Dmitry Koroteev

Ekaterina Gurina, Nikita Klyuchnikov, Ksenia Antipova et al.

We present a data-driven and physics-informed algorithm for drilling accident forecasting. The core machine-learning algorithm uses the data from the drilling telemetry representing the time-series. We have developed a Bag-of-features representation of the time series that enables the algorithm to predict the probabilities of six types of drilling accidents in real-time. The machine-learning model is trained on the 125 past drilling accidents from 100 different Russian oil and gas wells. Validation shows that the model can forecast 70% of drilling accidents with a false positive rate equals to 40%. The model addresses partial prevention of the drilling accidents at the well construction.

Ekaterina Gurina, Nikita Klyuchnikov, Ksenia Antipova et al.

We present an approach for interpreting a black-box alarming system for forecasting accidents and anomalies during the drilling of oil and gas wells. The interpretation methodology aims to explain the local behavior of the accident predictive model to drilling engineers. The explanatory model uses Shapley additive explanations analysis of features, obtained through Bag-of-features representation of telemetry logs used during the drilling accident forecasting phase. Validation shows that the explanatory model has 15% precision at 70% recall, and overcomes the metric values of a random baseline and multi-head attention neural network. These results justify that the developed explanatory model is better aligned with explanations of drilling engineers, than the state-of-the-art method. The joint performance of explanatory and Bag-of-features models allows drilling engineers to understand the logic behind the system decisions at the particular moment, pay attention to highlighted telemetry regions, and correspondingly, increase the trust level in the accident forecasting alarms.

Ivan Makhotin, Denis Orlov, Dmitry Koroteev et al.

Well known oil recovery factor estimation techniques such as analogy, volumetric calculations, material balance, decline curve analysis, hydrodynamic simulations have certain limitations. Those techniques are time-consuming, require specific data and expert knowledge. Besides, though uncertainty estimation is highly desirable for this problem, the methods above do not include this by default. In this work, we present a data-driven technique for oil recovery factor estimation using reservoir parameters and representative statistics. We apply advanced machine learning methods to historical worldwide oilfields datasets (more than 2000 oil reservoirs). The data-driven model might be used as a general tool for rapid and completely objective estimation of the oil recovery factor. In addition, it includes the ability to work with partial input data and to estimate the prediction interval of the oil recovery factor. We perform the evaluation in terms of accuracy and prediction intervals coverage for several tree-based machine learning techniques in application to the following two cases: (1) using parameters only related to geometry, geology, transport, storage and fluid properties, (2) using an extended set of parameters including development and production data. For both cases model proved itself to be robust and reliable. We conclude that the proposed data-driven approach overcomes several limitations of the traditional methods and is suitable for rapid, reliable and objective estimation of oil recovery factor for hydrocarbon reservoir.

Ekaterina Gurina, Nikita Klyuchnikov, Alexey Zaytsev et al.

We present a data-driven algorithm and mathematical model for anomaly alarming at directional drilling. The algorithm is based on machine learning. It compares the real-time drilling telemetry with one corresponding to past accidents and analyses the level of similarity. The model performs a time-series comparison using aggregated statistics and Gradient Boosting classification. It is trained on historical data containing the drilling telemetry of $80$ wells drilled within $19$ oilfields. The model can detect an anomaly and identify its type by comparing the real-time measurements while drilling with the ones from the database of past accidents. Validation tests show that our algorithm identifies half of the anomalies with about $0.53$ false alarms per day on average. The model performance ensures sufficient time and cost savings as it enables partial prevention of the failures and accidents at the well construction.

Evgenya Romanenkova, Alexey Zaytsev, Nikita Klyuchnikov et al.

During the directional drilling, a bit may sometimes go to a nonproductive rock layer due to the gap about 20m between the bit and high-fidelity rock type sensors. The only way to detect the lithotype changes in time is the usage of Measurements While Drilling (MWD) data. However, there are no general mathematical modeling approaches that both well reconstruct the rock type based on MWD data and correspond to specifics of the oil and gas industry. In this article, we present a data-driven procedure that utilizes MWD data for quick detection of changes in rock type. We propose the approach that combines traditional machine learning based on the solution of the rock type classification problem with change detection procedures rarely used before in the Oil\&Gas industry. The data come from a newly developed oilfield in the north of western Siberia. The results suggest that we can detect a significant part of changes in rock type reducing the change detection delay from $20$ to $1.8$ meters and the number of false-positive alarms from $43$ to $6$ per well.

Andrei Erofeev, Denis Orlov, Alexey Ryzhov et al.

