Dimitri Bouche

Dimitri Bouche, Rémi Flamary, Florence d'Alché-Buc et al.

We study short-term prediction of wind speed and wind power (every 10 minutes up to 4 hours ahead). Accurate forecasts for these quantities are crucial to mitigate the negative effects of wind farms' intermittent production on energy systems and markets. We use machine learning to combine outputs from numerical weather prediction models with local observations. The former provide valuable information on higher scales dynamics while the latter gives the model fresher and location-specific data. So as to make the results usable for practitioners, we focus on well-known methods which can handle a high volume of data. We study first variable selection using both a linear technique and a nonlinear one. Then we exploit these results to forecast wind speed and wind power still with an emphasis on linear models versus nonlinear ones. For the wind power prediction, we also compare the indirect approach (wind speed predictions passed through a power curve) and the indirect one (directly predict wind power).

Alex Lambert, Dimitri Bouche, Zoltan Szabo et al.

The focus of the paper is functional output regression (FOR) with convoluted losses. While most existing work consider the square loss setting, we leverage extensions of the Huber and the $ε$-insensitive loss (induced by infimal convolution) and propose a flexible framework capable of handling various forms of outliers and sparsity in the FOR family. We derive computationally tractable algorithms relying on duality to tackle the resulting tasks in the context of vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. The efficiency of the approach is demonstrated and contrasted with the classical squared loss setting on both synthetic and real-world benchmarks.

Dimitri Bouche, Marianne Clausel, François Roueff et al.

To address functional-output regression, we introduce projection learning (PL), a novel dictionary-based approach that learns to predict a function that is expanded on a dictionary while minimizing an empirical risk based on a functional loss. PL makes it possible to use non orthogonal dictionaries and can then be combined with dictionary learning; it is thus much more flexible than expansion-based approaches relying on vectorial losses. This general method is instantiated with reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces of vector-valued functions as kernel-based projection learning (KPL). For the functional square loss, two closed-form estimators are proposed, one for fully observed output functions and the other for partially observed ones. Both are backed theoretically by an excess risk analysis. Then, in the more general setting of integral losses based on differentiable ground losses, KPL is implemented using first-order optimization for both fully and partially observed output functions. Eventually, several robustness aspects of the proposed algorithms are highlighted on a toy dataset; and a study on two real datasets shows that they are competitive compared to other nonlinear approaches. Notably, using the square loss and a learnt dictionary, KPL enjoys a particularily attractive trade-off between computational cost and performances.