Valerie Vaquet

Fabian Hinder, Valerie Vaquet, Johannes Brinkrolf et al.

The notion of concept drift refers to the phenomenon that the distribution generating the observed data changes over time. If drift is present, machine learning models can become inaccurate and need adjustment. While there do exist methods to detect concept drift or to adjust models in the presence of observed drift, the question of explaining drift, i.e., describing the potentially complex and high dimensional change of distribution in a human-understandable fashion, has hardly been considered so far. This problem is of importance since it enables an inspection of the most prominent characteristics of how and where drift manifests itself. Hence, it enables human understanding of the change and it increases acceptance of life-long learning models. In this paper, we present a novel technology characterizing concept drift in terms of the characteristic change of spatial features based on various explanation techniques. To do so, we propose a methodology to reduce the explanation of concept drift to an explanation of models that are trained in a suitable way extracting relevant information regarding the drift. This way a large variety of explanation schemes is available. Thus, a suitable method can be selected for the problem of drift explanation at hand. We outline the potential of this approach and demonstrate its usefulness in several examples.

Fabian Hinder, Valerie Vaquet, Barbara Hammer

The world surrounding us is subject to constant change. These changes, frequently described as concept drift, influence many industrial and technical processes. As they can lead to malfunctions and other anomalous behavior, which may be safety-critical in many scenarios, detecting and analyzing concept drift is crucial. In this paper, we provide a literature review focusing on concept drift in unsupervised data streams. While many surveys focus on supervised data streams, so far, there is no work reviewing the unsupervised setting. However, this setting is of particular relevance for monitoring and anomaly detection which are directly applicable to many tasks and challenges in engineering. This survey provides a taxonomy of existing work on drift detection. Besides, it covers the current state of research on drift localization in a systematic way. In addition to providing a systematic literature review, this work provides precise mathematical definitions of the considered problems and contains standardized experiments on parametric artificial datasets allowing for a direct comparison of different strategies for detection and localization. Thereby, the suitability of different schemes can be analyzed systematically and guidelines for their usage in real-world scenarios can be provided. Finally, there is a section on the emerging topic of explaining concept drift.

Valerie Vaquet, Fabian Hinder, Jonas Vaquet et al.

Facing climate change, the already limited availability of drinking water will decrease in the future rendering drinking water an increasingly scarce resource. Considerable amounts of it are lost through leakages in water transportation and distribution networks. Thus, anomaly detection and localization, in particular for leakages, are crucial but challenging tasks due to the complex interactions and changing demands in water distribution networks. In this work, we analyze the effects of anomalies on the dynamics of critical infrastructure systems by modeling the networks employing Bayesian networks. We then discuss how the problem is connected to and can be considered through the lens of concept drift. In particular, we argue that model-based explanations of concept drift are a promising tool for localizing anomalies given limited information about the network. The methodology is experimentally evaluated using realistic benchmark scenarios. To showcase that our methodology applies to critical infrastructure more generally, in addition to considering leakages and sensor faults in water systems, we showcase the suitability of the derived technique to localize sensor faults in power systems.

Fabian Hinder, Valerie Vaquet, Johannes Brinkrolf et al.

Concept drift -- the change of the distribution over time -- poses significant challenges for learning systems and is of central interest for monitoring. Understanding drift is thus paramount, and drift localization -- determining which samples are affected by the drift -- is essential. While several approaches exist, most rely on local testing schemes, which tend to fail in high-dimensional, low-signal settings. In this work, we consider a fundamentally different approach based on conformal predictions. We discuss and show the shortcomings of common approaches and demonstrate the performance of our approach on state-of-the-art image datasets.

Valerie Vaquet, Fabian Hinder, Johannes Brinkrolf et al.

Learning from non-stationary data streams is a research direction that gains increasing interest as more data in form of streams becomes available, for example from social media, smartphones, or industrial process monitoring. Most approaches assume that the ground truth of the samples becomes available (possibly with some delay) and perform supervised online learning in the test-then-train scheme. While this assumption might be valid in some scenarios, it does not apply to all settings. In this work, we focus on scarcely labeled data streams and explore the potential of self-labeling in gradually drifting data streams. We formalize this setup and propose a novel online $k$-nn classifier that combines self-labeling and demand-based active learning.

Fabian Hinder, Valerie Vaquet, Johannes Brinkrolf et al.

The notion of concept drift refers to the phenomenon that the distribution generating the observed data changes over time. If drift is present, machine learning models may become inaccurate and need adjustment. Many technologies for learning with drift rely on the interleaved test-train error (ITTE) as a quantity which approximates the model generalization error and triggers drift detection and model updates. In this work, we investigate in how far this procedure is mathematically justified. More precisely, we relate a change of the ITTE to the presence of real drift, i.e., a changed posterior, and to a change of the training result under the assumption of optimality. We support our theoretical findings by empirical evidence for several learning algorithms, models, and datasets.

Fabian Hinder, André Artelt, Valerie Vaquet et al.

