Yushu Chen

Haoyu Ma, Yushu Chen, Wenlai Zhao et al. · tsinghua

Time series foundation models have demonstrated strong performance in zero-shot learning, making them well-suited for predicting rapidly evolving patterns in real-world applications where relevant training data are scarce. However, most of these models rely on the Transformer architecture, which incurs quadratic complexity as input length increases. To address this, we introduce TSMamba, a linear-complexity foundation model for time series forecasting built on the Mamba architecture. The model captures temporal dependencies through both forward and backward Mamba encoders, achieving high prediction accuracy. To reduce reliance on large datasets and lower training costs, TSMamba employs a two-stage transfer learning process that leverages pretrained Mamba LLMs, allowing effective time series modeling with a moderate training set. In the first stage, the forward and backward backbones are optimized via patch-wise autoregressive prediction; in the second stage, the model trains a prediction head and refines other components for long-term forecasting. While the backbone assumes channel independence to manage varying channel numbers across datasets, a channel-wise compressed attention module is introduced to capture cross-channel dependencies during fine-tuning on specific multivariate datasets. Experiments show that TSMamba's zero-shot performance is comparable to state-of-the-art time series foundation models, despite using significantly less training data. It also achieves competitive or superior full-shot performance compared to task-specific prediction models. The code will be made publicly available.

Yushu Chen, Shengzhuo Liu, Jinzhe Yang et al.

In order to enhance the performance of Transformer models for long-term multivariate forecasting while minimizing computational demands, this paper introduces the Joint Time-Frequency Domain Transformer (JTFT). JTFT combines time and frequency domain representations to make predictions. The frequency domain representation efficiently extracts multi-scale dependencies while maintaining sparsity by utilizing a small number of learnable frequencies. Simultaneously, the time domain (TD) representation is derived from a fixed number of the most recent data points, strengthening the modeling of local relationships and mitigating the effects of non-stationarity. Importantly, the length of the representation remains independent of the input sequence length, enabling JTFT to achieve linear computational complexity. Furthermore, a low-rank attention layer is proposed to efficiently capture cross-dimensional dependencies, thus preventing performance degradation resulting from the entanglement of temporal and channel-wise modeling. Experimental results on six real-world datasets demonstrate that JTFT outperforms state-of-the-art baselines in predictive performance.

Yushu Chen, Hao Jing, Wenlai Zhao et al.

We present the remote stochastic gradient (RSG) method, which computes the gradients at configurable remote observation points, in order to improve the convergence rate and suppress gradient noise at the same time for different curvatures. RSG is further combined with adaptive methods to construct ARSG for acceleration. The method is efficient in computation and memory, and is straightforward to implement. We analyze the convergence properties by modeling the training process as a dynamic system, which provides a guideline to select the configurable observation factor without grid search. ARSG yields $O(1/\sqrt{T})$ convergence rate in non-convex settings, that can be further improved to $O(\log(T)/T)$ in strongly convex settings. Numerical experiments demonstrate that ARSG achieves both faster convergence and better generalization, compared with popular adaptive methods, such as ADAM, NADAM, AMSGRAD, and RANGER for the tested problems. In particular, for training ResNet-50 on ImageNet, ARSG outperforms ADAM in convergence speed and meanwhile it surpasses SGD in generalization.