Valentina Zantedeschi

Yihong Tang, Andrew Robert Williams, Arjun Ashok et al.

Time series forecasting in real-world settings often depends not only on historical observations, but also on external context that must be actively discovered from noisy, heterogeneous information sources. Yet existing context-aided forecasting benchmarks typically assume that the supporting context is already provided, leaving open whether agents can identify it on their own. Therefore, we introduce Dr-CiK, a benchmark for evaluating whether agents can retrieve forecasting-relevant supporting context from a document corpus, filter out distractors, distill the retrieved context into forecast-useful evidence, and generate forecasts supported by that evidence. Through context ablations and evaluations of state-of-the-art deep research and forecasting methods paired together, we show that high-quality context substantially improves forecasting performance in Dr-CiK. However, most existing DR agents recover only a small fraction of the ground-truth supporting evidence (usually <5%), are frequently misled by distractors (>80% distractor citations), and can cause forecasters to perform worse with retrieved context than without context. Our results motivate research on foresight-driven agents that search for the right context to predict the future.

Gaurav Sahu, Abhay Puri, Juan Rodriguez et al. · mila

Data analytics is essential for extracting valuable insights from data that can assist organizations in making effective decisions. We introduce InsightBench, a benchmark dataset with three key features. First, it consists of 100 datasets representing diverse business use cases such as finance and incident management, each accompanied by a carefully curated set of insights planted in the datasets. Second, unlike existing benchmarks focusing on answering single queries, InsightBench evaluates agents based on their ability to perform end-to-end data analytics, including formulating questions, interpreting answers, and generating a summary of insights and actionable steps. Third, we conducted comprehensive quality assurance to ensure that each dataset in the benchmark had clear goals and included relevant and meaningful questions and analysis. Furthermore, we implement a two-way evaluation mechanism using LLaMA-3 as an effective, open-source evaluator to assess agents' ability to extract insights. We also propose AgentPoirot, our baseline data analysis agent capable of performing end-to-end data analytics. Our evaluation on InsightBench shows that AgentPoirot outperforms existing approaches (such as Pandas Agent) that focus on resolving single queries. We also compare the performance of open- and closed-source LLMs and various evaluation strategies. Overall, this benchmark serves as a testbed to motivate further development in comprehensive automated data analytics and can be accessed here: https://github.com/ServiceNow/insight-bench.

Arjun Ashok, Étienne Marcotte, Valentina Zantedeschi et al.

We introduce a new model for multivariate probabilistic time series prediction, designed to flexibly address a range of tasks including forecasting, interpolation, and their combinations. Building on copula theory, we propose a simplified objective for the recently-introduced transformer-based attentional copulas (TACTiS), wherein the number of distributional parameters now scales linearly with the number of variables instead of factorially. The new objective requires the introduction of a training curriculum, which goes hand-in-hand with necessary changes to the original architecture. We show that the resulting model has significantly better training dynamics and achieves state-of-the-art performance across diverse real-world forecasting tasks, while maintaining the flexibility of prior work, such as seamless handling of unaligned and unevenly-sampled time series. Code is made available at https://github.com/ServiceNow/TACTiS.

Kashif Rasul, Arjun Ashok, Andrew Robert Williams et al.

Over the past years, foundation models have caused a paradigm shift in machine learning due to their unprecedented capabilities for zero-shot and few-shot generalization. However, despite the success of foundation models in modalities such as natural language processing and computer vision, the development of foundation models for time series forecasting has lagged behind. We present Lag-Llama, a general-purpose foundation model for univariate probabilistic time series forecasting based on a decoder-only transformer architecture that uses lags as covariates. Lag-Llama is pretrained on a large corpus of diverse time series data from several domains, and demonstrates strong zero-shot generalization capabilities compared to a wide range of forecasting models on downstream datasets across domains. Moreover, when fine-tuned on relatively small fractions of such previously unseen datasets, Lag-Llama achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming prior deep learning approaches, emerging as the best general-purpose model on average. Lag-Llama serves as a strong contender to the current state-of-art in time series forecasting and paves the way for future advancements in foundation models tailored to time series data.

