Sylvain Arlot

Binh T. Nguyen, Bertrand Thirion, Sylvain Arlot

Identifying the relevant variables for a classification model with correct confidence levels is a central but difficult task in high-dimension. Despite the core role of sparse logistic regression in statistics and machine learning, it still lacks a good solution for accurate inference in the regime where the number of features $p$ is as large as or larger than the number of samples $n$. Here, we tackle this problem by improving the Conditional Randomization Test (CRT). The original CRT algorithm shows promise as a way to output p-values while making few assumptions on the distribution of the test statistics. As it comes with a prohibitive computational cost even in mildly high-dimensional problems, faster solutions based on distillation have been proposed. Yet, they rely on unrealistic hypotheses and result in low-power solutions. To improve this, we propose \emph{CRT-logit}, an algorithm that combines a variable-distillation step and a decorrelation step that takes into account the geometry of $\ell_1$-penalized logistic regression problem. We provide a theoretical analysis of this procedure, and demonstrate its effectiveness on simulations, along with experiments on large-scale brain-imaging and genomics datasets.

El Mehdi Saad, Gilles Blanchard, Sylvain Arlot

Greedy algorithms for feature selection are widely used for recovering sparse high-dimensional vectors in linear models. In classical procedures, the main emphasis was put on the sample complexity, with little or no consideration of the computation resources required. We present a novel online algorithm: Online Orthogonal Matching Pursuit (OOMP) for online support recovery in the random design setting of sparse linear regression. Our procedure selects features sequentially, alternating between allocation of samples only as needed to candidate features, and optimization over the selected set of variables to estimate the regression coefficients. Theoretical guarantees about the output of this algorithm are proven and its computational complexity is analysed.

Tuan-Binh Nguyen, Jérôme-Alexis Chevalier, Bertrand Thirion et al.

We develop an extension of the Knockoff Inference procedure, introduced by Barber and Candes (2015). This new method, called Aggregation of Multiple Knockoffs (AKO), addresses the instability inherent to the random nature of Knockoff-based inference. Specifically, AKO improves both the stability and power compared with the original Knockoff algorithm while still maintaining guarantees for False Discovery Rate control. We provide a new inference procedure, prove its core properties, and demonstrate its benefits in a set of experiments on synthetic and real datasets.

Sylvain Arlot

This text is the rejoinder following the discussion of a survey paper about minimal penalties and the slope heuristics (Arlot, 2019. Minimal penalties and the slope heuristics: a survey. Journal de la SFDS). While commenting on the remarks made by the discussants, it provides two new results about the slope heuristics for model selection among a collection of projection estimators in least-squares fixed-design regression. First, we prove that the slope heuristics works even when all models are significantly biased. Second, when the noise is Gaussian with a general dependence structure, we compute expectations of key quantities, showing that the slope heuristics certainly is valid in this setting also.

Guillaume Maillard, Sylvain Arlot, Matthieu Lerasle

Aggregated hold-out (Agghoo) is a method which averages learning rules selected by hold-out (that is, cross-validation with a single split). We provide the first theoretical guarantees on Agghoo, ensuring that it can be used safely: Agghoo performs at worst like the hold-out when the risk is convex. The same holds true in classification with the 0-1 risk, with an additional constant factor. For the hold-out, oracle inequalities are known for bounded losses, as in binary classification. We show that similar results can be proved, under appropriate assumptions, for other risk-minimization problems. In particular, we obtain an oracle inequality for regularized kernel regression with a Lip-schitz loss, without requiring that the Y variable or the regressors be bounded. Numerical experiments show that aggregation brings a significant improvement over the hold-out and that Agghoo is competitive with cross-validation.

Sylvain Arlot

Birg{é} and Massart proposed in 2001 the slope heuristics as a way to choose optimally from data an unknown multiplicative constant in front of a penalty. It is built upon the notion of minimal penalty, and it has been generalized since to some "minimal-penalty algorithms". This paper reviews the theoretical results obtained for such algorithms, with a self-contained proof in the simplest framework, precise proof ideas for further generalizations, and a few new results. Explicit connections are made with residual-variance estimators-with an original contribution on this topic, showing that for this task the slope heuristics performs almost as well as a residual-based estimator with the best model choice-and some classical algorithms such as L-curve or elbow heuristics, Mallows' C p , and Akaike's FPE. Practical issues are also addressed, including two new practical definitions of minimal-penalty algorithms that are compared on synthetic data to previously-proposed definitions. Finally, several conjectures and open problems are suggested as future research directions.