The notion of concept drift refers to the phenomenon that the data generating distribution changes over time; as a consequence machine learning models may become inaccurate and need adjustment. In this paper we consider the problem of detecting those change points in unsupervised learning. Many unsupervised approaches rely on the discrepancy between the sample distributions of two time windows. This procedure is noisy for small windows, hence prone to induce false positives and not able to deal with more than one drift event in a window. In this paper we rely on structural properties of drift induced signals, which use spectral properties of kernel embedding of distributions. Based thereon we derive a new unsupervised drift detection algorithm, investigate its mathematical properties, and demonstrate its usefulness in several experiments.

Sarah Schröder, Thekla Morgenroth, Ulrike Kuhl et al.

Large Language Models (LLMs),such as ChatGPT, are increasingly used in research, ranging from simple writing assistance to complex data annotation tasks. Recently, some research has suggested that LLMs may even be able to simulate human psychology and can, hence, replace human participants in psychological studies. We caution against this approach. We provide conceptual arguments against the hypothesis that LLMs simulate human psychology. We then present empiric evidence illustrating our arguments by demonstrating that slight changes to wording that correspond to large changes in meaning lead to notable discrepancies between LLMs' and human responses, even for the recent CENTAUR model that was specifically fine-tuned on psychological responses. Additionally, different LLMs show very different responses to novel items, further illustrating their lack of reliability. We conclude that LLMs do not simulate human psychology and recommend that psychological researchers should treat LLMs as useful but fundamentally unreliable tools that need to be validated against human responses for every new application.

Valerie Vaquet, Fabian Hinder, Barbara Hammer

Leakages are a major risk in water distribution networks as they cause water loss and increase contamination risks. Leakage detection is a difficult task due to the complex dynamics of water distribution networks. In particular, small leakages are hard to detect. From a machine-learning perspective, leakages can be modeled as concept drift. Thus, a wide variety of drift detection schemes seems to be a suitable choice for detecting leakages. In this work, we explore the potential of model-loss-based and distribution-based drift detection methods to tackle leakage detection. We additionally discuss the issue of temporal dependencies in the data and propose a way to cope with it when applying distribution-based detection. We evaluate different methods systematically for leakages of different sizes and detection times. Additionally, we propose a first drift-detection-based technique for localizing leakages.

Valerie Vaquet, Fabian Hinder, André Artelt et al.

Research on methods for planning and controlling water distribution networks gains increasing relevance as the availability of drinking water will decrease as a consequence of climate change. So far, the majority of approaches is based on hydraulics and engineering expertise. However, with the increasing availability of sensors, machine learning techniques constitute a promising tool. This work presents the main tasks in water distribution networks, discusses how they relate to machine learning and analyses how the particularities of the domain pose challenges to and can be leveraged by machine learning approaches. Besides, it provides a technical toolkit by presenting evaluation benchmarks and a structured survey of the exemplary task of leakage detection and localization.

Fabian Hinder, Valerie Vaquet, Barbara Hammer

Concept drift, i.e., the change of the data generating distribution, can render machine learning models inaccurate. Several works address the phenomenon of concept drift in the streaming context usually assuming that consecutive data points are independent of each other. To generalize to dependent data, many authors link the notion of concept drift to time series. In this work, we show that the temporal dependencies are strongly influencing the sampling process. Thus, the used definitions need major modifications. In particular, we show that the notion of stationarity is not suited for this setup and discuss alternatives. We demonstrate that these alternative formal notions describe the observable learning behavior in numerical experiments.

David Komnick, Kathrin Lammers, Barbara Hammer et al.

In a world that constantly changes, it is crucial to understand how those changes impact different systems, such as industrial manufacturing or critical infrastructure. Explaining critical changes, referred to as concept drift in the field of machine learning, is the first step towards enabling targeted interventions to avoid or correct model failures, as well as malfunctions and errors in the physical world. Therefore, in this work, we extend model-based drift explanations towards causal explanations, which increases the actionability of the provided explanations. We evaluate our explanation strategy on a number of use cases, demonstrating the practical usefulness of our framework, which isolates the causally relevant features impacted by concept drift and, thus, allows for targeted intervention.

Kathrin Lammers, Valerie Vaquet, Barbara Hammer

As machine learning is increasingly applied in an online fashion to deal with evolving data streams, the fairness of these algorithms is a matter of growing ethical and legal concern. In many use cases, class imbalance in the data also needs to be dealt with to ensure predictive performance. Current fairness-aware stream learners typically attempt to solve these issues through in- or post-processing by focusing on optimizing one specific discrimination metric, addressing class imbalance in a separate processing step. While C-SMOTE is a highly effective model-agnostic pre-processing approach to mitigate class imbalance, as a side effect of this method, algorithmic bias is often introduced. Therefore, we propose CFSMOTE - a fairness-aware, continuous SMOTE variant - as a pre-processing approach to simultaneously address the class imbalance and fairness concerns by employing situation testing and balancing fairness-relevant groups during oversampling. Unlike other fairness-aware stream learners, CFSMOTE is not optimizing for only one specific fairness metric, therefore avoiding potentially problematic trade-offs. Our experiments show significant improvement on several common group fairness metrics in comparison to vanilla C-SMOTE while maintaining competitive performance, also in comparison to other fairness-aware algorithms.