Valentina Zantedeschi, Luca Franceschi, Jean Kaddour et al.

We propose a continuous optimization framework for discovering a latent directed acyclic graph (DAG) from observational data. Our approach optimizes over the polytope of permutation vectors, the so-called Permutahedron, to learn a topological ordering. Edges can be optimized jointly, or learned conditional on the ordering via a non-differentiable subroutine. Compared to existing continuous optimization approaches our formulation has a number of advantages including: 1. validity: optimizes over exact DAGs as opposed to other relaxations optimizing approximate DAGs; 2. modularity: accommodates any edge-optimization procedure, edge structural parameterization, and optimization loss; 3. end-to-end: either alternately iterates between node-ordering and edge-optimization, or optimizes them jointly. We demonstrate, on real-world data problems in protein-signaling and transcriptional network discovery, that our approach lies on the Pareto frontier of two key metrics, the SID and SHD.

Stephanie Long, Alexandre Piché, Valentina Zantedeschi et al.

Understanding the causal relationships that underlie a system is a fundamental prerequisite to accurate decision-making. In this work, we explore how expert knowledge can be used to improve the data-driven identification of causal graphs, beyond Markov equivalence classes. In doing so, we consider a setting where we can query an expert about the orientation of causal relationships between variables, but where the expert may provide erroneous information. We propose strategies for amending such expert knowledge based on consistency properties, e.g., acyclicity and conditional independencies in the equivalence class. We then report a case study, on real data, where a large language model is used as an imperfect expert.

Étienne Marcotte, Valentina Zantedeschi, Alexandre Drouin et al.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Felix Biggs, Valentina Zantedeschi, Benjamin Guedj

We study the generalisation properties of majority voting on finite ensembles of classifiers, proving margin-based generalisation bounds via the PAC-Bayes theory. These provide state-of-the-art guarantees on a number of classification tasks. Our central results leverage the Dirichlet posteriors studied recently by Zantedeschi et al. [2021] for training voting classifiers; in contrast to that work our bounds apply to non-randomised votes via the use of margins. Our contributions add perspective to the debate on the "margins theory" proposed by Schapire et al. [1998] for the generalisation of ensemble classifiers.

Andrew J. Wren, Pasquale Minervini, Luca Franceschi et al.

Recently continuous relaxations have been proposed in order to learn Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) from data by backpropagation, instead of using combinatorial optimization. However, a number of techniques for fully discrete backpropagation could instead be applied. In this paper, we explore that direction and propose DAG-DB, a framework for learning DAGs by Discrete Backpropagation. Based on the architecture of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation [I-MLE, arXiv:2106.01798], DAG-DB adopts a probabilistic approach to the problem, sampling binary adjacency matrices from an implicit probability distribution. DAG-DB learns a parameter for the distribution from the loss incurred by each sample, performing competitively using either of two fully discrete backpropagation techniques, namely I-MLE and Straight-Through Estimation.

Mathieu Bazinet, Valentina Zantedeschi, Pascal Germain

The sample compression theory provides generalization guarantees for predictors that can be fully defined using a subset of the training dataset and a (short) message string, generally defined as a binary sequence. Previous works provided generalization bounds for the zero-one loss, which is restrictive notably when applied to deep learning approaches. In this paper, we present a general framework for deriving new sample compression bounds that hold for real-valued unbounded losses. Using the Pick-To-Learn (P2L) meta-algorithm, which transforms the training method of any machine-learning predictor to yield sample-compressed predictors, we empirically demonstrate the tightness of the bounds and their versatility by evaluating them on random forests and multiple types of neural networks.

Mathieu Bazinet, Valentina Zantedeschi, Pascal Germain

Generalization bounds for deep learning models are typically vacuous, not computable or restricted to specific model classes. In this paper, we tackle these issues by providing new disagreement-based certificates for the gap between the true risk of any two predictors. We then bound the true risk of the predictor of interest via a surrogate model that enjoys tight generalization guarantees, and evaluating our disagreement bound on an unlabeled dataset. We empirically demonstrate the tightness of the obtained certificates and showcase the versatility of the approach by training surrogate models leveraging three different frameworks: sample compression, model compression and PAC-Bayes theory. Importantly, such guarantees are achieved without modifying the target model, nor adapting the training procedure to the generalization framework.

