Jim Weatherall

Evgeny S. Saveliev, Samuel Holt, Nabeel Seedat et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) offer a promising avenue for scientific discovery, yet their application to symbolic regression is often constrained by inefficient search strategies and coarse feedback signals. Current methods typically guide LLMs using scalar metrics (e.g., global Mean Squared Error), which fail to identify which components of a proposed equation are driving performance or causing error. We introduce \textit{Influence-Guided Symbolic Regression} (IGSR), a method that frames equation discovery as an iterative two-step process combining diverse term generation with rigorous selection: an LLM generates candidate basis functions $ψ_j(\mathbf{x})$ for a linear model, which are then evaluated using granular influence scores $Δ_j$. These scores quantify each term's marginal contribution to generalization accuracy, enabling an influence-guided pruning process that systematically refines the model structure. Integrating this mechanism into a Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) enables navigating the combinatorial search space while balancing exploration of novel functional forms with exploitation of high-influence components. We demonstrate IGSR's effectiveness on a diverse suite of benchmarks, including LLM-SRBench, pharmacological PKPD models, an epidemiological simulation, and real-world genomic data. Notably, we validate the framework's capacity for genuine discovery in a case study using a high-dimensional biological dataset, in which IGSR identified a novel relationship between DNA methylation and RNA Polymerase II pausing; a hypothesis that was subsequently supported via wet-lab experimentation.

Usman Anwar, Julianna Piskorz, David D. Baek et al.

Large language models are beginning to show steganographic capabilities. Such capabilities could allow misaligned models to evade oversight mechanisms. Yet principled methods to detect and quantify such behaviours are lacking. Classical definitions of steganography, and detection methods based on them, require a known reference distribution of non-steganographic signals. For the case of steganographic reasoning in LLMs, knowing such a reference distribution is not feasible; this renders these approaches inapplicable. We propose an alternative, \textbf{decision-theoretic view of steganography}. Our central insight is that steganography creates an asymmetry in usable information between agents who can and cannot decode the hidden content (present within a steganographic signal), and this otherwise latent asymmetry can be inferred from the agents' observable actions. To formalise this perspective, we introduce generalised $\mathcal{V}$-information: a utilitarian framework for measuring the amount of usable information within some input. We use this to define the \textbf{steganographic gap} -- a measure that quantifies steganography by comparing the downstream utility of the steganographic signal to agents that can and cannot decode the hidden content. We empirically validate our formalism, and show that it can be used to detect, quantify, and mitigate steganographic reasoning in LLMs.

Jeroen Berrevoets, Julianna Piskorz, Robert Davis et al.

Estimating treatment effects (TE) from observational data is a critical yet complex task in many fields, from healthcare and economics to public policy. While recent advances in machine learning and causal inference have produced powerful estimation techniques, their adoption remains limited due to the need for deep expertise in causal assumptions, adjustment strategies, and model selection. In this paper, we introduce CATE-B, an open-source co-pilot system that uses large language models (LLMs) within an agentic framework to guide users through the end-to-end process of treatment effect estimation. CATE-B assists in (i) constructing a structural causal model via causal discovery and LLM-based edge orientation, (ii) identifying robust adjustment sets through a novel Minimal Uncertainty Adjustment Set criterion, and (iii) selecting appropriate regression methods tailored to the causal structure and dataset characteristics. To encourage reproducibility and evaluation, we release a suite of benchmark tasks spanning diverse domains and causal complexities. By combining causal inference with intelligent, interactive assistance, CATE-B lowers the barrier to rigorous causal analysis and lays the foundation for a new class of benchmarks in automated treatment effect estimation.

Mihaela van der Schaar, Richard Peck, Eoin McKinney et al.

This manifesto represents a collaborative vision forged by leaders in pharmaceuticals, consulting firms, clinical research, and AI. It outlines a roadmap for two AI technologies - causal inference and digital twins - to transform clinical trials, delivering faster, safer, and more personalized outcomes for patients. By focusing on actionable integration within existing regulatory frameworks, we propose a way forward to revolutionize clinical research and redefine the gold standard for clinical trials using AI.

Christopher Yacoumatos, Stefano Bragaglia, Anshul Kanakia et al.

A major impediment to successful drug development is the complexity, cost, and scale of clinical trials. The detailed internal structure of clinical trial data can make conventional optimization difficult to achieve. Recent advances in machine learning, specifically graph-structured data analysis, have the potential to enable significant progress in improving the clinical trial design. TrialGraph seeks to apply these methodologies to produce a proof-of-concept framework for developing models which can aid drug development and benefit patients. In this work, we first introduce a curated clinical trial data set compiled from the CT.gov, AACT and TrialTrove databases (n=1191 trials; representing one million patients) and describe the conversion of this data to graph-structured formats. We then detail the mathematical basis and implementation of a selection of graph machine learning algorithms, which typically use standard machine classifiers on graph data embedded in a low-dimensional feature space. We trained these models to predict side effect information for a clinical trial given information on the disease, existing medical conditions, and treatment. The MetaPath2Vec algorithm performed exceptionally well, with standard Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Support Vector, and Neural Network classifiers exhibiting typical ROC-AUC scores of 0.85, 0.68, 0.86, 0.80, and 0.77, respectively. Remarkably, the best performing classifiers could only produce typical ROC-AUC scores of 0.70 when trained on equivalent array-structured data. Our work demonstrates that graph modelling can significantly improve prediction accuracy on appropriate datasets. Successive versions of the project that refine modelling assumptions and incorporate more data types can produce excellent predictors with real-world applications in drug development.