Lorenzo Proietti

Stefano Perrella, Lorenzo Proietti, Alessandro Scirè et al.

Annually, at the Conference of Machine Translation (WMT), the Metrics Shared Task organizers conduct the meta-evaluation of Machine Translation (MT) metrics, ranking them according to their correlation with human judgments. Their results guide researchers toward enhancing the next generation of metrics and MT systems. With the recent introduction of neural metrics, the field has witnessed notable advancements. Nevertheless, the inherent opacity of these metrics has posed substantial challenges to the meta-evaluation process. This work highlights two issues with the meta-evaluation framework currently employed in WMT, and assesses their impact on the metrics rankings. To do this, we introduce the concept of sentinel metrics, which are designed explicitly to scrutinize the meta-evaluation process's accuracy, robustness, and fairness. By employing sentinel metrics, we aim to validate our findings, and shed light on and monitor the potential biases or inconsistencies in the rankings. We discover that the present meta-evaluation framework favors two categories of metrics: i) those explicitly trained to mimic human quality assessments, and ii) continuous metrics. Finally, we raise concerns regarding the evaluation capabilities of state-of-the-art metrics, emphasizing that they might be basing their assessments on spurious correlations found in their training data.

Imma Valentina Curato, Orkun Furat, Lorenzo Proietti et al.

Influenced mixed moving average fields are a versatile modeling class for spatio-temporal data. However, their predictive distribution is not generally known. Under this modeling assumption, we define a novel spatio-temporal embedding and a theory-guided machine learning approach that employs a generalized Bayesian algorithm to make ensemble forecasts. We use Lipschitz predictors and determine fixed-time and any-time PAC Bayesian bounds in the batch learning setting. Performing causal forecast is a highlight of our methodology as its potential application to data with spatial and temporal short and long-range dependence. We then test the performance of our learning methodology by using linear predictors and data sets simulated from a spatio-temporal Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

Leonardo Bardi, Imma Valentina Curato, Lorenzo Proietti

We employ stochastic feed-forward neural networks with Gaussian-distributed weights to determine a probabilistic forecast for spatio-temporal raster datasets. The networks are trained using MMAF-guided learning, a generalized Bayesian methodology in which the observed data are preprocessed using an embedding designed to produce a low-dimensional representation that captures their dependence and causal structure. The design of the embedding is theory-guided by the assumption that a spatio-temporal Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with finite second-order moments generates the observed data. The trained networks, in inference mode, are then used to generate ensemble forecasts by applying different initial conditions at different horizons. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real data demonstrate that our forecasts remain calibrated across multiple time horizons. Moreover, we show that on such data, simple feed-forward architectures can achieve performance comparable to, and in some cases better than, convolutional or diffusion deep learning architectures used in probabilistic forecasting tasks.

Lorenzo Proietti, Stefano Perrella, Vilém Zouhar et al.

Machine translation quality has steadily improved over the years, achieving near-perfect translations in recent benchmarks. These high-quality outputs make it difficult to distinguish between state-of-the-art models and to identify areas for future improvement. In this context, automatically identifying texts where machine translation systems struggle holds promise for developing more discriminative evaluations and guiding future research. In this work, we address this gap by formalizing the task of translation difficulty estimation, defining a text's difficulty based on the expected quality of its translations. We introduce a new metric to evaluate difficulty estimators and use it to assess both baselines and novel approaches. Finally, we demonstrate the practical utility of difficulty estimators by using them to construct more challenging benchmarks for machine translation. Our results show that dedicated models outperform both heuristic-based methods and LLM-as-a-judge approaches, with Sentinel-src achieving the best performance. Thus, we release two improved models for difficulty estimation, Sentinel-src-24 and Sentinel-src-25, which can be used to scan large collections of texts and select those most likely to challenge contemporary machine translation systems.

Lorenzo Proietti, Stefano Perrella, Roberto Navigli

In Machine Translation (MT) evaluation, metric performance is assessed based on agreement with human judgments. In recent years, automatic metrics have demonstrated increasingly high levels of agreement with humans. To gain a clearer understanding of metric performance and establish an upper bound, we incorporate human baselines in the MT meta-evaluation, that is, the assessment of MT metrics' capabilities. Our results show that human annotators are not consistently superior to automatic metrics, with state-of-the-art metrics often ranking on par with or higher than human baselines. Despite these findings suggesting human parity, we discuss several reasons for caution. Finally, we explore the broader implications of our results for the research field, asking: Can we still reliably measure improvements in MT evaluation? With this work, we aim to shed light on the limits of our ability to measure progress in the field, fostering discussion on an issue that we believe is crucial to the entire MT evaluation community.

Lorenzo Proietti, Roman Grundkiewicz, Matt Post

We present PEAR (Pairwise Evaluation for Automatic Relative Scoring), a supervised Quality Estimation (QE) metric family that reframes reference-free Machine Translation (MT) evaluation as a graded pairwise comparison. Given a source segment and two candidate translations, PEAR predicts the direction and magnitude of their quality difference. The metrics are trained using pairwise supervision derived from differences in human judgments, with an additional regularization term that encourages sign inversion under candidate order reversal. On the WMT24 meta-evaluation benchmark, PEAR outperforms strictly matched single-candidate QE baselines trained with the same data and backbones, isolating the benefit of the proposed pairwise formulation. Despite using substantially fewer parameters than recent large metrics, PEAR surpasses far larger QE models and reference-based metrics. Our analysis further indicates that PEAR yields a less redundant evaluation signal relative to other top metrics. Finally, we show that PEAR is an effective utility function for Minimum Bayes Risk (MBR) decoding, reducing pairwise scoring cost at negligible impact.

Tom Kocmi, Eleftherios Avramidis, Rachel Bawden et al. · eth-zurich, microsoft-research

We present the preliminary rankings of machine translation (MT) systems submitted to the WMT25 General Machine Translation Shared Task, as determined by automatic evaluation metrics. Because these rankings are derived from automatic evaluation, they may exhibit a bias toward systems that employ re-ranking techniques, such as Quality Estimation or Minimum Bayes Risk decoding. The official WMT25 ranking will be based on human evaluation, which is more reliable and will supersede these results. The official WMT25 ranking will be based on human evaluation, which is more reliable and will supersede these results. The purpose of releasing these findings now is to assist task participants with their system description papers; not to provide final findings.