Zi-Gang Huang

Junjie Jiang, Zi-Gang Huang, Celso Grebogi et al.

We develop a deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) based framework for model-free prediction of the occurrence of extreme events both in time ("when") and in space ("where") in nonlinear physical systems of spatial dimension two. The measurements or data are a set of two-dimensional snapshots or images. For a desired time horizon of prediction, a proper labeling scheme can be designated to enable successful training of the DCNN and subsequent prediction of extreme events in time. Given that an extreme event has been predicted to occur within the time horizon, a space-based labeling scheme can be applied to predict, within certain resolution, the location at which the event will occur. We use synthetic data from the 2D complex Ginzburg-Landau equation and empirical wind speed data of the North Atlantic ocean to demonstrate and validate our machine-learning based prediction framework. The trade-offs among the prediction horizon, spatial resolution, and accuracy are illustrated, and the detrimental effect of spatially biased occurrence of extreme event on prediction accuracy is discussed. The deep learning framework is viable for predicting extreme events in the real world.

Yu-Zhong Chen, Zi-Gang Huang, Shouhuai Xu et al.

A relatively unexplored issue in cybersecurity science and engineering is whether there exist intrinsic patterns of cyberattacks. Conventional wisdom favors absence of such patterns due to the overwhelming complexity of the modern cyberspace. Surprisingly, through a detailed analysis of an extensive data set that records the time-dependent frequencies of attacks over a relatively wide range of consecutive IP addresses, we successfully uncover intrinsic spatiotemporal patterns underlying cyberattacks, where the term "spatio" refers to the IP address space. In particular, we focus on analyzing {\em macroscopic} properties of the attack traffic flows and identify two main patterns with distinct spatiotemporal characteristics: deterministic and stochastic. Strikingly, there are very few sets of major attackers committing almost all the attacks, since their attack "fingerprints" and target selection scheme can be unequivocally identified according to the very limited number of unique spatiotemporal characteristics, each of which only exists on a consecutive IP region and differs significantly from the others. We utilize a number of quantitative measures, including the flux-fluctuation law, the Markov state transition probability matrix, and predictability measures, to characterize the attack patterns in a comprehensive manner. A general finding is that the attack patterns possess high degrees of predictability, potentially paving the way to anticipating and, consequently, mitigating or even preventing large-scale cyberattacks using macroscopic approaches.

Le-Zhi Wang, Ri-Qi Su, Zi-Gang Huang et al.

In spite of the recent interest and advances in linear controllability of complex networks, controlling nonlinear network dynamics remains to be an outstanding problem. We develop an experimentally feasible control framework for nonlinear dynamical networks that exhibit multistability (multiple coexisting final states or attractors), which are representative of, e.g., gene regulatory networks (GRNs). The control objective is to apply parameter perturbation to drive the system from one attractor to another, assuming that the former is undesired and the latter is desired. To make our framework practically useful, we consider RESTRICTED parameter perturbation by imposing the following two constraints: (a) it must be experimentally realizable and (b) it is applied only temporarily. We introduce the concept of ATTRACTOR NETWORK, in which the nodes are the distinct attractors of the system, and there is a directional link from one attractor to another if the system can be driven from the former to the latter using restricted control perturbation. Introduction of the attractor network allows us to formulate a controllability framework for nonlinear dynamical networks: a network is more controllable if the underlying attractor network is more strongly connected, which can be quantified. We demonstrate our control framework using examples from various models of experimental GRNs. A finding is that, due to nonlinearity, noise can counter-intuitively facilitate control of the network dynamics.