Hien Tran

Nghia Chu, Binh Dao, Nga Pham et al.

Predicting fund performance is beneficial to both investors and fund managers, and yet is a challenging task. In this paper, we have tested whether deep learning models can predict fund performance more accurately than traditional statistical techniques. Fund performance is typically evaluated by the Sharpe ratio, which represents the risk-adjusted performance to ensure meaningful comparability across funds. We calculated the annualised Sharpe ratios based on the monthly returns time series data for more than 600 open-end mutual funds investing in listed large-cap equities in the United States. We find that long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent units (GRUs) deep learning methods, both trained with modern Bayesian optimization, provide higher accuracy in forecasting funds' Sharpe ratios than traditional statistical ones. An ensemble method, which combines forecasts from LSTM and GRUs, achieves the best performance of all models. There is evidence to say that deep learning and ensembling offer promising solutions in addressing the challenge of fund performance forecasting.

Hien Tran, Quinten Steenhuis, Alexandros Christoforos et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are often evaluated against ideals of perfect Bayesian inference, yet growing evidence suggests that their in-context reasoning exhibits systematic forgetting of past information. Rather than viewing this behavior as a limitation, we reinterpret forgetting as a functional cognitive mechanism. Drawing inspiration from human memory dynamics, we model LLM inference as a probabilistic memory process governed by exponential decay. We introduce a benchmark suite that evaluates temporal reasoning, concept drift adaptation, and associative recall, enabling direct comparison between model behavior and human cognitive patterns. Our empirical results reveal that LLMs demonstrate forgetting rates analogous to human memory efficiency trade-offs between stability and adaptability. Building on these observations, we propose probabilistic memory prompting, a lightweight strategy that shapes evidence integration to mimic human-like memory decay, leading to improved long-horizon reasoning performance. Our findings position forgetting not as a failure mode, but as a principled mechanism for adaptive intelligence.

Tien-Dung Cao, Tram Truong-Huu, Hien Tran et al.

Deep learning has achieved great success in many applications. However, its deployment in practice has been hurdled by two issues: the privacy of data that has to be aggregated centrally for model training and high communication overhead due to transmission of a large amount of data usually geographically distributed. Addressing both issues is challenging and most existing works could not provide an efficient solution. In this paper, we develop FedPC, a Federated Deep Learning Framework for Privacy Preservation and Communication Efficiency. The framework allows a model to be learned on multiple private datasets while not revealing any information of training data, even with intermediate data. The framework also minimizes the amount of data exchanged to update the model. We formally prove the convergence of the learning model when training with FedPC and its privacy-preserving property. We perform extensive experiments to evaluate the performance of FedPC in terms of the approximation to the upper-bound performance (when training centrally) and communication overhead. The results show that FedPC maintains the performance approximation of the models within $8.5\%$ of the centrally-trained models when data is distributed to 10 computing nodes. FedPC also reduces the communication overhead by up to $42.20\%$ compared to existing works.