Ekaterina Gurina

Ekaterina Gurina, Nikita Klyuchnikov, Ksenia Antipova et al.

We present a data-driven and physics-informed algorithm for drilling accident forecasting. The core machine-learning algorithm uses the data from the drilling telemetry representing the time-series. We have developed a Bag-of-features representation of the time series that enables the algorithm to predict the probabilities of six types of drilling accidents in real-time. The machine-learning model is trained on the 125 past drilling accidents from 100 different Russian oil and gas wells. Validation shows that the model can forecast 70% of drilling accidents with a false positive rate equals to 40%. The model addresses partial prevention of the drilling accidents at the well construction.

Ekaterina Gurina, Nikita Klyuchnikov, Ksenia Antipova et al.

We present an approach for interpreting a black-box alarming system for forecasting accidents and anomalies during the drilling of oil and gas wells. The interpretation methodology aims to explain the local behavior of the accident predictive model to drilling engineers. The explanatory model uses Shapley additive explanations analysis of features, obtained through Bag-of-features representation of telemetry logs used during the drilling accident forecasting phase. Validation shows that the explanatory model has 15% precision at 70% recall, and overcomes the metric values of a random baseline and multi-head attention neural network. These results justify that the developed explanatory model is better aligned with explanations of drilling engineers, than the state-of-the-art method. The joint performance of explanatory and Bag-of-features models allows drilling engineers to understand the logic behind the system decisions at the particular moment, pay attention to highlighted telemetry regions, and correspondingly, increase the trust level in the accident forecasting alarms.

Ekaterina Gurina, Nikita Klyuchnikov, Alexey Zaytsev et al.

We present a data-driven algorithm and mathematical model for anomaly alarming at directional drilling. The algorithm is based on machine learning. It compares the real-time drilling telemetry with one corresponding to past accidents and analyses the level of similarity. The model performs a time-series comparison using aggregated statistics and Gradient Boosting classification. It is trained on historical data containing the drilling telemetry of $80$ wells drilled within $19$ oilfields. The model can detect an anomaly and identify its type by comparing the real-time measurements while drilling with the ones from the database of past accidents. Validation tests show that our algorithm identifies half of the anomalies with about $0.53$ false alarms per day on average. The model performance ensures sufficient time and cost savings as it enables partial prevention of the failures and accidents at the well construction.