Arjun Ashok

Yizhong Wang, Swaroop Mishra, Pegah Alipoormolabashi et al. · allen-ai, amazon-science

How well can NLP models generalize to a variety of unseen tasks when provided with task instructions? To address this question, we first introduce Super-NaturalInstructions, a benchmark of 1,616 diverse NLP tasks and their expert-written instructions. Our collection covers 76 distinct task types, including but not limited to classification, extraction, infilling, sequence tagging, text rewriting, and text composition. This large and diverse collection of tasks enables rigorous benchmarking of cross-task generalization under instructions -- training models to follow instructions on a subset of tasks and evaluating them on the remaining unseen ones. Furthermore, we build Tk-Instruct, a transformer model trained to follow a variety of in-context instructions (plain language task definitions or k-shot examples). Our experiments show that Tk-Instruct outperforms existing instruction-following models such as InstructGPT by over 9% on our benchmark despite being an order of magnitude smaller. We further analyze generalization as a function of various scaling parameters, such as the number of observed tasks, the number of instances per task, and model sizes. We hope our dataset and model facilitate future progress towards more general-purpose NLP models.

Yihong Tang, Andrew Robert Williams, Arjun Ashok et al.

Time series forecasting in real-world settings often depends not only on historical observations, but also on external context that must be actively discovered from noisy, heterogeneous information sources. Yet existing context-aided forecasting benchmarks typically assume that the supporting context is already provided, leaving open whether agents can identify it on their own. Therefore, we introduce Dr-CiK, a benchmark for evaluating whether agents can retrieve forecasting-relevant supporting context from a document corpus, filter out distractors, distill the retrieved context into forecast-useful evidence, and generate forecasts supported by that evidence. Through context ablations and evaluations of state-of-the-art deep research and forecasting methods paired together, we show that high-quality context substantially improves forecasting performance in Dr-CiK. However, most existing DR agents recover only a small fraction of the ground-truth supporting evidence (usually <5%), are frequently misled by distractors (>80% distractor citations), and can cause forecasters to perform worse with retrieved context than without context. Our results motivate research on foresight-driven agents that search for the right context to predict the future.

Arjun Ashok, Étienne Marcotte, Valentina Zantedeschi et al.

We introduce a new model for multivariate probabilistic time series prediction, designed to flexibly address a range of tasks including forecasting, interpolation, and their combinations. Building on copula theory, we propose a simplified objective for the recently-introduced transformer-based attentional copulas (TACTiS), wherein the number of distributional parameters now scales linearly with the number of variables instead of factorially. The new objective requires the introduction of a training curriculum, which goes hand-in-hand with necessary changes to the original architecture. We show that the resulting model has significantly better training dynamics and achieves state-of-the-art performance across diverse real-world forecasting tasks, while maintaining the flexibility of prior work, such as seamless handling of unaligned and unevenly-sampled time series. Code is made available at https://github.com/ServiceNow/TACTiS.

Kashif Rasul, Arjun Ashok, Andrew Robert Williams et al.

Over the past years, foundation models have caused a paradigm shift in machine learning due to their unprecedented capabilities for zero-shot and few-shot generalization. However, despite the success of foundation models in modalities such as natural language processing and computer vision, the development of foundation models for time series forecasting has lagged behind. We present Lag-Llama, a general-purpose foundation model for univariate probabilistic time series forecasting based on a decoder-only transformer architecture that uses lags as covariates. Lag-Llama is pretrained on a large corpus of diverse time series data from several domains, and demonstrates strong zero-shot generalization capabilities compared to a wide range of forecasting models on downstream datasets across domains. Moreover, when fine-tuned on relatively small fractions of such previously unseen datasets, Lag-Llama achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming prior deep learning approaches, emerging as the best general-purpose model on average. Lag-Llama serves as a strong contender to the current state-of-art in time series forecasting and paves the way for future advancements in foundation models tailored to time series data.

Arjun Ashok, K J Joseph, Vineeth Balasubramanian

In class-incremental learning, the model is expected to learn new classes continually while maintaining knowledge on previous classes. The challenge here lies in preserving the model's ability to effectively represent prior classes in the feature space, while adapting it to represent incoming new classes. We propose two distillation-based objectives for class incremental learning that leverage the structure of the feature space to maintain accuracy on previous classes, as well as enable learning the new classes. In our first objective, termed cross-space clustering (CSC), we propose to use the feature space structure of the previous model to characterize directions of optimization that maximally preserve the class: directions that all instances of a specific class should collectively optimize towards, and those that they should collectively optimize away from. Apart from minimizing forgetting, this indirectly encourages the model to cluster all instances of a class in the current feature space, and gives rise to a sense of herd-immunity, allowing all samples of a class to jointly combat the model from forgetting the class. Our second objective termed controlled transfer (CT) tackles incremental learning from an understudied perspective of inter-class transfer. CT explicitly approximates and conditions the current model on the semantic similarities between incrementally arriving classes and prior classes. This allows the model to learn classes in such a way that it maximizes positive forward transfer from similar prior classes, thus increasing plasticity, and minimizes negative backward transfer on dissimilar prior classes, whereby strengthening stability. We perform extensive experiments on two benchmark datasets, adding our method (CSCCT) on top of three prominent class-incremental learning methods. We observe consistent performance improvement on a variety of experimental settings.

Andrija Djurisic, Nebojsa Bozanic, Arjun Ashok et al.

