Jeffrey A. Newman

Mehdi Rezaie, Ashley J. Ross, Hee-Jong Seo et al.

We use angular clustering of luminous red galaxies from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) imaging surveys to constrain the local primordial non-Gaussianity parameter $\fnl$. Our sample comprises over 12 million targets, covering 14,000 square degrees of the sky, with redshifts in the range $0.2< z < 1.35$. We identify Galactic extinction, survey depth, and astronomical seeing as the primary sources of systematic error, and employ linear regression and artificial neural networks to alleviate non-cosmological excess clustering on large scales. Our methods are tested against simulations with and without $\fnl$ and systematics, showing superior performance of the neural network treatment. The neural network with a set of nine imaging property maps passes our systematic null test criteria, and is chosen as the fiducial treatment. Assuming the universality relation, we find $\fnl = 34^{+24(+50)}_{-44(-73)}$ at 68\%(95\%) confidence. We apply a series of robustness tests (e.g., cuts on imaging, declination, or scales used) that show consistency in the obtained constraints. We study how the regression method biases the measured angular power-spectrum and degrades the $\fnl$ constraining power. The use of the nine maps more than doubles the uncertainty compared to using only the three primary maps in the regression. Our results thus motivate the development of more efficient methods that avoid over-correction, protect large-scale clustering information, and preserve constraining power. Additionally, our results encourage further studies of $\fnl$ with DESI spectroscopic samples, where the inclusion of 3D clustering modes should help separate imaging systematics and lessen the degradation in the $\fnl$ uncertainty.

Biprateep Dey, David Zhao, Brett H. Andrews et al.

Key science questions, such as galaxy distance estimation and weather forecasting, often require knowing the full predictive distribution of a target variable $y$ given complex inputs $\mathbf{x}$. Despite recent advances in machine learning and physics-based models, it remains challenging to assess whether an initial model is calibrated for all $\mathbf{x}$, and when needed, to reshape the densities of $y$ toward "instance-wise" calibration. This paper introduces the LADaR (Local Amortized Diagnostics and Reshaping of Conditional Densities) framework and proposes a new computationally efficient algorithm ($\texttt{Cal-PIT}$) that produces interpretable local diagnostics and provides a mechanism for adjusting conditional density estimates (CDEs). $\texttt{Cal-PIT}$ learns a single interpretable local probability--probability map from calibration data that identifies where and how the initial model is miscalibrated across feature space, which can be used to morph CDEs such that they are well-calibrated. We illustrate the LADaR framework on synthetic examples, including probabilistic forecasting from image sequences, akin to predicting storm wind speed from satellite imagery. Our main science application involves estimating the probability density functions of galaxy distances given photometric data, where $\texttt{Cal-PIT}$ achieves better instance-wise calibration than all 11 other literature methods in a benchmark data challenge, demonstrating its utility for next-generation cosmological analyses.

Biprateep Dey, Jeffrey A. Newman, Brett H. Andrews et al.

Many astrophysical analyses depend on estimates of redshifts (a proxy for distance) determined from photometric (i.e., imaging) data alone. Inaccurate estimates of photometric redshift uncertainties can result in large systematic errors. However, probability distribution outputs from many photometric redshift methods do not follow the frequentist definition of a Probability Density Function (PDF) for redshift -- i.e., the fraction of times the true redshift falls between two limits $z_{1}$ and $z_{2}$ should be equal to the integral of the PDF between these limits. Previous works have used the global distribution of Probability Integral Transform (PIT) values to re-calibrate PDFs, but offsetting inaccuracies in different regions of feature space can conspire to limit the efficacy of the method. We leverage a recently developed regression technique that characterizes the local PIT distribution at any location in feature space to perform a local re-calibration of photometric redshift PDFs. Though we focus on an example from astrophysics, our method can produce PDFs which are calibrated at all locations in feature space for any use case.