Joao Monteiro, Pierre-Andre Noel, Etienne Marcotte et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are trained on vast amounts of data, most of which is automatically scraped from the internet. This data includes encyclopedic documents that harbor a vast amount of general knowledge (e.g., Wikipedia) but also potentially overlap with benchmark datasets used for evaluating LLMs. Consequently, evaluating models on test splits that might have leaked into the training set is prone to misleading conclusions. To foster sound evaluation of language models, we introduce a new test dataset named RepLiQA, suited for question-answering and topic retrieval tasks. RepLiQA is a collection of five splits of test sets, four of which have not been released to the internet or exposed to LLM APIs prior to this publication. Each sample in RepLiQA comprises (1) a reference document crafted by a human annotator and depicting an imaginary scenario (e.g., a news article) absent from the internet; (2) a question about the document's topic; (3) a ground-truth answer derived directly from the information in the document; and (4) the paragraph extracted from the reference document containing the answer. As such, accurate answers can only be generated if a model can find relevant content within the provided document. We run a large-scale benchmark comprising several state-of-the-art LLMs to uncover differences in performance across models of various types and sizes in a context-conditional language modeling setting. Released splits of RepLiQA can be found here: https://huggingface.co/datasets/ServiceNow/repliqa.

Valentina Zantedeschi, Matt J. Kusner, Vlad Niculae

We address the problem of learning binary decision trees that partition data for some downstream task. We propose to learn discrete parameters (i.e., for tree traversals and node pruning) and continuous parameters (i.e., for tree split functions and prediction functions) simultaneously using argmin differentiation. We do so by sparsely relaxing a mixed-integer program for the discrete parameters, to allow gradients to pass through the program to continuous parameters. We derive customized algorithms to efficiently compute the forward and backward passes. This means that our tree learning procedure can be used as an (implicit) layer in arbitrary deep networks, and can be optimized with arbitrary loss functions. We demonstrate that our approach produces binary trees that are competitive with existing single tree and ensemble approaches, in both supervised and unsupervised settings. Further, apart from greedy approaches (which do not have competitive accuracies), our method is faster to train than all other tree-learning baselines we compare with. The code for reproducing the results is available at https://github.com/vzantedeschi/LatentTrees.

Maria-Irina Nicolae, Mathieu Sinn, Minh Ngoc Tran et al.

Adversarial Robustness Toolbox (ART) is a Python library supporting developers and researchers in defending Machine Learning models (Deep Neural Networks, Gradient Boosted Decision Trees, Support Vector Machines, Random Forests, Logistic Regression, Gaussian Processes, Decision Trees, Scikit-learn Pipelines, etc.) against adversarial threats and helps making AI systems more secure and trustworthy. Machine Learning models are vulnerable to adversarial examples, which are inputs (images, texts, tabular data, etc.) deliberately modified to produce a desired response by the Machine Learning model. ART provides the tools to build and deploy defences and test them with adversarial attacks. Defending Machine Learning models involves certifying and verifying model robustness and model hardening with approaches such as pre-processing inputs, augmenting training data with adversarial samples, and leveraging runtime detection methods to flag any inputs that might have been modified by an adversary. The attacks implemented in ART allow creating adversarial attacks against Machine Learning models which is required to test defenses with state-of-the-art threat models. Supported Machine Learning Libraries include TensorFlow (v1 and v2), Keras, PyTorch, MXNet, Scikit-learn, XGBoost, LightGBM, CatBoost, and GPy. The source code of ART is released with MIT license at https://github.com/IBM/adversarial-robustness-toolbox. The release includes code examples, notebooks with tutorials and documentation (http://adversarial-robustness-toolbox.readthedocs.io).