The separation between training and deployment of machine learning models implies that not all scenarios encountered in deployment can be anticipated during training, and therefore relying solely on advancements in training has its limits. Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is an important area that stress-tests a model's ability to handle unseen situations: Do models know when they don't know? Existing OOD detection methods either incur extra training steps, additional data or make nontrivial modifications to the trained network. In contrast, in this work, we propose an extremely simple, post-hoc, on-the-fly activation shaping method, ASH, where a large portion (e.g. 90%) of a sample's activation at a late layer is removed, and the rest (e.g. 10%) simplified or lightly adjusted. The shaping is applied at inference time, and does not require any statistics calculated from training data. Experiments show that such a simple treatment enhances in-distribution and out-of-distribution distinction so as to allow state-of-the-art OOD detection on ImageNet, and does not noticeably deteriorate the in-distribution accuracy. Video, animation and code can be found at: https://andrijazz.github.io/ash

Arjun Ashok, Chaitanya Devaguptapu, Vineeth Balasubramanian

Out-of-distribution (O.O.D.) generalization remains to be a key challenge for real-world machine learning systems. We describe a method for O.O.D. generalization that, through training, encourages models to only preserve features in the network that are well reused across multiple training domains. Our method combines two complementary neuron-level regularizers with a probabilistic differentiable binary mask over the network, to extract a modular sub-network that achieves better O.O.D. performance than the original network. Preliminary evaluation on two benchmark datasets corroborates the promise of our method.

Andrew Robert Williams, Arjun Ashok, Étienne Marcotte et al.

Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to convey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/.

Aiden Lewington, Alekhya Vittalam, Anshumaan Singh et al.

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) present significant risks and opportunities, requiring improved governance to mitigate societal harms and promote equitable benefits. Current incentive structures and regulatory delays may hinder responsible AI development and deployment, particularly in light of the transformative potential of large language models (LLMs). To address these challenges, we propose developing the following three contributions: (1) a large multimodal text and economic-timeseries foundation model that integrates economic and natural language policy data for enhanced forecasting and decision-making, (2) algorithmic mechanisms for eliciting diverse and representative perspectives, enabling the creation of data-driven public policy recommendations, and (3) an AI-driven web platform for supporting transparent, inclusive, and data-driven policymaking.

Vincent Zhihao Zheng, Étienne Marcotte, Arjun Ashok et al.

Context-aided forecasting (CAF) holds promise for integrating domain knowledge and forward-looking information, enabling AI systems to surpass traditional statistical methods. However, recent empirical studies reveal a puzzling gap: multimodal models often fail to outperform their unimodal counterparts. We hypothesize that this underperformance stems from poor context quality in existing datasets, as verification is challenging. To address these limitations, we introduce a semi-synthetic data augmentation method that generates contexts both descriptive of temporal dynamics and verifiably complementary to numerical histories. This approach enables massive-scale dataset creation, resulting in CAF-7M, a corpus of 7 million context-augmented time series windows, including a rigorously verified test set. We demonstrate that semi-synthetic pre-training transfers effectively to real-world evaluation, and show clear evidence of context utilization. Our results suggest that dataset quality, rather than architectural limitations, has been the primary bottleneck in context-aided forecasting.

Arjun Ashok, Andrew Robert Williams, Vincent Zhihao Zheng et al.

Forecasting in real-world settings requires models to integrate not only historical data but also relevant contextual information, often available in textual form. While recent work has shown that large language models (LLMs) can be effective context-aided forecasters via naïve direct prompting, their full potential remains underexplored. We address this gap with 4 strategies, providing new insights into the zero-shot capabilities of LLMs in this setting. ReDP improves interpretability by eliciting explicit reasoning traces, allowing us to assess the model's reasoning over the context independently from its forecast accuracy. CorDP leverages LLMs solely to refine existing forecasts with context, enhancing their applicability in real-world forecasting pipelines. IC-DP proposes embedding historical examples of context-aided forecasting tasks in the prompt, substantially improving accuracy even for the largest models. Finally, RouteDP optimizes resource efficiency by using LLMs to estimate task difficulty, and routing the most challenging tasks to larger models. Evaluated on different kinds of context-aided forecasting tasks from the CiK benchmark, our strategies demonstrate distinct benefits over naïve prompting across LLMs of different sizes and families. These results open the door to further simple yet effective improvements in LLM-based context-aided forecasting.

Roland Riachi, Kashif Rasul, Arjun Ashok et al.

Recent works have demonstrated the effectiveness of adapting pre-trained language models (LMs) for forecasting time series in the low-data regime. We build upon these findings by analyzing the effective transfer from language models to time series forecasting under various design choices including upstream post-training, time series tokenizer and language backbone size. In the low-data regime, these design choices have a significant impact on the validation loss, with clear-cut choices that outperform others. Contrary to Hernandez et al. (2021), we observe that the validation loss of the LMs continues to smoothly decrease long after the validation loss of the randomly initialized models has converged, leading to a non-vanishing transfer gap that holds across design choices. These findings not only help shed light on the effective use of compute-efficient training for time series, but also open the way for the study of modality-agnostic properties of data distributions leveraged by these models.

Aditya Mittal, Taha Abdullah, Arjun Ashok et al.

The growing influence of data science in statistics education requires tools that make key concepts accessible through real-world applications. We introduce "Data Science Looks At Discrimination" (dsld), an R package that provides a comprehensive set of analytical and graphical methods for examining issues of discrimination involving attributes such as race, gender, and age. By positioning fairness analysis as a teaching tool, the package enables instructors to demonstrate confounder effects, model bias, and related topics through applied examples. An accompanying 80-page Quarto book guides students and legal professionals in understanding these principles and applying them to real data. We describe the implementation of the package functions and illustrate their use with examples. Python interfaces are also available.