Wolfgang Hübner

Ronny Hug, Stefan Becker, Wolfgang Hübner et al.

An appropriate data basis grants one of the most important aspects for training and evaluating probabilistic trajectory prediction models based on neural networks. In this regard, a common shortcoming of current benchmark datasets is their limitation to sets of sample trajectories and a lack of actual ground truth distributions, which prevents the use of more expressive error metrics, such as the Wasserstein distance for model evaluation. Towards this end, this paper proposes a novel approach to synthetic dataset generation based on composite probabilistic Bézier curves, which is capable of generating ground truth data in terms of probability distributions over full trajectories. This allows the calculation of arbitrary posterior distributions. The paper showcases an exemplary trajectory prediction model evaluation using generated ground truth distribution data.

Ronny Hug, Stefan Becker, Wolfgang Hübner et al.

The analysis and quantification of sequence complexity is an open problem frequently encountered when defining trajectory prediction benchmarks. In order to enable a more informative assembly of a data basis, an approach for determining a dataset representation in terms of a small set of distinguishable prototypical sub-sequences is proposed. The approach employs a sequence alignment followed by a learning vector quantization (LVQ) stage. A first proof of concept on synthetically generated and real-world datasets shows the viability of the approach.

Ronny Hug, Wolfgang Hübner, Michael Arens

Representations of sequential data are commonly based on the assumption that observed sequences are realizations of an unknown underlying stochastic process, where the learning problem includes determination of the model parameters. In this context the model must be able to capture the multi-modal nature of the data, without blurring between modes. This property is essential for applications like trajectory prediction or human motion modeling. Towards this end, a neural network model for continuous-time stochastic processes usable for sequence prediction is proposed. The model is based on Mixture Density Networks using Bézier curves with Gaussian random variables as control points (abbrev.: $\mathcal{N}$-Curves). Key advantages of the model include the ability of generating smooth multi-mode predictions in a single inference step which reduces the need for Monte Carlo simulation, as required in many multi-step prediction models, based on state-of-the-art neural networks. Essential properties of the proposed approach are illustrated by several toy examples and the task of multi-step sequence prediction. Further, the model performance is evaluated on two real world use-cases, i.e. human trajectory prediction and human motion modeling, outperforming different state-of-the-art models.

Stefan Becker, Ronny Hug, Wolfgang Hübner et al.

The problem of varying dynamics of tracked objects, such as pedestrians, is traditionally tackled with approaches like the Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) filter using a Bayesian formulation. By following the current trend towards using deep neural networks, in this paper an RNN-based IMM filter surrogate is presented. Similar to an IMM filter solution, the presented RNN-based model assigns a probability value to a performed dynamic and, based on them, puts out a multi-modal distribution over future pedestrian trajectories. The evaluation is done on synthetic data, reflecting prototypical pedestrian maneuvers.

Stefan Becker, Ronny Hug, Wolfgang Hübner et al.

In recent years, there is a shift from modeling the tracking problem based on Bayesian formulation towards using deep neural networks. Towards this end, in this paper the effectiveness of various deep neural networks for predicting future pedestrian paths are evaluated. The analyzed deep networks solely rely, like in the traditional approaches, on observed tracklets without human-human interaction information. The evaluation is done on the publicly available TrajNet benchmark dataset, which builds up a repository of considerable and popular datasets for trajectory-based activity forecasting. We show that a Recurrent-Encoder with a Dense layer stacked on top, referred to as RED-predictor, is able to achieve sophisticated results compared to elaborated models in such scenarios. Further, we investigate failure cases and give explanations for observed phenomena and give some recommendations for overcoming demonstrated shortcomings.

Ronny Hug, Stefan Becker, Wolfgang Hübner et al.

Recurrent neural networks are able to learn complex long-term relationships from sequential data and output a pdf over the state space. Therefore, recurrent models are a natural choice to address path prediction tasks, where a trained model is used to generate future expectations from past observations. When applied to security applications, like predicting the path of pedestrians for risk assessment, a point-wise greedy (ML) evaluation of the output pdf is not feasible, since the environment often allows multiple choices. Therefore, a robust risk assessment has to take all options into account, even if they are overall not very likely. Towards this end, a combination of particle filter sampling strategies and a LSTM-MDL model is proposed to address a multi-modal path prediction task. The capabilities and viability of the proposed approach are evaluated on several synthetic test conditions, yielding the counter-intuitive result that the simplest approach performs best. Further, the feasibility of the proposed approach is illustrated on several real world scenes.