Yijun Ran

Yijun Ran, Xiao-Ke Xu, Tao Jia

Networks offer a powerful approach to modeling complex systems by representing the underlying set of pairwise interactions. Link prediction is the task that predicts links of a network that are not directly visible, with profound applications in biological, social, and other complex systems. Despite intensive utilization of the topological feature in this task, it is unclear to what extent a feature can be leveraged to infer missing links. Here, we aim to unveil the capability of a topological feature in link prediction by identifying its prediction performance upper bound. We introduce a theoretical framework that is compatible with different indexes to gauge the feature, different prediction approaches to utilize the feature, and different metrics to quantify the prediction performance. The maximum capability of a topological feature follows a simple yet theoretically validated expression, which only depends on the extent to which the feature is held in missing and nonexistent links. Because a family of indexes based on the same feature shares the same upper bound, the potential of all others can be estimated from one single index. Furthermore, a feature's capability is lifted in the supervised prediction, which can be mathematically quantified, allowing us to estimate the benefit of applying machine learning algorithms. The universality of the pattern uncovered is empirically verified by 550 structurally diverse networks. The findings have applications in feature and method selection, and shed light on network characteristics that make a topological feature effective in link prediction.

Yikang Hou, Junjie Huang, Yijun Ran et al.

Dynamic signed networks (DSNs) are common in online platforms, where time-stamped positive and negative relations evolve over time. A core task in DSNs is dynamic edge prediction, which forecasts future relations by jointly modeling edge existence and polarity (positive, negative, or non-existent). However, existing dynamic signed network embedding (DSNE) methods often entangle positive and negative signals within a shared temporal state and rely on node-specific temporal trajectories, which can obscure polarity-asymmetric dynamics and harm inductive generalization, especially under cold-start evaluation. We study an inductive setting where each test edge contains at least one endpoint node held out from training, while its interactions prior to the prediction time are available as historical evidence. The model must therefore infer representations for unseen nodes solely from such limited history. We propose IDP-DSN, an Inductive Dual-Polarity framework for Dynamic Signed Networks. IDP-DSN maintains sign-selective memories to model positive and negative temporal dynamics separately, performs history-only neighborhood inference for unseen nodes (instead of learned node-wise trajectories), and enforces polarity-wise static--dynamic disentanglement via an orthogonality regularizer. Experiments on BitcoinAlpha, BitcoinOTC, Wiki-RfA, and Epinions demonstrate consistent improvements over the strongest baselines, achieving relative Macro-F1 gains of 16.8/23.4%, 16.9/24%, 30.1/25.5%, and 18.7/28.9% in the transductive/inductive settings, respectively. These results highlight the effectiveness of IDP-DSN on DSNs, particularly under inductive cold-start evaluation for dynamic signed edge prediction.

Xiaomeng Wang, Yijun Ran, Tao Jia

The co-occurrence association is widely observed in many empirical data. Mining the information in co-occurrence data is essential for advancing our understanding of systems such as social networks, ecosystem, and brain network. Measuring similarity of entities is one of the important tasks, which can usually be achieved using a network-based approach. Here we show that traditional methods based on the aggregated network can bring unwanted in-directed relationship. To cope with this issue, we propose a similarity measure based on the ego network of each entity, which effectively considers the change of an entity's centrality from one ego network to another. The index proposed is easy to calculate and has a clear physical meaning. Using two different data sets, we compare the new index with other existing ones. We find that the new index outperforms the traditional network-based similarity measures, and it can sometimes surpass the embedding method. In the meanwhile, the measure by the new index is weakly correlated with those by other methods, hence providing a different dimension to quantify similarities in co-occurrence data. Altogether, our work makes an extension in the network-based similarity measure and can be potentially applied in several related tasks.