Sylvain Arlot

This text is a survey on cross-validation. We define all classical cross-validation procedures, and we study their properties for two different goals: estimating the risk of a given estimator, and selecting the best estimator among a given family. For the risk estimation problem, we compute the bias (which can also be corrected) and the variance of cross-validation methods. For estimator selection, we first provide a first-order analysis (based on expectations). Then, we explain how to take into account second-order terms (from variance computations, and by taking into account the usefulness of overpenalization). This allows, in the end, to provide some guidelines for choosing the best cross-validation method for a given learning problem.

Sylvain Arlot, Robin Genuer

This paper is a comment on the survey paper by Biau and Scornet (2016) about random forests. We focus on the problem of quantifying the impact of each ingredient of random forests on their performance. We show that such a quantification is possible for a simple pure forest , leading to conclusions that could apply more generally. Then, we consider "hold-out" random forests, which are a good middle point between "toy" pure forests and Breiman's original random forests.

Rémi Lajugie, Piotr Bojanowski, Sylvain Arlot et al.

In this paper, we address the problem of multi-label classification. We consider linear classifiers and propose to learn a prior over the space of labels to directly leverage the performance of such methods. This prior takes the form of a quadratic function of the labels and permits to encode both attractive and repulsive relations between labels. We cast this problem as a structured prediction one aiming at optimizing either the accuracies of the predictors or the F 1-score. This leads to an optimization problem closely related to the max-cut problem, which naturally leads to semidefinite and spectral relaxations. We show on standard datasets how such a general prior can improve the performances of multi-label techniques.

Damien Garreau, Rémi Lajugie, Sylvain Arlot et al.

In this paper, we propose to learn a Mahalanobis distance to perform alignment of multivariate time series. The learning examples for this task are time series for which the true alignment is known. We cast the alignment problem as a structured prediction task, and propose realistic losses between alignments for which the optimization is tractable. We provide experiments on real data in the audio to audio context, where we show that the learning of a similarity measure leads to improvements in the performance of the alignment task. We also propose to use this metric learning framework to perform feature selection and, from basic audio features, build a combination of these with better performance for the alignment.

Sylvain Arlot, Robin Genuer

Random forests are a very effective and commonly used statistical method, but their full theoretical analysis is still an open problem. As a first step, simplified models such as purely random forests have been introduced, in order to shed light on the good performance of random forests. In this paper, we study the approximation error (the bias) of some purely random forest models in a regression framework, focusing in particular on the influence of the number of trees in the forest. Under some regularity assumptions on the regression function, we show that the bias of an infinite forest decreases at a faster rate (with respect to the size of each tree) than a single tree. As a consequence, infinite forests attain a strictly better risk rate (with respect to the sample size) than single trees. Furthermore, our results allow to derive a minimum number of trees sufficient to reach the same rate as an infinite forest. As a by-product of our analysis, we also show a link between the bias of purely random forests and the bias of some kernel estimators.

Rémi Lajugie, Sylvain Arlot, Francis Bach

In this paper, we consider unsupervised partitioning problems, such as clustering, image segmentation, video segmentation and other change-point detection problems. We focus on partitioning problems based explicitly or implicitly on the minimization of Euclidean distortions, which include mean-based change-point detection, K-means, spectral clustering and normalized cuts. Our main goal is to learn a Mahalanobis metric for these unsupervised problems, leading to feature weighting and/or selection. This is done in a supervised way by assuming the availability of several potentially partially labelled datasets that share the same metric. We cast the metric learning problem as a large-margin structured prediction problem, with proper definition of regularizers and losses, leading to a convex optimization problem which can be solved efficiently with iterative techniques. We provide experiments where we show how learning the metric may significantly improve the partitioning performance in synthetic examples, bioinformatics, video segmentation and image segmentation problems.

Sylvain Arlot, Matthieu Lerasle

This paper studies V-fold cross-validation for model selection in least-squares density estimation. The goal is to provide theoretical grounds for choosing V in order to minimize the least-squares loss of the selected estimator. We first prove a non-asymptotic oracle inequality for V-fold cross-validation and its bias-corrected version (V-fold penalization). In particular, this result implies that V-fold penalization is asymptotically optimal in the nonparametric case. Then, we compute the variance of V-fold cross-validation and related criteria, as well as the variance of key quantities for model selection performance. We show that these variances depend on V like 1+4/(V-1), at least in some particular cases, suggesting that the performance increases much from V=2 to V=5 or 10, and then is almost constant. Overall, this can explain the common advice to take V=5---at least in our setting and when the computational power is limited---, as supported by some simulation experiments. An oracle inequality and exact formulas for the variance are also proved for Monte-Carlo cross-validation, also known as repeated cross-validation, where the parameter V is replaced by the number B of random splits of the data.