Nenad Mijatovic

Alexandre Trilla, Ossee Yiboe, Nenad Mijatovic et al.

This paper describes the development of a causal diagnosis approach for troubleshooting an industrial environment on the basis of the technical language expressed in Return on Experience records. The proposed method leverages the vectorized linguistic knowledge contained in the distributed representation of a Large Language Model, and the causal associations entailed by the embedded failure modes and mechanisms of the industrial assets. The paper presents the elementary but essential concepts of the solution, which is conceived as a causality-aware retrieval augmented generation system, and illustrates them experimentally on a real-world Predictive Maintenance setting. Finally, it discusses avenues of improvement for the maturity of the utilized causal technology to meet the robustness challenges of increasingly complex scenarios in the industry.

Alexandre Trilla, Nenad Mijatovic

A fundamental task in science is to determine the underlying causal relations because it is the knowledge of this functional structure what leads to the correct interpretation of an effect given the apparent associations in the observed data. In this sense, Causal Discovery is a technique that tackles this challenge by analyzing the statistical properties of the constituent variables. In this work, we target the generalizability of the discovery method by following a reductionist approach that only involves two variables, i.e., the pairwise or bi-variate setting. We question the current (possibly misleading) baseline results on the basis that they were obtained through supervised learning, which is arguably contrary to this genuinely exploratory endeavor. In consequence, we approach this problem in an unsupervised way, using robust Mutual Information measures, and observing the impact of the different variable types, which is oftentimes ignored in the design of solutions. Thus, we provide a novel set of standard unbiased results that can serve as a reference to guide future discovery tasks in completely unknown environments.

Alexandre Trilla, Rajesh Rajendran, Ossee Yiboe et al.

This paper describes the development of a counterfactual Root Cause Analysis diagnosis approach for an industrial multivariate time series environment. It drives the attention toward the Point of Incipient Failure, which is the moment in time when the anomalous behavior is first observed, and where the root cause is assumed to be found before the issue propagates. The paper presents the elementary but essential concepts of the solution and illustrates them experimentally on a simulated setting. Finally, it discusses avenues of improvement for the maturity of the causal technology to meet the robustness challenges of increasingly complex environments in the industry.

Pere Izquierdo Gomez, Miguel E. Lopez Gajardo, Nenad Mijatovic et al.

Ensuring the reliability of power electronic converters is a matter of great importance, and data-driven condition monitoring techniques are cementing themselves as an important tool for this purpose. However, translating methods that work well in controlled lab environments to field applications presents significant challenges, notably because of the limited diversity and accuracy of the lab training data. By enabling the use of field data, online machine learning can be a powerful tool to overcome this problem, but it introduces additional challenges in ensuring the stability and predictability of the training processes. This work presents an edge computing method that mitigates these shortcomings with minimal additional memory usage, by employing an autonomous algorithm that prioritizes the storage of training samples with larger prediction errors. The method is demonstrated on the use case of a self-commissioning condition monitoring system, in the form of a thermal anomaly detection scheme for a variable frequency motor drive, where the algorithm self-learned to distinguish normal and anomalous operation with minimal prior knowledge. The obtained results, based on experimental data, show a significant improvement in prediction accuracy and training speed, when compared to equivalent models trained online without the proposed data selection process.

Debdeep Mukherjee, Eduardo Di Santi, Clément Lefebvre et al.

Track circuits are critical for railway operations, acting as the main signalling sub-system to locate trains. Continuous Variable Current Modulation (CVCM) is one such technology. Like any field-deployed, safety-critical asset, it can fail, triggering cascading disruptions. Many failures originate as subtle anomalies that evolve over time, often not visually apparent in monitored signals. Conventional approaches, which rely on clear signal changes, struggle to detect them early. Early identification of failure types is essential to improve maintenance planning, minimising downtime and revenue loss. Leveraging deep neural networks, we propose a predictive maintenance framework that classifies anomalies well before they escalate into failures. Validated on 10 CVCM failure cases across different installations, the method is ISO-17359 compliant and outperforms conventional techniques, achieving 99.31% overall accuracy with detection within 1% of anomaly onset. Through conformal prediction, we provide uncertainty estimates, reaching 99% confidence with consistent coverage across classes. Given CVCMs global deployment, the approach is scalable and adaptable to other track circuits and railway systems, enhancing operational reliability.

Francisco López, Eduardo Di Santi, Clément Lefebvre et al.

Track Circuits (TC) are the main signalling devices used to detect the presence of a train on a rail track. It has been used since the 19th century and nowadays there are many types depending on the technology. As a general classification, Track Circuits can be divided into 2 main groups, DC (Direct Current) and AC (Alternating Current) circuits. This work is focused on a particular AC track circuit, called "Smart Train Detection System" (STDS), designed with both high and low-frequency bands. This approach uses STDS current data applied to an SVM (support vector machine) classifier as a type of failure identifier. The main purpose of this work consists on determine automatically which is the component of the track that is failing to improve the maintenance action. Model was trained to classify 15 different failures that belong to 3 more general categories. The method was tested with field data from 10 different track circuits and validated by the STDS track circuit expert and maintainers. All use cases were correctly classified by the method.

Eduardo Di Santi, Ruixiang Ci, Clément Lefebvre et al.

The Point Machine (PM) is a critical piece of railway equipment that switches train routes by diverting tracks through a switchblade. As with any critical safety equipment, a failure will halt operations leading to service disruptions; therefore, pre-emptive maintenance may avoid unnecessary interruptions by detecting anomalies before they become failures. Previous work relies on several inputs and crafting custom features by segmenting the signal. This not only adds additional requirements for data collection and processing, but it is also specific to the PM technology, the installed locations and operational conditions limiting scalability. Based on the available maintenance records, the main failure causes for PM are obstacles, friction, power source issues and misalignment. Those failures affect the energy consumption pattern of PMs, altering the usual (or healthy) shape of the power signal during the PM movement. In contrast to the current state-of-the-art, our method requires only one input. We apply a deep learning model to the power signal pattern to classify if the PM is nominal or associated with any failure type, achieving >99.99\% precision, <0.01\% false positives and negligible false negatives. Our methodology is generic and technology-agnostic, proven to be scalable on several electromechanical PM types deployed in both real-world and test bench environments. Finally, by using conformal prediction the maintainer gets a clear indication of the certainty of the system outputs, adding a confidence layer to operations and making the method compliant with the ISO-17359 standard.