Andrew Robert Williams, Arjun Ashok, Étienne Marcotte et al.

Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to convey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/.

João Monteiro, Étienne Marcotte, Pierre-André Noël et al.

In-context learning (ICL) approaches typically leverage prompting to condition decoder-only language model generation on reference information. Just-in-time processing of a context is inefficient due to the quadratic cost of self-attention operations, and caching is desirable. However, caching transformer states can easily require almost as much space as the model parameters. When the right context isn't known in advance, caching ICL can be challenging. This work addresses these limitations by introducing models that, inspired by the encoder-decoder architecture, use cross-attention to condition generation on reference text without the prompt. More precisely, we leverage pre-trained decoder-only models and only train a small number of added layers. We use Question-Answering (QA) as a testbed to evaluate the ability of our models to perform conditional generation and observe that they outperform ICL, are comparable to fine-tuned prompted LLMs, and drastically reduce the space footprint relative to standard KV caching by two orders of magnitude.

Paul Viallard, Rémi Emonet, Amaury Habrard et al.

In statistical learning theory, a generalization bound usually involves a complexity measure imposed by the considered theoretical framework. This limits the scope of such bounds, as other forms of capacity measures or regularizations are used in algorithms. In this paper, we leverage the framework of disintegrated PAC-Bayes bounds to derive a general generalization bound instantiable with arbitrary complexity measures. One trick to prove such a result involves considering a commonly used family of distributions: the Gibbs distributions. Our bound stands in probability jointly over the hypothesis and the learning sample, which allows the complexity to be adapted to the generalization gap as it can be customized to fit both the hypothesis class and the task.

Issam Laradji, Perouz Taslakian, Sai Rajeswar et al.

The extraction of a small number of relevant insights from vast amounts of data is a crucial component of data-driven decision-making. However, accomplishing this task requires considerable technical skills, domain expertise, and human labor. This study explores the potential of using Large Language Models (LLMs) to automate the discovery of insights in data, leveraging recent advances in reasoning and code generation techniques. We propose a new evaluation methodology based on a "capture the flag" principle, measuring the ability of such models to recognize meaningful and pertinent information (flags) in a dataset. We further propose two proof-of-concept agents, with different inner workings, and compare their ability to capture such flags in a real-world sales dataset. While the work reported here is preliminary, our results are sufficiently interesting to mandate future exploration by the community.

Aarash Feizi, Sai Rajeswar, Adriana Romero-Soriano et al.

Understanding how effectively large vision language models (VLMs) compare visual inputs is crucial across numerous applications, yet this fundamental capability remains insufficiently assessed. While VLMs are increasingly deployed for tasks requiring comparative judgment, including automated evaluation, re-ranking, and retrieval-augmented generation, no systematic framework exists to measure their performance in these scenarios. We present PairBench, a simple framework that evaluates VLMs as customizable similarity tools using widely available image datasets. Our approach introduces four key metrics for reliable comparison: alignment with human annotations, consistency across pair ordering, distribution smoothness, and controllability through prompting. Our analysis reveals that no model consistently excels across all metrics, with each demonstrating distinct strengths and weaknesses. Most concerning is the widespread inability of VLMs to maintain symmetric similarity scores. Interestingly, we demonstrate that performance on our benchmark strongly correlates with popular benchmarks used for more complex tasks, while providing additional metrics into controllability, smoothness and ordering. This makes PairBench a unique and comprehensive framework to evaluate the performance of VLMs for automatic evaluation depending on the task.

Mehrnaz Mofakhami, Reza Bayat, Ioannis Mitliagkas et al.

Early Exiting (EE) is a promising technique for speeding up inference by adaptively allocating compute resources to data points based on their difficulty. The approach enables predictions to exit at earlier layers for simpler samples while reserving more computation for challenging ones. In this study, we first present a novel perspective on the EE approach, showing that larger models deployed with EE can achieve higher performance than smaller models while maintaining similar computational costs. As existing EE approaches rely on confidence estimation at each exit point, we further study the impact of overconfidence on the controllability of the compute-performance trade-off. We introduce Performance Control Early Exiting (PCEE), a method that enables accuracy thresholding by basing decisions not on a data point's confidence but on the average accuracy of samples with similar confidence levels from a held-out validation set. In our experiments, we show that PCEE offers a simple yet computationally efficient approach that provides better control over performance than standard confidence-based approaches, and allows us to scale up model sizes to yield performance gain while reducing the computational cost.

