Huibo Xu

Huibo Xu, Runlong Yu, Likang Wu et al.

Existing generative models for time series forecasting often transform simple priors (typically Gaussian) into complex data distributions. However, their sampling initialization, independent of historical data, hinders the capture of temporal dependencies, limiting predictive accuracy. They also treat residuals merely as optimization targets, ignoring that residuals often exhibit meaningful patterns like systematic biases or nontrivial distributional structures. To address these, we propose Conditional Guided Flow Matching (CGFM), a novel model-agnostic framework that extends flow matching by integrating outputs from an auxiliary predictive model. This enables learning from the probabilistic structure of prediction residuals, leveraging the auxiliary model's prediction distribution as a source to reduce learning difficulty and refine forecasts. CGFM incorporates historical data as both conditions and guidance, uses two-sided conditional paths (with source and target conditioned on the same history), and employs affine paths to expand the path space, avoiding path crossing without complex mechanisms, preserving temporal consistency, and strengthening distribution alignment. Experiments across datasets and baselines show CGFM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art models, advancing forecasting.

Ze Liu, Xianquan Wang, Shuochen Liu et al.

Implicit feedback is central to modern recommender systems but is inherently noisy, often impairing model training and degrading user experience. At scale, such noise can mislead learning processes, reducing both recommendation accuracy and platform value. Existing denoising strategies typically overlook the entity-specific nature of noise while introducing high computational costs and complex hyperparameter tuning. To address these challenges, we propose \textbf{EARD} (\textbf{E}ntity-\textbf{A}ware \textbf{R}eliability-\textbf{D}riven Denoising), a lightweight framework that shifts the focus from interaction-level signals to entity-level reliability. Motivated by the empirical observation that training loss correlates with noise, EARD quantifies user and item reliability via their average training losses as a proxy for reputation, and integrates these entity-level factors with interaction-level confidence. The framework is \textbf{model-agnostic}, \textbf{computationally efficient}, and requires \textbf{only two intuitive hyperparameters}. Extensive experiments across multiple datasets and backbone models demonstrate that EARD yields substantial improvements over state-of-the-art baselines (e.g., up to 27.01\% gain in NDCG@50), while incurring negligible additional computational cost. Comprehensive ablation studies and mechanism analyses further confirm EARD's robustness to hyperparameter choices and its practical scalability. These results highlight the importance of entity-aware reliability modeling for denoising implicit feedback and pave the way for more robust recommendation research.

Huibo Xu, Likang Wu, Xianquan Wang et al.

Time series forecasting is a fundamental task with broad applications, yet conventional methods often treat data as discrete sequences, overlooking their origin as noisy samples of continuous processes. Crucially, discrete noisy observations cannot uniquely determine a continuous function; instead, they correspond to a family of plausible functions. Mathematically, time series can be viewed as noisy observations of a continuous function family governed by a shared probability measure. Thus, the forecasting task can be framed as learning the transition from the historical function family to the future function family. This reframing introduces two key challenges: (1) How can we leverage discrete historical and future observations to learn the relationships between their underlying continuous functions? (2) How can we model the transition path in function space from the historical function family to the future function family? To address these challenges, we propose NeuTSFlow, a novel framework that leverages Neural Operators to facilitate flow matching for learning path of measure between historical and future function families. By parameterizing the velocity field of the flow in infinite-dimensional function spaces, NeuTSFlow moves beyond traditional methods that focus on dependencies at discrete points, directly modeling function-level features instead. Experiments on diverse forecasting tasks demonstrate NeuTSFlow's superior accuracy and robustness, validating the effectiveness of the function-family perspective.