Jan Helsen

Max Bruninx, Seyed Soroush Karimi Madahi, Timothy Verstraeten et al.

In a decentralized balancing model, Balance Responsible Parties (BRPs) are encouraged by the Transmission System Operator (TSO) to deviate from their schedule to help the system restore balance, also referred to as implicit balancing. This could reduce balancing costs for the grid operator and lower the entry barrier for flexible assets compared to explicit balancing services. However, these implicit reactions may overshoot when their total capacity is high, potentially requiring more explicit activations. This study analyses the effect of increased participation in the decentralized balancing model in Belgium. To this end, we develop a market simulator that produces price signals on minute-level and simulate the implicit reactions for battery assets with different risk profiles. Besides the current price formula, we also study two potential candidates for the near-term presented by the TSO. A simulation study is conducted using Belgian market data for the year 2023. The findings indicate that, while having a significant positive effect on the balancing costs at first, the risk of overshoots can outweigh the potential benefits when the total capacity of the implicit reactions becomes too large. Furthermore, even when the balancing costs start to increase for the TSO, BRPs were still found to benefit from implicit balancing.

Max Bruninx, Diederik van Binsbergen, Timothy Verstraeten et al.

Accurate production forecasts are essential to continue facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources into the power grid. This paper illustrates how to obtain probabilistic day-ahead forecasts of wind power generation via gradient boosting trees using an ensemble of weather forecasts. To this end, we perform a comparative analysis across three state-of-the-art probabilistic prediction methods-conformalised quantile regression, natural gradient boosting and conditional diffusion models-all of which can be combined with tree-based machine learning. The methods are validated using four years of data for all wind farms present within the Belgian offshore zone. Additionally, the point forecasts are benchmarked against deterministic engineering methods, using either the power curve or an advanced approach incorporating a calibrated analytical wake model. The experimental results show that the machine learning methods improve the mean absolute error by up to 53% and 33% compared to the power curve and the calibrated wake model. Considering the three probabilistic prediction methods, the conditional diffusion model is found to yield the best overall probabilistic and point estimate of wind power generation. Moreover, the findings suggest that the use of an ensemble of weather forecasts can improve point forecast accuracy by up to 23%.

Timothy Verstraeten, Pieter-Jan Daems, Eugenio Bargiacchi et al.

Wind farms are a crucial driver toward the generation of ecological and renewable energy. Due to their rapid increase in capacity, contemporary wind farms need to adhere to strict constraints on power output to ensure stability of the electricity grid. Specifically, a wind farm controller is required to match the farm's power production with a power demand imposed by the grid operator. This is a non-trivial optimization problem, as complex dependencies exist between the wind turbines. State-of-the-art wind farm control typically relies on physics-based heuristics that fail to capture the full load spectrum that defines a turbine's health status. When this is not taken into account, the long-term viability of the farm's turbines is put at risk. Given the complex dependencies that determine a turbine's lifetime, learning a flexible and optimal control strategy requires a data-driven approach. However, as wind farms are large-scale multi-agent systems, optimizing control strategies over the full joint action space is intractable. We propose a new learning method for wind farm control that leverages the sparse wind farm structure to factorize the optimization problem. Using a Bayesian approach, based on multi-agent Thompson sampling, we explore the factored joint action space for configurations that match the demand, while considering the lifetime of turbines. We apply our method to a grid-like wind farm layout, and evaluate configurations using a state-of-the-art wind flow simulator. Our results are competitive with a physics-based heuristic approach in terms of demand error, while, contrary to the heuristic, our method prolongs the lifetime of high-risk turbines.

Timothy Verstraeten, Eugenio Bargiacchi, Pieter JK Libin et al.

Multi-agent coordination is prevalent in many real-world applications. However, such coordination is challenging due to its combinatorial nature. An important observation in this regard is that agents in the real world often only directly affect a limited set of neighbouring agents. Leveraging such loose couplings among agents is key to making coordination in multi-agent systems feasible. In this work, we focus on learning to coordinate. Specifically, we consider the multi-agent multi-armed bandit framework, in which fully cooperative loosely-coupled agents must learn to coordinate their decisions to optimize a common objective. We propose multi-agent Thompson sampling (MATS), a new Bayesian exploration-exploitation algorithm that leverages loose couplings. We provide a regret bound that is sublinear in time and low-order polynomial in the highest number of actions of a single agent for sparse coordination graphs. Additionally, we empirically show that MATS outperforms the state-of-the-art algorithm, MAUCE, on two synthetic benchmarks, and a novel benchmark with Poisson distributions. An example of a loosely-coupled multi-agent system is a wind farm. Coordination within the wind farm is necessary to maximize power production. As upstream wind turbines only affect nearby downstream turbines, we can use MATS to efficiently learn the optimal control mechanism for the farm. To demonstrate the benefits of our method toward applications we apply MATS to a realistic wind farm control task. In this task, wind turbines must coordinate their alignments with respect to the incoming wind vector in order to optimize power production. Our results show that MATS improves significantly upon state-of-the-art coordination methods in terms of performance, demonstrating the value of using MATS in practical applications with sparse neighbourhood structures.

Timothy Verstraeten, Ann Nowe, Jonathan Keller et al.

Wind farms are an indispensable driver toward renewable and nonpolluting energy resources. However, as ideal sites are limited, placement in remote and challenging locations results in higher logistics costs and lower average wind speeds. Therefore, it is critical to increase the reliability of the turbines to reduce maintenance costs. Robust implementation requires a thorough understanding of the loads subject to the turbine's control. Yet, such dynamically changing multidimensional loads are uncommon with other machinery, and generally underresearched. Therefore, a multitiered approach is proposed to investigate the load spectrum occurring in wind farms. Our approach relies on both fundamental research using controllable test rigs, as well as analyses of real-world loading conditions in high-frequency supervisory control and data acquisition data. A method is introduced to detect operational zones in wind farm data and link them with load distributions. Additionally, while focused research further investigates the load spectrum, a method is proposed that continuously optimizes the farm's control protocols without the need to fully understand the loads that occur. A case of gearbox failure is investigated based on a vast body of past experiments and suspect loads are identified. Starting from this evidence on the cause and effects of dynamic loads, the potential of our methods is shown by analyzing real-world farm loading conditions on a steady-state case of wake and developing a preventive row-based control protocol for a case of cascading emergency brakes induced by a storm.