Oscar Clivio, Divyat Mahajan, Perouz Taslakian et al.

Integrating expert knowledge, e.g. from large language models, into causal discovery algorithms can be challenging when the knowledge is not guaranteed to be correct. Expert recommendations may contradict data-driven results, and their reliability can vary significantly depending on the domain or specific query. Existing methods based on soft constraints or inconsistencies in predicted causal relationships fail to account for these variations in expertise. To remedy this, we propose L2D-CD, a method for gauging the correctness of expert recommendations and optimally combining them with data-driven causal discovery results. By adapting learning-to-defer (L2D) algorithms for pairwise causal discovery (CD), we learn a deferral function that selects whether to rely on classical causal discovery methods using numerical data or expert recommendations based on textual meta-data. We evaluate L2D-CD on the canonical Tübingen pairs dataset and demonstrate its superior performance compared to both the causal discovery method and the expert used in isolation. Moreover, our approach identifies domains where the expert's performance is strong or weak. Finally, we outline a strategy for generalizing this approach to causal discovery on graphs with more than two variables, paving the way for further research in this area.

Vincent Zhihao Zheng, Étienne Marcotte, Arjun Ashok et al.

Context-aided forecasting (CAF) holds promise for integrating domain knowledge and forward-looking information, enabling AI systems to surpass traditional statistical methods. However, recent empirical studies reveal a puzzling gap: multimodal models often fail to outperform their unimodal counterparts. We hypothesize that this underperformance stems from poor context quality in existing datasets, as verification is challenging. To address these limitations, we introduce a semi-synthetic data augmentation method that generates contexts both descriptive of temporal dynamics and verifiably complementary to numerical histories. This approach enables massive-scale dataset creation, resulting in CAF-7M, a corpus of 7 million context-augmented time series windows, including a rigorously verified test set. We demonstrate that semi-synthetic pre-training transfers effectively to real-world evaluation, and show clear evidence of context utilization. Our results suggest that dataset quality, rather than architectural limitations, has been the primary bottleneck in context-aided forecasting.

Arjun Ashok, Andrew Robert Williams, Vincent Zhihao Zheng et al.

Forecasting in real-world settings requires models to integrate not only historical data but also relevant contextual information, often available in textual form. While recent work has shown that large language models (LLMs) can be effective context-aided forecasters via naïve direct prompting, their full potential remains underexplored. We address this gap with 4 strategies, providing new insights into the zero-shot capabilities of LLMs in this setting. ReDP improves interpretability by eliciting explicit reasoning traces, allowing us to assess the model's reasoning over the context independently from its forecast accuracy. CorDP leverages LLMs solely to refine existing forecasts with context, enhancing their applicability in real-world forecasting pipelines. IC-DP proposes embedding historical examples of context-aided forecasting tasks in the prompt, substantially improving accuracy even for the largest models. Finally, RouteDP optimizes resource efficiency by using LLMs to estimate task difficulty, and routing the most challenging tasks to larger models. Evaluated on different kinds of context-aided forecasting tasks from the CiK benchmark, our strategies demonstrate distinct benefits over naïve prompting across LLMs of different sizes and families. These results open the door to further simple yet effective improvements in LLM-based context-aided forecasting.

Shubham Gupta, Zichao Li, Tianyi Chen et al.

