Aroon Narayanan

Andreas Haupt, Aroon Narayanan

Agents' learning from feedback shapes economic outcomes, and many economic decision-makers today employ learning algorithms to make consequential choices. This note shows that a widely used learning algorithm, $\varepsilon$-Greedy, exhibits emergent risk aversion: it prefers actions with lower variance. When presented with actions of the same expectation, under a wide range of conditions, $\varepsilon$-Greedy chooses the lower-variance action with probability approaching one. This emergent preference can have wide-ranging consequences, ranging from concerns about fairness to homogenization, and holds transiently even when the riskier action has a strictly higher expected payoff. We discuss two methods to correct this bias. The first method requires the algorithm to reweight data as a function of how likely the actions were to be chosen. The second requires the algorithm to have optimistic estimates of actions for which it has not collected much data. We show that risk-neutrality is restored with these corrections.

Aroon Narayanan

I study a game of strategic exploration with private payoffs and public actions in a Bayesian bandit setting. In particular, I look at cascade equilibria, in which agents switch over time from the risky action to the riskless action only when they become sufficiently pessimistic. I show that these equilibria exist under some conditions and establish their salient properties. Individual exploration in these equilibria can be more or less than the single-agent level depending on whether the agents start out with a common prior or not, but the most optimistic agent always underexplores. I also show that allowing the agents to write enforceable ex-ante contracts will lead to the most ex-ante optimistic agent to buy all payoff streams, providing an explanation to the buying out of smaller start-ups by more established firms.