Michael T. Smith

Thomas M. McDonald, Magnus Ross, Michael T. Smith et al.

A key challenge in the practical application of Gaussian processes (GPs) is selecting a proper covariance function. The moving average, or process convolutions, construction of GPs allows some additional flexibility, but still requires choosing a proper smoothing kernel, which is non-trivial. Previous approaches have built covariance functions by using GP priors over the smoothing kernel, and by extension the covariance, as a way to bypass the need to specify it in advance. However, such models have been limited in several ways: they are restricted to single dimensional inputs, e.g. time; they only allow modelling of single outputs and they do not scale to large datasets since inference is not straightforward. In this paper, we introduce a nonparametric process convolution formulation for GPs that alleviates these weaknesses by using a functional sampling approach based on Matheron's rule to perform fast sampling using interdomain inducing variables. Furthermore, we propose a composition of these nonparametric convolutions that serves as an alternative to classic deep GP models, and allows the covariance functions of the intermediate layers to be inferred from the data. We test the performance of our model on benchmarks for single output GPs, multiple output GPs and deep GPs and find that our approach can provide improvements over standard GP models, particularly for larger datasets.

Magnus Ross, Michael T. Smith, Mauricio A. Álvarez

This paper introduces a method for the nonparametric Bayesian learning of nonlinear operators, through the use of the Volterra series with kernels represented using Gaussian processes (GPs), which we term the nonparametric Volterra kernels model (NVKM). When the input function to the operator is unobserved and has a GP prior, the NVKM constitutes a powerful method for both single and multiple output regression, and can be viewed as a nonlinear and nonparametric latent force model. When the input function is observed, the NVKM can be used to perform Bayesian system identification. We use recent advances in efficient sampling of explicit functions from GPs to map process realisations through the Volterra series without resorting to numerical integration, allowing scalability through doubly stochastic variational inference, and avoiding the need for Gaussian approximations of the output processes. We demonstrate the performance of the model for both multiple output regression and system identification using standard benchmarks.

Michael T. Smith, Joel Ssematimba, Mauricio A. Alvarez et al.

Data collection in economically constrained countries often necessitates using approximate and biased measurements due to the low-cost of the sensors used. This leads to potentially invalid predictions and poor policies or decision making. This is especially an issue if methods from resource-rich regions are applied without handling these additional constraints. In this paper we show, through the use of an air pollution network example, how using probabilistic machine learning can mitigate some of the technical constraints. Specifically we experiment with modelling the calibration for individual sensors as either distributions or Gaussian processes over time, and discuss the wider issues around the decision process.

Kathrin Grosse, Michael T. Smith, Michael Backes

In machine learning (ML) security, attacks like evasion, model stealing or membership inference are generally studied in individually. Previous work has also shown a relationship between some attacks and decision function curvature of the targeted model. Consequently, we study an ML model allowing direct control over the decision surface curvature: Gaussian Process classifiers (GPCs). For evasion, we find that changing GPC's curvature to be robust against one attack algorithm boils down to enabling a different norm or attack algorithm to succeed. This is backed up by our formal analysis showing that static security guarantees are opposed to learning. Concerning intellectual property, we show formally that lazy learning does not necessarily leak all information when applied. In practice, often a seemingly secure curvature can be found. For example, we are able to secure GPC against empirical membership inference by proper configuration. In this configuration, however, the GPC's hyper-parameters are leaked, e.g. model reverse engineering succeeds. We conclude that attacks on classification should not be studied in isolation, but in relation to each other.