AO-PHAug 15, 2025
Approximating the universal thermal climate index using sparse regression with orthogonal polynomialsSabin Roman, Gregor Skok, Ljupco Todorovski et al.
This article explores novel data-driven modeling approaches for analyzing and approximating the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), a physiologically-based metric integrating multiple atmospheric variables to assess thermal comfort. Given the nonlinear, multivariate structure of UTCI, we investigate symbolic and sparse regression techniques as tools for interpretable and efficient function approximation. In particular, we highlight the benefits of using orthogonal polynomial bases-such as Legendre polynomials-in sparse regression frameworks, demonstrating their advantages in stability, convergence, and hierarchical interpretability compared to standard polynomial expansions. We demonstrate that our models achieve significantly lower root-mean squared losses than the widely used sixth-degree polynomial benchmark-while using the same or fewer parameters. By leveraging Legendre polynomial bases, we construct models that efficiently populate a Pareto front of accuracy versus complexity and exhibit stable, hierarchical coefficient structures across varying model capacities. Training on just 20% of the data, our models generalize robustly to the remaining 80%, with consistent performance under bootstrapping. The decomposition effectively approximates the UTCI as a Fourier-like expansion in an orthogonal basis, yielding results near the theoretical optimum in the L2 (least squares) sense. We also connect these findings to the broader context of equation discovery in environmental modeling, referencing probabilistic grammar-based methods that enforce domain consistency and compactness in symbolic expressions. Taken together, these results illustrate how combining sparsity, orthogonality, and symbolic structure enables robust, interpretable modeling of complex environmental indices like UTCI - and significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art approximation in both accuracy and efficiency.
SISep 25, 2021
Predicting Hidden Links and Missing Nodes in Scale-Free Networks with Artificial Neural NetworksRakib Hassan Pran, Ljupco Todorovski
There are many networks in real life which exist as form of Scale-free networks such as World Wide Web, protein-protein inter action network, semantic networks, airline networks, interbank payment networks, etc. If we want to analyze these networks, it is really necessary to understand the properties of scale-free networks. By using the properties of scale free networks, we can identify any type of anomalies in those networks. In this research, we proposed a methodology in a form of an algorithm to predict hidden links and missing nodes in scale-free networks where we combined a generator of random networks as a source of train data, on one hand, with artificial neural networks for supervised classification, on the other, we aimed at training the neural networks to discriminate between different subtypes of scale-free networks and predicted the missing nodes and hidden links among (present and missing) nodes in a given scale-free network. We chose Bela Bollobas's directed scale-free random graph generation algorithm as a generator of random networks to generate a large set of scale-free network's data.
DSFeb 11, 2019
Reconstructing dynamical networks via feature rankingMarc G. Leguia, Zoran Levnajic, Ljupco Todorovski et al.
Empirical data on real complex systems are becoming increasingly available. Parallel to this is the need for new methods of reconstructing (inferring) the topology of networks from time-resolved observations of their node-dynamics. The methods based on physical insights often rely on strong assumptions about the properties and dynamics of the scrutinized network. Here, we use the insights from machine learning to design a new method of network reconstruction that essentially makes no such assumptions. Specifically, we interpret the available trajectories (data) as features, and use two independent feature ranking approaches -- Random forest and RReliefF -- to rank the importance of each node for predicting the value of each other node, which yields the reconstructed adjacency matrix. We show that our method is fairly robust to coupling strength, system size, trajectory length and noise. We also find that the reconstruction quality strongly depends on the dynamical regime.