The objective of this work is to study the applicability of various Machine Learning algorithms for prediction of some rock properties which geoscientists usually define due to special lab analysis. We demonstrate that these special properties can be predicted only basing on routine core analysis (RCA) data. To validate the approach core samples from the reservoir with soluble rock matrix components (salts) were tested within 100+ laboratory experiments. The challenge of the experiments was to characterize the rate of salts in cores and alteration of porosity and permeability after reservoir desalination due to drilling mud or water injection. For these three measured characteristics, we developed the relevant predictive models, which were based on the results of RCA and data on coring depth and top and bottom depths of productive horizons. To select the most accurate Machine Learning algorithm a comparative analysis has been performed. It was shown that different algorithms work better in different models. However, two hidden layers Neural network has demonstrated the best predictive ability and generalizability for all three rock characteristics jointly. The other algorithms, such as Support Vector Machine and Linear Regression, also worked well on the dataset, but in particular cases. Overall, the applied approach allows predicting the alteration of porosity and permeability during desalination in porous rocks and also evaluating salt concentration without direct measurements in a laboratory. This work also shows that developed approaches could be applied for prediction of other rock properties (residual brine and oil saturations, relative permeability, capillary pressure, and others), which laboratory measurements are time-consuming and expensive.

Ivan Makhotin, Dmitry Koroteev, Evgeny Burnaev

In this paper, we present a data-driven model for forecasting the production increase after hydraulic fracturing (HF). We use data from fracturing jobs performed at one of the Siberian oilfields. The data includes features, characterizing the jobs, and geological information. To predict an oil rate after the fracturing machine learning (ML) technique was applied. We compared the ML-based prediction to a prediction based on the experience of reservoir and production engineers responsible for the HF-job planning. We discuss the potential for further development of ML techniques for predicting changes in oil rate after HF.

Denis Volkhonskiy, Ekaterina Muravleva, Oleg Sudakov et al.

In many branches of earth sciences, the problem of rock study on the micro-level arises. However, a significant number of representative samples is not always feasible. Thus the problem of the generation of samples with similar properties becomes actual. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning architecture for three-dimensional porous media reconstruction from two-dimensional slices. We fit a distribution on all possible three-dimensional structures of a specific type based on the given dataset of samples. Then, given partial information (central slices), we recover the three-dimensional structure around such slices as the most probable one according to that constructed distribution. Technically, we implement this in the form of a deep neural network with encoder, generator and discriminator modules. Numerical experiments show that this method provides a good reconstruction in terms of Minkowski functionals.

Pavel Temirchev, Maxim Simonov, Ruslan Kostoev et al.

We present a novel technique for assessing the dynamics of multiphase fluid flow in the oil reservoir. We demonstrate an efficient workflow for handling the 3D reservoir simulation data in a way which is orders of magnitude faster than the conventional routine. The workflow (we call it "Metamodel") is based on a projection of the system dynamics into a latent variable space, using Variational Autoencoder model, where Recurrent Neural Network predicts the dynamics. We show that being trained on multiple results of the conventional reservoir modelling, the Metamodel does not compromise the accuracy of the reservoir dynamics reconstruction in a significant way. It allows forecasting not only the flow rates from the wells, but also the dynamics of pressure and fluid saturations within the reservoir. The results open a new perspective in the optimization of oilfield development as the scenario screening could be accelerated sufficiently.

Nikita Klyuchnikov, Alexey Zaytsev, Arseniy Gruzdev et al.

Directional oil well drilling requires high precision of the wellbore positioning inside the productive area. However, due to specifics of engineering design, sensors that explicitly determine the type of the drilled rock are located farther than 15m from the drilling bit. As a result, the target area runaways can be detected only after this distance, which in turn, leads to a loss in well productivity and the risk of the need for an expensive re-boring operation. We present a novel approach for identifying rock type at the drilling bit based on machine learning classification methods and data mining on sensors readings. We compare various machine-learning algorithms, examine extra features coming from mathematical modeling of drilling mechanics, and show that the real-time rock type classification error can be reduced from 13.5 % to 9 %. The approach is applicable for precise directional drilling in relatively thin target intervals of complex shapes and generalizes appropriately to new wells that are different from the ones used for training the machine learning model.

Oleg Sudakov, Evgeny Burnaev, Dmitry Koroteev

We present a research study aimed at testing of applicability of machine learning techniques for prediction of permeability of digitized rock samples. We prepare a training set containing 3D images of sandstone samples imaged with X-ray microtomography and corresponding permeability values simulated with Pore Network approach. We also use Minkowski functionals and Deep Learning-based descriptors of 3D images and 2D slices as input features for predictive model training and prediction. We compare predictive power of various feature sets and methods. The later include Gradient Boosting and various architectures of Deep Neural Networks (DNN). The results demonstrate applicability of machine learning for image-based permeability prediction and open a new area of Digital Rock research.