Abrar Eyasir

Tashreef Muhammad, Tahsin Ahmed, Meherun Farzana et al.

Accurate short-term forecasting of agricultural commodity prices is critical for food security planning and smallholder income stabilisation in developing economies, yet machine-learning-ready datasets for this purpose remain scarce in South Asia. This paper makes two contributions. First, we introduce AgriPriceBD, a benchmark dataset of 1,779 daily retail mid-prices for five Bangladeshi commodities - garlic, chickpea, green chilli, cucumber, and sweet pumpkin - spanning July 2020 to June 2025, extracted from government reports via an LLM-assisted digitisation pipeline. Second, we evaluate seven forecasting approaches spanning classical models - naïve persistence, SARIMA, and Prophet - and deep learning architectures - BiLSTM, Transformer, Time2Vec-enhanced Transformer, and Informer - with Diebold-Mariano statistical significance tests. Commodity price forecastability is fundamentally heterogeneous: naïve persistence dominates on near-random-walk commodities. Time2Vec temporal encoding provides no statistically significant advantage over fixed sinusoidal encoding and causes catastrophic degradation on green chilli (+146.1% MAE, p<0.001). Prophet fails systematically, attributable to discrete step-function price dynamics incompatible with its smooth decomposition assumptions. Informer produces erratic predictions (variance up to 50x ground-truth), confirming sparse-attention Transformers require substantially larger training sets than small agricultural datasets provide. All code, models, and data are released publicly to support replication and future forecasting research on agricultural commodity markets in Bangladesh and similar developing economies.

Abrar Eyasir, Tahsin Ahmed, Muhammad Ibrahim

Reading comprehension systems for low-resource languages face significant challenges in handling unanswerable questions. These systems tend to produce unreliable responses when correct answers are absent from context. To solve this problem, we introduce NCTB-QA, a large-scale Bangla question answering dataset comprising 87,805 question-answer pairs extracted from 50 textbooks published by Bangladesh's National Curriculum and Textbook Board. Unlike existing Bangla datasets, NCTB-QA maintains a balanced distribution of answerable (57.25%) and unanswerable (42.75%) questions. NCTB-QA also includes adversarially designed instances containing plausible distractors. We benchmark three transformer-based models (BERT, RoBERTa, ELECTRA) and demonstrate substantial improvements through fine-tuning. BERT achieves 313% relative improvement in F1 score (0.150 to 0.620). Semantic answer quality measured by BERTScore also increases significantly across all models. Our results establish NCTB-QA as a challenging benchmark for Bangla educational question answering. This study demonstrates that domain-specific fine-tuning is critical for robust performance in low-resource settings.