Ruanui Nicholson

Steven Maio, Alen Alexanderian, Karina Koval et al.

We address optimal placement of multi-type sensors for Bayesian inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The proposed framework allows for sensors with different accuracies and observation types. We formulate the optimal experimental design (OED) problem as a knapsack-constrained binary optimization problem for maximizing expected information gain (EIG). To approximately solve the resulting optimization problems, we propose a stochastic cost-benefit greedy algorithm, which admits theoretical guarantees for monotone submodular set functions. Specifically, these guarantees apply in the case of linear Gaussian inverse problems with uncorrelated measurement errors, where the EIG admits a convenient closed-form expression. For nonlinear inverse problems, we develop a non-intrusive approach that uses the Bayesian approximation error framework to define an observation model with an error-corrected global linear model. We show that the corresponding approximate EIG is a lower bound for the exact EIG and thus provides a principled surrogate objective for the OED problem. The effectiveness of the proposed methods is demonstrated in two model inverse problems governed by PDEs.

Ruanui Nicholson, Matti Niskanen, Oliver J. Maclaren et al.

We consider joint inversion for two or more unknown parameters from observational data in the Bayesian framework. Standard approaches often either treat the parameters as independent or impose structural similarity through regularisation terms that can be difficult to interpret statistically. We instead construct jointly Gaussian prior models with prescribed Gaussian marginals, so that correlation between the parameters can be incorporated without altering the marginal prior distributions. We propose a joint covariance construction that preserves the marginals, allows spatially varying cross-correlation, and supports uncertainty and inference in the correlation itself. The construction is valid for any strict contraction encoding the desired cross-correlation and is optimal in a canonical correlation sense under the principal square root factorisation. We demonstrate the method using prior sampling and several inference examples: a low-dimensional illustrative example and two higher-dimensional examples, including a PDE-constrained problem. The examples highlight both the potential pitfalls of ignoring or neglecting uncertainty in the correlation as well as reinforcing a key principle of the Bayesian paradigm: unknown quantities included in a model should be treated as random variables.

Xindi Gong, Dingcheng Luo, Thomas O'Leary-Roseberry et al.

Shape optimization under uncertainty (OUU) is computationally intensive for classical PDE-based methods due to the high cost of repeated sampling-based risk evaluation across many uncertainty realizations and varying geometries, while standard neural surrogates often fail to provide accurate and efficient sensitivities for optimization. We introduce Shape-DINO, a derivative-informed neural operator framework for learning PDE solution operators on families of varying geometries, with a particular focus on accelerating PDE-constrained shape OUU. Shape-DINOs encode geometric variability through diffeomorphic mappings to a fixed reference domain and employ a derivative-informed operator learning objective that jointly learns the PDE solution and its Fréchet derivatives with respect to design variables and uncertain parameters, enabling accurate state predictions and reliable gradients for large-scale OUU. We establish a priori error bounds linking surrogate accuracy to optimization error and prove universal approximation results for multi-input reduced basis neural operators in suitable $C^1$ norms. We demonstrate efficiency and scalability on three representative shape OUU problems, including boundary design for a Poisson equation and shape design governed by steady-state Navier-Stokes exterior flows in two and three dimensions. Across these examples, Shape-DINOs produce more reliable optimization results than operator surrogates trained without derivative information. In our examples, Shape-DINOs achieve 3-8 orders-of-magnitude speedups in state and gradient evaluations. Counting training data generation, Shape-DINOs reduce necessary PDE solves by 1-2 orders-of-magnitude compared to a strictly PDE-based approach for a single OUU problem. Moreover, Shape-DINO construction costs can be amortized across many objectives and risk measures, enabling large-scale shape OUU for complex systems.

Oliver J. Maclaren, Ruanui Nicholson

We consider basic conceptual questions concerning the relationship between statistical estimation and causal inference. Firstly, we show how to translate causal inference problems into an abstract statistical formalism without requiring any structure beyond an arbitrarily-indexed family of probability models. The formalism is simple but can incorporate a variety of causal modelling frameworks, including 'structural causal models', but also models expressed in terms of, e.g., differential equations. We focus primarily on the structural/graphical causal modelling literature, however. Secondly, we consider the extent to which causal and statistical concerns can be cleanly separated, examining the fundamental question: 'What can be estimated from data?'. We call this the problem of estimability. We approach this by analysing a standard formal definition of 'can be estimated' commonly adopted in the causal inference literature -- identifiability -- in our abstract statistical formalism. We use elementary category theory to show that identifiability implies the existence of a Fisher-consistent estimator, but also show that this estimator may be discontinuous, and thus unstable, in general. This difficulty arises because the causal inference problem is, in general, an ill-posed inverse problem. Inverse problems have three conditions which must be satisfied to be considered well-posed: existence, uniqueness, and stability of solutions. Here identifiability corresponds to the question of uniqueness; in contrast, we take estimability to mean satisfaction of all three conditions, i.e. well-posedness. Lack of stability implies that naive translation of a causally identifiable quantity into an achievable statistical estimation target may prove impossible. Our article is primarily expository and aimed at unifying ideas from multiple fields, though we provide new constructions and proofs.

Ruanui Nicholson, Jari P. Kaipio

Multiplicative noise models are often used instead of additive noise models in cases in which the noise variance depends on the state. Furthermore, when Poisson distributions with relatively small counts are approximated with normal distributions, multiplicative noise approximations are straightforward to implement. There are a number of limitations in existing approaches to marginalize over multiplicative errors, such as positivity of the multiplicative noise term. The focus in this paper is in large dimensional (inverse) problems for which sampling type approaches have too high computational complexity. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach to carry out approximative marginalization over the multiplicative error by embedding the statistics in an additive error term. The approach is essentially a Bayesian one in that the statistics of the additive error is induced by the statistics of the other unknowns. As an example, we consider a deconvolution problem on random fields with different statistics of the multiplicative noise. Furthermore, the approach allows for correlated multiplicative noise. We show that the proposed approach provides feasible error estimates in the sense that the posterior models support the actual image.