Paul Clarke

Damian Machlanski, Spyridon Samothrakis, Paul Clarke

ML is playing an increasingly crucial role in estimating causal effects of treatments on outcomes from observational data. Many ML methods (`causal estimators') have been proposed for this task. All of these methods, as with any ML approach, require extensive hyperparameter tuning. For non-causal predictive tasks, there is a consensus on the choice of tuning metrics (e.g. mean squared error), making it simple to compare models. However, for causal inference tasks, such a consensus is yet to be reached, making any comparison of causal models difficult. On top of that, there is no ideal metric on which to tune causal estimators, so one must rely on proxies. Furthermore, the fact that model selection in causal inference involves multiple components (causal estimator, ML regressor, hyperparameters, metric), complicates the issue even further. In order to evaluate the importance of each component, we perform an extensive empirical study on their combination. Our experimental setup involves many commonly used causal estimators, regressors (`base learners' henceforth) and metrics applied to four well-known causal inference benchmark datasets. Our results show that hyperparameter tuning increased the probability of reaching state-of-the-art performance in average ($65\% {\rightarrow} 81\%$) and individualised ($50\% {\rightarrow} 57\%$) effect estimation with only commonly used estimators. We also show that the performance of standard metrics can be inconsistent across different scenarios. Our findings highlight the need for further research to establish whether metrics uniformly capable of state-of-the-art performance in causal model evaluation can be found.

Damian Machlanski, Spyridon Samothrakis, Paul Clarke

Hyperparameters play a critical role in machine learning. Hyperparameter tuning can make the difference between state-of-the-art and poor prediction performance for any algorithm, but it is particularly challenging for structure learning due to its unsupervised nature. As a result, hyperparameter tuning is often neglected in favour of using the default values provided by a particular implementation of an algorithm. While there have been numerous studies on performance evaluation of causal discovery algorithms, how hyperparameters affect individual algorithms, as well as the choice of the best algorithm for a specific problem, has not been studied in depth before. This work addresses this gap by investigating the influence of hyperparameters on causal structure learning tasks. Specifically, we perform an empirical evaluation of hyperparameter selection for some seminal learning algorithms on datasets of varying levels of complexity. We find that, while the choice of algorithm remains crucial to obtaining state-of-the-art performance, hyperparameter selection in ensemble settings strongly influences the choice of algorithm, in that a poor choice of hyperparameters can lead to analysts using algorithms which do not give state-of-the-art performance for their data.

Damian Machlanski, Spyros Samothrakis, Paul Clarke

Inferring individualised treatment effects from observational data can unlock the potential for targeted interventions. It is, however, hard to infer these effects from observational data. One major problem that can arise is covariate shift where the data (outcome) conditional distribution remains the same but the covariate (input) distribution changes between the training and test set. In an observational data setting, this problem is materialised in control and treated units coming from different distributions. A common solution is to augment learning methods through reweighing schemes (e.g. propensity scores). These are needed due to model misspecification, but might hurt performance in the individual case. In this paper, we explore a novel generative tree based approach that tackles model misspecification directly, helping downstream estimators achieve better robustness. We show empirically that the choice of model class can indeed significantly affect the final performance and that reweighing methods can struggle in individualised effect estimation. Our proposed approach is competitive with reweighing methods on average treatment effects while performing significantly better on individualised treatment effects.

Marco Kuhrmann, Paolo Tell, Regina Hebig et al.

Together with many success stories, promises such as the increase in production speed and the improvement in stakeholders' collaboration have contributed to making agile a transformation in the software industry in which many companies want to take part. However, driven either by a natural and expected evolution or by contextual factors that challenge the adoption of agile methods as prescribed by their creator(s), software processes in practice mutate into hybrids over time. Are these still agile? In this article, we investigate the question: what makes a software development method agile? We present an empirical study grounded in a large-scale international survey that aims to identify software development methods and practices that improve or tame agility. Based on 556 data points, we analyze the perceived degree of agility in the implementation of standard project disciplines and its relation to used development methods and practices. Our findings suggest that only a small number of participants operate their projects in a purely traditional or agile manner (under 15%). That said, most project disciplines and most practices show a clear trend towards increasing degrees of agility. Compared to the methods used to develop software, the selection of practices has a stronger effect on the degree of agility of a given discipline. Finally, there are no methods or practices that explicitly guarantee or prevent agility. We conclude that agility cannot be defined solely at the process level. Additional factors need to be taken into account when trying to implement or improve agility in a software company. Finally, we discuss the field of software process-related research in the light of our findings and present a roadmap for future research.