Fabian Hinder, Valerie Vaquet, David Komnick et al.

Besides the classical offline setup of machine learning, stream learning constitutes a well-established setup where data arrives over time in potentially non-stationary environments. Concept drift, the phenomenon that the underlying distribution changes over time poses a significant challenge. Yet, despite high practical relevance, there is little to no foundational theory for learning in the drifting setup comparable to classical statistical learning theory in the offline setting. This can be attributed to the lack of an underlying object comparable to a probability distribution as in the classical setup. While there exist approaches to transfer ideas to the streaming setup, these start from a data perspective rather than an algorithmic one. In this work, we suggest a new model of data over time that is aimed at the algorithm's perspective. Instead of defining the setup using time points, we utilize a window-based approach that resembles the inner workings of most stream learning algorithms. We compare our framework to others from the literature on a theoretical basis, showing that in many cases both model the same situation. Furthermore, we perform a numerical evaluation and showcase an application in the domain of critical infrastructure.

Fabian Hinder, Valerie Vaquet, Barbara Hammer

Concept drift refers to the change of data distributions over time. While drift poses a challenge for learning models, requiring their continual adaption, it is also relevant in system monitoring to detect malfunctions, system failures, and unexpected behavior. In the latter case, the robust and reliable detection of drifts is imperative. This work studies the shortcomings of commonly used drift detection schemes. We show how to construct data streams that are drifting without being detected. We refer to those as drift adversarials. In particular, we compute all possible adversairals for common detection schemes and underpin our theoretical findings with empirical evaluations.

Felix Störck, Fabian Hinder, Johannes Brinkrolf et al.

Fairness is an important objective throughout society. From the distribution of limited goods such as education, over hiring and payment, to taxes, legislation, and jurisprudence. Due to the increasing importance of machine learning approaches in all areas of daily life including those related to health, security, and equity, an increasing amount of research focuses on fair machine learning. In this work, we focus on the fairness of partition- and prototype-based models. The contribution of this work is twofold: 1) we develop a general framework for fair machine learning of partition-based models that does not depend on a specific fairness definition, and 2) we derive a fair version of learning vector quantization (LVQ) as a specific instantiation. We compare the resulting algorithm against other algorithms from the literature on theoretical and real-world data showing its practical relevance.

Fabian Hinder, Valerie Vaquet, Barbara Hammer

The notion of concept drift refers to the phenomenon that the distribution, which is underlying the observed data, changes over time; as a consequence machine learning models may become inaccurate and need adjustment. Many unsupervised approaches for drift detection rely on measuring the discrepancy between the sample distributions of two time windows. This may be done directly, after some preprocessing (feature extraction, embedding into a latent space, etc.), or with respect to inferred features (mean, variance, conditional probabilities etc.). Most drift detection methods can be distinguished in what metric they use, how this metric is estimated, and how the decision threshold is found. In this paper, we analyze structural properties of the drift induced signals in the context of different metrics. We compare different types of estimators and metrics theoretically and empirically and investigate the relevance of the single metric components. In addition, we propose new choices and demonstrate their suitability in several experiments.

André Artelt, Fabian Hinder, Valerie Vaquet et al.

Many decision making systems deployed in the real world are not static - a phenomenon known as model adaptation takes place over time. The need for transparency and interpretability of AI-based decision models is widely accepted and thus have been worked on extensively. Usually, explanation methods assume a static system that has to be explained. Explaining non-static systems is still an open research question, which poses the challenge how to explain model adaptations. In this contribution, we propose and (empirically) evaluate a framework for explaining model adaptations by contrastive explanations. We also propose a method for automatically finding regions in data space that are affected by a given model adaptation and thus should be explained.

André Artelt, Valerie Vaquet, Riza Velioglu et al.

Transparency is a fundamental requirement for decision making systems when these should be deployed in the real world. It is usually achieved by providing explanations of the system's behavior. A prominent and intuitive type of explanations are counterfactual explanations. Counterfactual explanations explain a behavior to the user by proposing actions -- as changes to the input -- that would cause a different (specified) behavior of the system. However, such explanation methods can be unstable with respect to small changes to the input -- i.e. even a small change in the input can lead to huge or arbitrary changes in the output and of the explanation. This could be problematic for counterfactual explanations, as two similar individuals might get very different explanations. Even worse, if the recommended actions differ considerably in their complexity, one would consider such unstable (counterfactual) explanations as individually unfair. In this work, we formally and empirically study the robustness of counterfactual explanations in general, as well as under different models and different kinds of perturbations. Furthermore, we propose that plausible counterfactual explanations can be used instead of closest counterfactual explanations to improve the robustness and consequently the individual fairness of counterfactual explanations.