Noah Kasmanoff

Grace Colverd, Paul Darm, Leonard Silverberg et al.

Fast disaster impact reporting is crucial in planning humanitarian assistance. Large Language Models (LLMs) are well known for their ability to write coherent text and fulfill a variety of tasks relevant to impact reporting, such as question answering or text summarization. However, LLMs are constrained by the knowledge within their training data and are prone to generating inaccurate, or "hallucinated", information. To address this, we introduce a sophisticated pipeline embodied in our tool FloodBrain (floodbrain.com), specialized in generating flood disaster impact reports by extracting and curating information from the web. Our pipeline assimilates information from web search results to produce detailed and accurate reports on flood events. We test different LLMs as backbones in our tool and compare their generated reports to human-written reports on different metrics. Similar to other studies, we find a notable correlation between the scores assigned by GPT-4 and the scores given by human evaluators when comparing our generated reports to human-authored ones. Additionally, we conduct an ablation study to test our single pipeline components and their relevancy for the final reports. With our tool, we aim to advance the use of LLMs for disaster impact reporting and reduce the time for coordination of humanitarian efforts in the wake of flood disasters.

Swapneel Mehta, Noah Kasmanoff

We demonstrate an approach to replicate and forecast the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic using the toolkit of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs). Our goal is to study the impact of various modeling assumptions and motivate policy interventions enacted to limit the spread of infectious diseases. Using existing compartmental models we show how to use inference in PPLs to obtain posterior estimates for disease parameters. We improve popular existing models to reflect practical considerations such as the under-reporting of the true number of COVID-19 cases and motivate the need to model policy interventions for real-world data. We design an SEI3RD model as a reusable template and demonstrate its flexibility in comparison to other models. We also provide a greedy algorithm that selects the optimal series of policy interventions that are likely to control the infected population subject to provided constraints. We work within a simple, modular, and reproducible framework to enable immediate cross-domain access to the state-of-the-art in probabilistic inference with emphasis on policy interventions. We are not epidemiologists; the sole aim of this study is to serve as an exposition of methods, not to directly infer the real-world impact of policy-making for COVID-19.

Noah Kasmanoff, Rahul Zalkikar

Imitation learning is a proven method for creating a policy in the absence of rewards, by leveraging expert demonstrations. In this work, we apply imitation learning to conversation. In doing so, we recover a policy capable of talking to a user given a prompt (input state), and a discriminator capable of classifying between expert and synthetic conversation. While our policy is effective, we recover results from our discriminator that indicate the limitations of dialog models. We argue that this technique can be used to identify adverse behavior of arbitrary data models common for dialog oriented tasks.