Document retrieval is a core component of question-answering systems, as it enables conditioning answer generation on new and large-scale corpora. While effective, the standard practice of encoding documents into high-dimensional embeddings for similarity search entails large memory and compute footprints, and also makes it hard to inspect the inner workings of the system. In this paper, we propose a tree-based method for organizing and representing reference documents at various granular levels, which offers the flexibility to balance cost and utility, and eases the inspection of the corpus content and retrieval operations. Our method, called ReTreever, jointly learns a routing function per internal node of a binary tree such that query and reference documents are assigned to similar tree branches, hence directly optimizing for retrieval performance. Our evaluations show that ReTreever generally preserves full representation accuracy. Its hierarchical structure further provides strong coarse representations and enhances transparency by indirectly learning meaningful semantic groupings. Among hierarchical retrieval methods, ReTreever achieves the best retrieval accuracy at the lowest latency, proving that this family of techniques can be viable in practical applications.

Vít Růžička, Anna Vaughan, Daniele De Martini et al.

In this paper, we introduce RaVAEn, a lightweight, unsupervised approach for change detection in satellite data based on Variational Auto-Encoders (VAEs) with the specific purpose of on-board deployment. Applications such as disaster management enormously benefit from the rapid availability of satellite observations. Traditionally, data analysis is performed on the ground after all data is transferred - downlinked - to a ground station. Constraint on the downlink capabilities therefore affects any downstream application. In contrast, RaVAEn pre-processes the sampled data directly on the satellite and flags changed areas to prioritise for downlink, shortening the response time. We verified the efficacy of our system on a dataset composed of time series of catastrophic events - which we plan to release alongside this publication - demonstrating that RaVAEn outperforms pixel-wise baselines. Finally we tested our approach on resource-limited hardware for assessing computational and memory limitations.

Valentina Zantedeschi, Paul Viallard, Emilie Morvant et al.

We investigate a stochastic counterpart of majority votes over finite ensembles of classifiers, and study its generalization properties. While our approach holds for arbitrary distributions, we instantiate it with Dirichlet distributions: this allows for a closed-form and differentiable expression for the expected risk, which then turns the generalization bound into a tractable training objective. The resulting stochastic majority vote learning algorithm achieves state-of-the-art accuracy and benefits from (non-vacuous) tight generalization bounds, in a series of numerical experiments when compared to competing algorithms which also minimize PAC-Bayes objectives -- both with uninformed (data-independent) and informed (data-dependent) priors.

Christian Schroeder de Witt, Catherine Tong, Valentina Zantedeschi et al.

Extreme precipitation events, such as violent rainfall and hail storms, routinely ravage economies and livelihoods around the developing world. Climate change further aggravates this issue. Data-driven deep learning approaches could widen the access to accurate multi-day forecasts, to mitigate against such events. However, there is currently no benchmark dataset dedicated to the study of global precipitation forecasts. In this paper, we introduce \textbf{RainBench}, a new multi-modal benchmark dataset for data-driven precipitation forecasting. It includes simulated satellite data, a selection of relevant meteorological data from the ERA5 reanalysis product, and IMERG precipitation data. We also release \textbf{PyRain}, a library to process large precipitation datasets efficiently. We present an extensive analysis of our novel dataset and establish baseline results for two benchmark medium-range precipitation forecasting tasks. Finally, we discuss existing data-driven weather forecasting methodologies and suggest future research avenues.

Valentina Zantedeschi, Fabrizio Falasca, Alyson Douglas et al.

One of the greatest sources of uncertainty in future climate projections comes from limitations in modelling clouds and in understanding how different cloud types interact with the climate system. A key first step in reducing this uncertainty is to accurately classify cloud types at high spatial and temporal resolution. In this paper, we introduce Cumulo, a benchmark dataset for training and evaluating global cloud classification models. It consists of one year of 1km resolution MODIS hyperspectral imagery merged with pixel-width 'tracks' of CloudSat cloud labels. Bringing these complementary datasets together is a crucial first step, enabling the Machine-Learning community to develop innovative new techniques which could greatly benefit the Climate community. To showcase Cumulo, we provide baseline performance analysis using an invertible flow generative model (IResNet), which further allows us to discover new sub-classes for a given cloud class by exploring the latent space. To compare methods, we introduce a set of evaluation criteria, to identify models that are not only accurate, but also physically-realistic. CUMULO can be download from https://www.dropbox.com/sh/i3s9q2v2jjyk2it/AACxXnXfMF5wuIqLXqH4NJOra?dl=0 .

