dimensional inputs. Furthermore, a two-stage, self-organizing learning mechanism is developed to automatically extract fuzzy rules from data and optimize network parameters. Experimental results on chaotic and microgrid prediction problems demonstrate that SOIT2FNN-MO outperforms state-of-the-art methods, by achieving a better accuracy ranging from 1.6% to 30% depending on the level of noises in data. Additionally, the proposed model is more interpretable, offering deeper insights into the prediction process.

Fulong Yao, Wanqing Zhao, Chao Zheng et al.

Recent advances in deep forecasting models have achieved remarkable performance, yet most approaches still struggle to provide both accurate predictions and interpretable insights into temporal dynamics. This paper proposes CaReTS, a novel multi-task learning framework that combines classification and regression tasks for multi-step time series forecasting problems. The framework adopts a dual-stream architecture, where a classification branch learns the stepwise trend into the future, while a regression branch estimates the corresponding deviations from the latest observation of the target variable. The dual-stream design provides more interpretable predictions by disentangling macro-level trends from micro-level deviations in the target variable. To enable effective learning in output prediction, deviation estimation, and trend classification, we design a multi-task loss with uncertainty-aware weighting to adaptively balance the contribution of each task. Furthermore, four variants (CaReTS1--4) are instantiated under this framework to incorporate mainstream temporal modelling encoders, including convolutional neural networks (CNNs), long short-term memory networks (LSTMs), and Transformers. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CaReTS outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) algorithms in forecasting accuracy, while achieving higher trend classification performance.

Fulong Yao, Wanqing Zhao, Matthew Forshaw

Predictive control approaches based on deep reinforcement learning (DRL) have gained significant attention in microgrid energy optimization. However, existing research often overlooks the issue of uncertainty stemming from imperfect prediction models, which can lead to suboptimal control strategies. This paper presents a new error temporal difference (ETD) algorithm for DRL to address the uncertainty in predictions,aiming to improve the performance of microgrid operations. First,a microgrid system integrated with renewable energy sources (RES) and energy storage systems (ESS), along with its Markov decision process (MDP), is modelled. Second, a predictive control approach based on a deep Q network (DQN) is presented, in which a weighted average algorithm and a new ETD algorithm are designed to quantify and address the prediction uncertainty, respectively. Finally, simulations on a realworld US dataset suggest that the developed ETD effectively improves the performance of DRL in optimizing microgrid operations.

Fulong Yao, Wenju Zhou, Huosheng Hu

Visually impaired individuals rely heavily on accurate and timely information about obstacles and their surrounding environments to achieve independent living. In recent years, significant progress has been made in the development of assistive technologies, particularly vision-based systems, that enhance mobility and facilitate interaction with the external world in both indoor and outdoor settings. This paper presents a comprehensive review of recent advances in assistive systems designed for the visually impaired, with a focus on state-of-the-art technologies in obstacle detection, navigation, and user interaction. In addition, emerging trends and future directions in visual guidance systems are discussed.