Grace Deng

Grace Deng, David S. Matteson

We present Bayesian Spillover Graphs (BSG), a novel method for learning temporal relationships, identifying critical nodes, and quantifying uncertainty for multi-horizon spillover effects in a dynamic system. BSG leverages both an interpretable framework via forecast error variance decompositions (FEVD) and comprehensive uncertainty quantification via Bayesian time series models to contextualize temporal relationships in terms of systemic risk and prediction variability. Forecast horizon hyperparameter $h$ allows for learning both short-term and equilibrium state network behaviors. Experiments for identifying source and sink nodes under various graph and error specifications show significant performance gains against state-of-the-art Bayesian Networks and deep-learning baselines. Applications to real-world systems also showcase BSG as an exploratory analysis tool for uncovering indirect spillovers and quantifying systemic risk.

Grace Deng, Cuize Han, Tommaso Dreossi et al.

Classification of large multivariate time series with strong class imbalance is an important task in real-world applications. Standard methods of class weights, oversampling, or parametric data augmentation do not always yield significant improvements for predicting minority classes of interest. Non-parametric data augmentation with Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) offers a promising solution. We propose Imputation Balanced GAN (IB-GAN), a novel method that joins data augmentation and classification in a one-step process via an imputation-balancing approach. IB-GAN uses imputation and resampling techniques to generate higher quality samples from randomly masked vectors than from white noise, and augments classification through a class-balanced set of real and synthetic samples. Imputation hyperparameter $p_{miss}$ allows for regularization of classifier variability by tuning innovations introduced via generator imputation. IB-GAN is simple to train and model-agnostic, pairing any deep learning classifier with a generator-discriminator duo and resulting in higher accuracy for under-observed classes. Empirical experiments on open-source UCR data and proprietary 90K product dataset show significant performance gains against state-of-the-art parametric and GAN baselines.

Grace Deng, Cuize Han, David S. Matteson

We propose Conditional Imputation GAN, an extended missing data imputation method based on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). The motivating use case is learning-to-rank, the cornerstone of modern search, recommendation system, and information retrieval applications. Empirical ranking datasets do not always follow standard Gaussian distributions or Missing Completely At Random (MCAR) mechanism, which are standard assumptions of classic missing data imputation methods. Our methodology provides a simple solution that offers compatible imputation guarantees while relaxing assumptions for missing mechanisms and sidesteps approximating intractable distributions to improve imputation quality. We prove that the optimal GAN imputation is achieved for Extended Missing At Random (EMAR) and Extended Always Missing At Random (EAMAR) mechanisms, beyond the naive MCAR. Our method demonstrates the highest imputation quality on the open-source Microsoft Research Ranking (MSR) Dataset and a synthetic ranking dataset compared to state-of-the-art benchmarks and across various feature distributions. Using a proprietary Amazon Search ranking dataset, we also demonstrate comparable ranking quality metrics for ranking models trained on GAN-imputed data compared to ground-truth data.