M. Girolami

L. A. Bull, D. Di Francesco, M. Dhada et al.

A population-level analysis is proposed to address data sparsity when building predictive models for engineering infrastructure. Utilising an interpretable hierarchical Bayesian approach and operational fleet data, domain expertise is naturally encoded (and appropriately shared) between different sub-groups, representing (i) use-type, (ii) component, or (iii) operating condition. Specifically, domain expertise is exploited to constrain the model via assumptions (and prior distributions) allowing the methodology to automatically share information between similar assets, improving the survival analysis of a truck fleet and power prediction in a wind farm. In each asset management example, a set of correlated functions is learnt over the fleet, in a combined inference, to learn a population model. Parameter estimation is improved when sub-fleets share correlated information at different levels of the hierarchy. In turn, groups with incomplete data automatically borrow statistical strength from those that are data-rich. The statistical correlations enable knowledge transfer via Bayesian transfer learning, and the correlations can be inspected to inform which assets share information for which effect (i.e. parameter). Both case studies demonstrate the wide applicability to practical infrastructure monitoring, since the approach is naturally adapted between interpretable fleet models of different in situ examples.

B. Boys, T. J. Dodwell, M. Hobbs et al.

This paper presents a lightweight, open-source and high-performance python package for solving peridynamics problems in solid mechanics. The development of this solver is motivated by the need for fast analysis tools to achieve the large number of simulations required for `outer-loop' applications, including sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification and optimisation. Our python software toolbox utilises the heterogeneous nature of OpenCL so that it can be executed on any platform with CPU or GPU cores. We illustrate the package use through a range of industrially motivated examples, which should enable other researchers to build on and extend the solver for use in their own applications. Step improvements in execution speed and functionality over existing techniques are presented. A comparison between this solver and an existing OpenCL implementation in the literature is presented, tested on benchmarks with hundreds of thousands to tens of millions of nodes. We demonstrate the scalability of the solver on the GeForce RTX 2080 TiGPU from NVIDIA, and the memory-bound limitations are analysed. In all test cases, the implementation is between 1.4 and 10.0 times faster than a similar existing GPU implementation in the literature. In particular, this improvement has been achieved by utilising local memory on the GPU.