Léo Gautheron, Pascal Germain, Amaury Habrard et al.

We propose a Gradient Boosting algorithm for learning an ensemble of kernel functions adapted to the task at hand. Unlike state-of-the-art Multiple Kernel Learning techniques that make use of a pre-computed dictionary of kernel functions to select from, at each iteration we fit a kernel by approximating it as a weighted sum of Random Fourier Features (RFF) and by optimizing their barycenter. This allows us to obtain a more versatile method, easier to setup and likely to have better performance. Our study builds on a recent result showing one can learn a kernel from RFF by computing the minimum of a PAC-Bayesian bound on the kernel alignment generalization loss, which is obtained efficiently from a closed-form solution. We conduct an experimental analysis to highlight the advantages of our method w.r.t. both Boosting-based and kernel-learning state-of-the-art methods.

Valentina Zantedeschi, Aurélien Bellet, Marc Tommasi

We consider the fully decentralized machine learning scenario where many users with personal datasets collaborate to learn models through local peer-to-peer exchanges, without a central coordinator. We propose to train personalized models that leverage a collaboration graph describing the relationships between user personal tasks, which we learn jointly with the models. Our fully decentralized optimization procedure alternates between training nonlinear models given the graph in a greedy boosting manner, and updating the collaboration graph (with controlled sparsity) given the models. Throughout the process, users exchange messages only with a small number of peers (their direct neighbors when updating the models, and a few random users when updating the graph), ensuring that the procedure naturally scales with the number of users. Overall, our approach is communication-efficient and avoids exchanging personal data. We provide an extensive analysis of the convergence rate, memory and communication complexity of our approach, and demonstrate its benefits compared to competing techniques on synthetic and real datasets.

Valentina Zantedeschi, Maria-Irina Nicolae, Ambrish Rawat

Following the recent adoption of deep neural networks (DNN) accross a wide range of applications, adversarial attacks against these models have proven to be an indisputable threat. Adversarial samples are crafted with a deliberate intention of undermining a system. In the case of DNNs, the lack of better understanding of their working has prevented the development of efficient defenses. In this paper, we propose a new defense method based on practical observations which is easy to integrate into models and performs better than state-of-the-art defenses. Our proposed solution is meant to reinforce the structure of a DNN, making its prediction more stable and less likely to be fooled by adversarial samples. We conduct an extensive experimental study proving the efficiency of our method against multiple attacks, comparing it to numerous defenses, both in white-box and black-box setups. Additionally, the implementation of our method brings almost no overhead to the training procedure, while maintaining the prediction performance of the original model on clean samples.

Valentina Zantedeschi, Rémi Emonet, Marc Sebban

For their ability to capture non-linearities in the data and to scale to large training sets, local Support Vector Machines (SVMs) have received a special attention during the past decade. In this paper, we introduce a new local SVM method, called L$^3$-SVMs, which clusters the input space, carries out dimensionality reduction by projecting the data on landmarks, and jointly learns a linear combination of local models. Simple and effective, our algorithm is also theoretically well-founded. Using the framework of Uniform Stability, we show that our SVM formulation comes with generalization guarantees on the true risk. The experiments based on the simplest configuration of our model (i.e. landmarks randomly selected, linear projection, linear kernel) show that L$^3$-SVMs is very competitive w.r.t. the state of the art and opens the door to new exciting lines of research.

Valentina Zantedeschi, Rémi Emonet, Marc Sebban

Many theoretical results in the machine learning domain stand only for functions that are Lipschitz continuous. Lipschitz continuity is a strong form of continuity that linearly bounds the variations of a function. In this paper, we derive tight Lipschitz constants for two families of metrics: Mahalanobis distances and bounded-space bilinear forms. To our knowledge, this is the first time the Mahalanobis distance is formally proved to be Lipschitz continuous and that such tight Lipschitz constants are derived.