Celso Grebogi

Junjie Jiang, Zi-Gang Huang, Celso Grebogi et al.

We develop a deep convolutional neural network (DCNN) based framework for model-free prediction of the occurrence of extreme events both in time ("when") and in space ("where") in nonlinear physical systems of spatial dimension two. The measurements or data are a set of two-dimensional snapshots or images. For a desired time horizon of prediction, a proper labeling scheme can be designated to enable successful training of the DCNN and subsequent prediction of extreme events in time. Given that an extreme event has been predicted to occur within the time horizon, a space-based labeling scheme can be applied to predict, within certain resolution, the location at which the event will occur. We use synthetic data from the 2D complex Ginzburg-Landau equation and empirical wind speed data of the North Atlantic ocean to demonstrate and validate our machine-learning based prediction framework. The trade-offs among the prediction horizon, spatial resolution, and accuracy are illustrated, and the detrimental effect of spatially biased occurrence of extreme event on prediction accuracy is discussed. The deep learning framework is viable for predicting extreme events in the real world.

Ling-Wei Kong, Hua-Wei Fan, Celso Grebogi et al.

To predict a critical transition due to parameter drift without relying on model is an outstanding problem in nonlinear dynamics and applied fields. A closely related problem is to predict whether the system is already in or if the system will be in a transient state preceding its collapse. We develop a model free, machine learning based solution to both problems by exploiting reservoir computing to incorporate a parameter input channel. We demonstrate that, when the machine is trained in the normal functioning regime with a chaotic attractor (i.e., before the critical transition), the transition point can be predicted accurately. Remarkably, for a parameter drift through the critical point, the machine with the input parameter channel is able to predict not only that the system will be in a transient state, but also the average transient time before the final collapse.

Chengwei Wang, Celso Grebogi, Murilo S. Baptista

Understanding the interactions among nodes in a complex network is of great importance, since they disclose how these nodes are cooperatively supporting the functioning of the network. Scientists have developed numerous methods to uncover the underlying adjacent physical connectivity based on measurements of functional quantities of the nodes states. Often, the physical connectivity, the adjacency matrix, is available. Yet, little is known about how this adjacent connectivity impacts on the "hidden" flows being exchanged between any two arbitrary nodes, after travelling longer non-adjacent paths. In this Letter, we show that hidden physical flows in conservative flow networks, a quantity that is usually inaccessible to measurements, can be determined by the interchange of physical flows between any pair of adjacent nodes. Our approach applies to steady or dynamic state of either linear or non-linear complex networks that can be modelled by conservative flow networks, such as gas supply networks, water supply networks and power grids.

Le-Zhi Wang, Ri-Qi Su, Zi-Gang Huang et al.

In spite of the recent interest and advances in linear controllability of complex networks, controlling nonlinear network dynamics remains to be an outstanding problem. We develop an experimentally feasible control framework for nonlinear dynamical networks that exhibit multistability (multiple coexisting final states or attractors), which are representative of, e.g., gene regulatory networks (GRNs). The control objective is to apply parameter perturbation to drive the system from one attractor to another, assuming that the former is undesired and the latter is desired. To make our framework practically useful, we consider RESTRICTED parameter perturbation by imposing the following two constraints: (a) it must be experimentally realizable and (b) it is applied only temporarily. We introduce the concept of ATTRACTOR NETWORK, in which the nodes are the distinct attractors of the system, and there is a directional link from one attractor to another if the system can be driven from the former to the latter using restricted control perturbation. Introduction of the attractor network allows us to formulate a controllability framework for nonlinear dynamical networks: a network is more controllable if the underlying attractor network is more strongly connected, which can be quantified. We demonstrate our control framework using examples from various models of experimental GRNs. A finding is that, due to nonlinearity, noise can counter-intuitively facilitate control of the network dynamics.