David J. Sharp

Margherita Rosnati, Eyal Soreq, Miguel Monteiro et al.

The accurate prognosis for traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients is difficult yet essential to inform therapy, patient management, and long-term after-care. Patient characteristics such as age, motor and pupil responsiveness, hypoxia and hypotension, and radiological findings on computed tomography (CT), have been identified as important variables for TBI outcome prediction. CT is the acute imaging modality of choice in clinical practice because of its acquisition speed and widespread availability. However, this modality is mainly used for qualitative and semi-quantitative assessment, such as the Marshall scoring system, which is prone to subjectivity and human errors. This work explores the predictive power of imaging biomarkers extracted from routinely-acquired hospital admission CT scans using a state-of-the-art, deep learning TBI lesion segmentation method. We use lesion volumes and corresponding lesion statistics as inputs for an extended TBI outcome prediction model. We compare the predictive power of our proposed features to the Marshall score, independently and when paired with classic TBI biomarkers. We find that automatically extracted quantitative CT features perform similarly or better than the Marshall score in predicting unfavourable TBI outcomes. Leveraging automatic atlas alignment, we also identify frontal extra-axial lesions as important indicators of poor outcome. Our work may contribute to a better understanding of TBI, and provides new insights into how automated neuroimaging analysis can be used to improve prognostication after TBI.

Sebastian G. Popescu, David J. Sharp, James H. Cole et al.

Machine learning models deployed on medical imaging tasks must be equipped with out-of-distribution detection capabilities in order to avoid erroneous predictions. It is unsure whether out-of-distribution detection models reliant on deep neural networks are suitable for detecting domain shifts in medical imaging. Gaussian Processes can reliably separate in-distribution data points from out-of-distribution data points via their mathematical construction. Hence, we propose a parameter efficient Bayesian layer for hierarchical convolutional Gaussian Processes that incorporates Gaussian Processes operating in Wasserstein-2 space to reliably propagate uncertainty. This directly replaces convolving Gaussian Processes with a distance-preserving affine operator on distributions. Our experiments on brain tissue-segmentation show that the resulting architecture approaches the performance of well-established deterministic segmentation algorithms (U-Net), which has not been achieved with previous hierarchical Gaussian Processes. Moreover, by applying the same segmentation model to out-of-distribution data (i.e., images with pathology such as brain tumors), we show that our uncertainty estimates result in out-of-distribution detection that outperforms the capabilities of previous Bayesian networks and reconstruction-based approaches that learn normative distributions. To facilitate future work our code is publicly available.

Sebastian G. Popescu, David J. Sharp, James H. Cole et al.

We propose a parameter efficient Bayesian layer for hierarchical convolutional Gaussian Processes that incorporates Gaussian Processes operating in Wasserstein-2 space to reliably propagate uncertainty. This directly replaces convolving Gaussian Processes with a distance-preserving affine operator on distributions. Our experiments on brain tissue-segmentation show that the resulting architecture approaches the performance of well-established deterministic segmentation algorithms (U-Net), which has never been achieved with previous hierarchical Gaussian Processes. Moreover, by applying the same segmentation model to out-of-distribution data (i.e., images with pathology such as brain tumors), we show that our uncertainty estimates result in out-of-distribution detection that outperforms the capabilities of previous Bayesian networks and reconstruction-based approaches that learn normative distributions.

Honglin Li, Roonak Rezvani, Magdalena Anita Kolanko et al.

Behavioural symptoms and urinary tract infections (UTI) are among the most common problems faced by people with dementia. One of the key challenges in the management of these conditions is early detection and timely intervention in order to reduce distress and avoid unplanned hospital admissions. Using in-home sensing technologies and machine learning models for sensor data integration and analysis provides opportunities to detect and predict clinically significant events and changes in health status. We have developed an integrated platform to collect in-home sensor data and performed an observational study to apply machine learning models for agitation and UTI risk analysis. We collected a large dataset from 88 participants with a mean age of 82 and a standard deviation of 6.5 (47 females and 41 males) to evaluate a new deep learning model that utilises attention and rational mechanism. The proposed solution can process a large volume of data over a period of time and extract significant patterns in a time-series data (i.e. attention) and use the extracted features and patterns to train risk analysis models (i.e. rational). The proposed model can explain the predictions by indicating which time-steps and features are used in a long series of time-series data. The model provides a recall of 91\% and precision of 83\% in detecting the risk of agitation and UTIs. This model can be used for early detection of conditions such as UTIs and managing of neuropsychiatric symptoms such as agitation in association with initial treatment and early intervention approaches. In our study we have developed a set of clinical pathways for early interventions using the alerts generated by the proposed model and a clinical monitoring team has been set up to use the platform and respond to the alerts according to the created intervention plans.

Honglin Li, Magdalena Anita Kolanko, Shirin Enshaeifar et al.

Machine learning techniques combined with in-home monitoring technologies provide a unique opportunity to automate diagnosis and early detection of adverse health conditions in long-term conditions such as dementia. However, accessing sufficient labelled training samples and integrating high-quality, routinely collected data from heterogeneous in-home monitoring technologies are main obstacles hindered utilising these technologies in real-world medicine. This work presents a semi-supervised model that can continuously learn from routinely collected in-home observation and measurement data. We show how our model can process highly imbalanced and dynamic data to make robust predictions in analysing the risk of Urinary Tract Infections (UTIs) in dementia. UTIs are common in older adults and constitute one of the main causes of avoidable hospital admissions in people with dementia (PwD). Health-related conditions, such as UTI, have a lower prevalence in individuals, which classifies them as sporadic cases (i.e. rare or scattered, yet important events). This limits the access to sufficient training data, without which the supervised learning models risk becoming overfitted or biased. We introduce a probabilistic semi-supervised learning framework to address these issues. The proposed method produces a risk analysis score for UTIs using routinely collected data by in-home sensing technologies.