Wanqing Zhao

Fulong Yao, Wanqing Zhao, Matthew Forshaw et al.

Data uncertainty is inherent in many real-world applications and poses significant challenges for accurate time series predictions. The interval type 2 fuzzy neural network (IT2FNN) has shown exceptional performance in uncertainty modelling for single-step prediction tasks. However, extending it for multi-step ahead predictions introduces further issues in uncertainty handling as well as model interpretability and accuracy. To address these issues, this paper proposes a new selforganizing interval type-2 fuzzy neural network with multiple outputs (SOIT2FNN-MO). Differing from the traditional six-layer IT2FNN, a nine-layer network architecture is developed. First, a new co-antecedent layer and a modified consequent layer are devised to improve the interpretability of the fuzzy model for multi-step time series prediction problems. Second, a new link layer is created to improve the accuracy by building temporal connections between multi-step predictions. Third, a new transformation layer is designed to address the problem of the vanishing rule strength caused by high-dimensional inputs. Furthermore, a two-stage, self-organizing learning mechanism is developed to automatically extract fuzzy rules from data and optimize network parameters. Experimental results on chaotic and microgrid prediction problems demonstrate that SOIT2FNN-MO outperforms state-of-the-art methods, by achieving a better accuracy ranging from 1.6% to 30% depending on the level of noises in data. Additionally, the proposed model is more interpretable, offering deeper insights into the prediction process.

Fulong Yao, Wanqing Zhao, Chao Zheng et al.

Recent advances in deep forecasting models have achieved remarkable performance, yet most approaches still struggle to provide both accurate predictions and interpretable insights into temporal dynamics. This paper proposes CaReTS, a novel multi-task learning framework that combines classification and regression tasks for multi-step time series forecasting problems. The framework adopts a dual-stream architecture, where a classification branch learns the stepwise trend into the future, while a regression branch estimates the corresponding deviations from the latest observation of the target variable. The dual-stream design provides more interpretable predictions by disentangling macro-level trends from micro-level deviations in the target variable. To enable effective learning in output prediction, deviation estimation, and trend classification, we design a multi-task loss with uncertainty-aware weighting to adaptively balance the contribution of each task. Furthermore, four variants (CaReTS1--4) are instantiated under this framework to incorporate mainstream temporal modelling encoders, including convolutional neural networks (CNNs), long short-term memory networks (LSTMs), and Transformers. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CaReTS outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) algorithms in forecasting accuracy, while achieving higher trend classification performance.

Fulong Yao, Wanqing Zhao, Matthew Forshaw

Predictive control approaches based on deep reinforcement learning (DRL) have gained significant attention in microgrid energy optimization. However, existing research often overlooks the issue of uncertainty stemming from imperfect prediction models, which can lead to suboptimal control strategies. This paper presents a new error temporal difference (ETD) algorithm for DRL to address the uncertainty in predictions,aiming to improve the performance of microgrid operations. First,a microgrid system integrated with renewable energy sources (RES) and energy storage systems (ESS), along with its Markov decision process (MDP), is modelled. Second, a predictive control approach based on a deep Q network (DQN) is presented, in which a weighted average algorithm and a new ETD algorithm are designed to quantify and address the prediction uncertainty, respectively. Finally, simulations on a realworld US dataset suggest that the developed ETD effectively improves the performance of DRL in optimizing microgrid operations.

Shijun Yang, Xiang Zhang, Wanqing Zhao et al.

Prompt learning facilitates the efficient adaptation of Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to various downstream tasks. However, it faces two significant challenges: (1) inadequate modeling of class embedding distributions for unseen instances, leading to suboptimal generalization on novel classes; (2) prevailing methodologies predominantly confine cross-modal alignment to the final output layer of vision and text encoders, which fundamentally limits their capacity to preserve topological consistency with pre-trained multi-modal embedding spaces. To this end, we introduce MuGCP (Multi-modal Mutual-Guidance Conditional Prompt Learning), a novel paradigm designed for conditional prompt generation. MuGCP leverages Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) as conditional prompt learners to adaptively generate Semantic Conditional Prompts (SCP) that incorporate rich, fine-grained high-level semantic knowledge for image instances. To ensure effective alignment and interaction across the multi-modal space of Vision-Language Models (VLMs), we introduce the Attention Mutual-Guidance (AMG) module, which facilitates interactions between visual and semantic information. Through mutual guidance, the AMG module generates Visual Conditional Prompts (VCP), enhancing the model's performance in multi-modal tasks. Additionally, we present a Multi-Prompt Fusion (MPF) mechanism that integrates SCP and VCP with contextual prompts, ensuring seamless coordination among the different prompts and enhancing the modeling of class embeddings and instance-specific knowledge. Our MuGCP outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods on 14 different datasets. The code will be made available after publication.

Wanqing Zhao, Yuta Nakashima, Haiyuan Chen et al.

Fake news detection in social media has become increasingly important due to the rapid proliferation of personal media channels and the consequential dissemination of misleading information. Existing methods, which primarily rely on multimodal features and graph-based techniques, have shown promising performance in detecting fake news. However, they still face a limitation, i.e., sparsity in graph connections, which hinders capturing possible interactions among tweets. This challenge has motivated us to explore a novel method that densifies the graph's connectivity to capture denser interaction better. Our method constructs a cross-modal tweet graph using CLIP, which encodes images and text into a unified space, allowing us to extract potential connections based on similarities in text and images. We then design a Feature Contextualization Network with Label Propagation (FCN-LP) to model the interaction among tweets as well as positive or negative correlations between predicted labels of connected tweets. The propagated labels from the graph are weighted and aggregated for the final detection. To enhance the model's generalization ability to unseen events, we introduce a domain generalization loss that ensures consistent features between tweets on seen and unseen events. We use three publicly available fake news datasets, Twitter, PHEME, and Weibo, for evaluation. Our method consistently improves the performance over the state-of-the-art methods on all benchmark datasets and effectively demonstrates its aptitude for generalizing fake news detection in social media.