Christopher King

Andrew Cullen, Pietro Ferraro, Christopher King et al.

Recently, Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) based Distributed Ledgers have been proposed for various applications in the smart mobility domain [1]. While many application studies have been described in the literature, an open problem in the DLT community concerns the lack of mathematical models describing their behaviour, and their validation. Building on a previous work in [1], we present, in this paper, a fluid based approximation for the IOTA Foundation DAG based DLT that incorporates varying transaction delays. This extension, namely the inclusion of varying delays, is important for feedback control applications (such as transactive control [2]). Extensive simulations are presented to illustrate the efficacy of our approach.

Dingwen Li, Bing Xue, Christopher King et al.

Major postoperative complications are devastating to surgical patients. Some of these complications are potentially preventable via early predictions based on intraoperative data. However, intraoperative data comprise long and fine-grained multivariate time series, prohibiting the effective learning of accurate models. The large gaps associated with clinical events and protocols are usually ignored. Moreover, deep models generally lack transparency. Nevertheless, the interpretability is crucial to assist clinicians in planning for and delivering postoperative care and timely interventions. Towards this end, we propose a hierarchical model combining the strength of both attention and recurrent models for intraoperative time series. We further develop an explanation module for the hierarchical model to interpret the predictions by providing contributions of intraoperative data in a fine-grained manner. Experiments on a large dataset of 111,888 surgeries with multiple outcomes and an external high-resolution ICU dataset show that our model can achieve strong predictive performance (i.e., high accuracy) and offer robust interpretations (i.e., high transparency) for predicted outcomes based on intraoperative time series.

Hao Liu, Muhan Zhang, Zehao Dong et al.

Rich Electronic Health Records (EHR), have created opportunities to improve clinical processes using machine learning methods. Prediction of the same patient events at different time horizons can have very different applications and interpretations; however, limited number of events in each potential time window hurts the effectiveness of conventional machine learning algorithms. We propose a novel time associated meta learning (TAML) method to make effective predictions at multiple future time points. We view time-associated disease prediction as classification tasks at multiple time points. Such closely-related classification tasks are an excellent candidate for model-based meta learning. To address the sparsity problem after task splitting, TAML employs a temporal information sharing strategy to augment the number of positive samples and include the prediction of related phenotypes or events in the meta-training phase. We demonstrate the effectiveness of TAML on multiple clinical datasets, where it consistently outperforms a range of strong baselines. We also develop a MetaEHR package for implementing both time-associated and time-independent few-shot prediction on EHR data.

Lecheng Kong, Christopher King, Bradley Fritz et al.

Learning to represent free text is a core task in many clinical machine learning (ML) applications, as clinical text contains observations and plans not otherwise available for inference. State-of-the-art methods use large language models developed with immense computational resources and training data; however, applying these models is challenging because of the highly varying syntax and vocabulary in clinical free text. Structured information such as International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes often succinctly abstracts the most important facts of a clinical encounter and yields good performance, but is often not as available as clinical text in real-world scenarios. We propose a \textbf{multi-view learning framework} that jointly learns from codes and text to combine the availability and forward-looking nature of text and better performance of ICD codes. The learned text embeddings can be used as inputs to predictive algorithms independent of the ICD codes during inference. Our approach uses a Graph Neural Network (GNN) to process ICD codes, and Bi-LSTM to process text. We apply Deep Canonical Correlation Analysis (DCCA) to enforce the two views to learn a similar representation of each patient. In experiments using planned surgical procedure text, our model outperforms BERT models fine-tuned to clinical data, and in experiments using diverse text in MIMIC-III, our model is competitive to a fine-tuned BERT at a tiny fraction of its computational effort.

Ronak Dedhiya, Siva Teja Kakileti, Goutham Deepu et al.

Onchocerciasis is causing blindness in over half a million people in the world today. Drug development for the disease is crippled as there is no way of measuring effectiveness of the drug without an invasive procedure. Drug efficacy measurement through assessment of viability of onchocerca worms requires the patients to undergo nodulectomy which is invasive, expensive, time-consuming, skill-dependent, infrastructure dependent and lengthy process. In this paper, we discuss the first-ever study that proposes use of machine learning over thermal imaging to non-invasively and accurately predict the viability of worms. The key contributions of the paper are (i) a unique thermal imaging protocol along with pre-processing steps such as alignment, registration and segmentation to extract interpretable features (ii) extraction of relevant semantic features (iii) development of accurate classifiers for detecting the existence of viable worms in a nodule. When tested on a prospective test data of 30 participants with 48 palpable nodules, we achieved an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.85.

Jonathan P. Epperlein, Roman Overko, Sergiy Zhuk et al.

Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms aim to learn optimal decisions in unknown environments through experience of taking actions and observing the rewards gained. In some cases, the environment is not influenced by the actions of the RL agent, in which case the problem can be modeled as a contextual multi-armed bandit and lightweight myopic algorithms can be employed. On the other hand, when the RL agent's actions affect the environment, the problem must be modeled as a Markov decision process and more complex RL algorithms are required which take the future effects of actions into account. Moreover, in practice, it is often unknown from the outset whether or not the agent's actions will impact the environment and it is therefore not possible to determine which RL algorithm is most fitting. In this work, we propose to avoid this difficult decision entirely and incorporate a choice mechanism into our RL framework. Rather than assuming a specific problem structure, we use a probabilistic structure estimation procedure based on a likelihood-ratio (LR) test to make a more informed selection of learning algorithm. We derive a sufficient condition under which myopic policies are optimal, present an LR test for this condition, and derive a bound on the regret of our framework. We provide examples of real-world scenarios where our framework is needed and provide extensive simulations to validate our approach.

Andrew Cullen, Pietro Ferraro, Christopher King et al.

Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) based Distributed Ledgers can be useful in a number of applications in the IoT domain. A distributed ledger should serve as an immutable and irreversible record of transactions, however, a DAG structure is a more complicated mathematical object than its blockchain counterparts, and as a result, providing guarantees of immutability and irreversibility is more involved. In this paper, we analyse a commonly discussed attack scenario known as a parasite chain attack for the IOTA Foundation DAG based ledger. We analyse the efficacy of IOTA core MCMC algorithm using a matrix model and present an extension which improves the ledger resistance to these attacks.

Pietro Ferraro, Christopher King, Robert Shorten

Directed Acylic Graphs (DAGs) are emerging as an attractive alternative to traditional blockchain architectures for distributed ledger technology (DLT). In particular DAG ledgers with stochastic attachment mechanisms potentially offer many advantages over blockchain, including scalability and faster transaction speeds. However, the random nature of the attachment mechanism coupled with the requirement of protection against double-spend transactions leaves open the possibility that not all transactions will be eventually validated. Such transactions are said to be orphaned, and will never be validated. Our principal contribution is to propose a simple modification to the attachment mechanism for the Tangle (the IOTA DAG architecture). This modification ensures that all transactions are validated in finite time, and preserves essential features of the popular Monte-Carlo selection algorithm. In order to demonstrate these results we derive a fluid approximation for the Tangle (in the limit of infinite arrival rate) and prove that this fluid model exhibits the desired behavior. We also present simulations which validate the results for finite arrival rates.

Pietro Ferraro, Christopher King, Robert Shorten

This paper describes how Distributed Ledger Technologies can be used to design a class of cyber-physical systems, as well as to enforce social contracts and to orchestrate the behaviour of agents trying to access a shared resource. The first part of the paper analyses the advantages and disadvantages of using Distributed Ledger Technologies architectures to implement certain control systems in an Internet of Things (IoT) setting, and then focuses on a specific type of DLT based on a Directed Acyclic Graph. In this setting we propose a set of delay differential equations to describe the dynamical behaviour of the Tangle, an IoT-inspired Directed Acyclic Graph designed for the cryptocurrency IOTA. The second part proposes an application of Distributed Ledger Technologies as a mechanism for dynamic deposit pricing, wherein the deposit of digital currency is used to orchestrate access to a network of shared resources. The pricing signal is used as a mechanism to enforce the desired level of compliance according to a predetermined set of rules. After presenting an illustrative example, we analyze the control system and provide sufficient conditions for the stability of the network.