Fredrik Johansson

Connor T. Jerzak, Fredrik Johansson, Adel Daoud

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of interventions. One use of RCTs is to study the causes of global poverty -- a subject explicitly cited in the 2019 Nobel Memorial Prize awarded to Duflo, Banerjee, and Kremer "for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty." Because the ATE is a population summary, anti-poverty experiments often seek to unpack the effect variation around the ATE by conditioning (CATE) on tabular variables such as age and ethnicity that were measured during the RCT data collection. Although such variables are key to unpacking CATE, using only such variables may fail to capture historical, geographical, or neighborhood-specific contributors to effect variation, as tabular RCT data are often only observed near the time of the experiment. In global poverty research, when the location of the experiment units is approximately known, satellite imagery can provide a window into such factors important for understanding heterogeneity. However, there is no method that specifically enables applied researchers to analyze CATE from images. In this paper, using a deep probabilistic modeling framework, we develop such a method that estimates latent clusters of images by identifying images with similar treatment effects distributions. Our interpretable image CATE model also includes a sensitivity factor that quantifies the importance of image segments contributing to the effect cluster prediction. We compare the proposed methods against alternatives in simulation; also, we show how the model works in an actual RCT, estimating the effects of an anti-poverty intervention in northern Uganda and obtaining a posterior predictive distribution over effects for the rest of the country where no experimental data was collected. We make all models available in open-source software.

Fredrik Johansson

We describe algorithms to compute elliptic functions and their relatives (Jacobi theta functions, modular forms, elliptic integrals, and the arithmetic-geometric mean) numerically to arbitrary precision with rigorous error bounds for arbitrary complex variables. Implementations in ball arithmetic are available in the open source Arb library. We discuss the algorithms from a concrete implementation point of view, with focus on performance at tens to thousands of digits of precision.

Fredrik Johansson

Arb is a C library for arbitrary-precision interval arithmetic using the midpoint-radius representation, also known as ball arithmetic. It supports real and complex numbers, polynomials, power series, matrices, and evaluation of many special functions. The core number types are designed for versatility and speed in a range of scenarios, allowing performance that is competitive with non-interval arbitrary-precision types such as MPFR and MPC floating-point numbers. We discuss the low-level number representation, strategies for precision and error bounds, and the implementation of efficient polynomial arithmetic with interval coefficients.

Fredrik Johansson

We present an efficient implementation of hypergeometric functions in arbitrary-precision interval arithmetic. The functions ${}_0F_1$, ${}_1F_1$, ${}_2F_1$ and ${}_2F_0$ (or the Kummer $U$-function) are supported for unrestricted complex parameters and argument, and by extension, we cover exponential and trigonometric integrals, error functions, Fresnel integrals, incomplete gamma and beta functions, Bessel functions, Airy functions, Legendre functions, Jacobi polynomials, complete elliptic integrals, and other special functions. The output can be used directly for interval computations or to generate provably correct floating-point approximations in any format. Performance is competitive with earlier arbitrary-precision software, and sometimes orders of magnitude faster. We also partially cover the generalized hypergeometric function ${}_pF_q$ and computation of high-order parameter derivatives.

Fredrik Johansson

We present an implementation of arbitrary-precision numerical integration with rigorous error bounds in the Arb library. Rapid convergence is ensured for piecewise complex analytic integrals by use of the Petras algorithm, which combines adaptive bisection with adaptive Gaussian quadrature where error bounds are determined via complex magnitudes without evaluating derivatives. The code is general, easy to use, and efficient, often outperforming existing non-rigorous software.

Fredrik Johansson

We describe an algorithm to evaluate all the complex branches of the Lambert W function with rigorous error bounds in interval arithmetic, which has been implemented in the Arb library. The classic 1996 paper on the Lambert W function by Corless et al. provides a thorough but partly heuristic numerical analysis which needs to be complemented with some explicit inequalities and practical observations about managing precision and branch cuts.

Connor T. Jerzak, Fredrik Johansson, Adel Daoud

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.

Fredrik Johansson, Iaroslav Blagouchine

The generalized Stieltjes constants $γ\_n(v)$ are, up to a simple scaling factor, the Laurent series coefficients of the Hurwitz zeta function $ζ(s,v)$ about its unique pole $s = 1$. In this work, we devise an efficient algorithm to compute these constants to arbitrary precision with rigorous error bounds, for the first time achieving this with low complexity with respect to the order~$n$. Our computations are based on an integral representation with a hyperbolic kernel that decays exponentially fast. The algorithm consists of locating an approximate steepest descent contour and then evaluating the integral numerically in ball arithmetic using the Petras algorithm with a Taylor expansion for bounds near the saddle point. An implementation is provided in the Arb library. We can, for example, compute $γ\_n(1)$ to 1000 digits in a minute for any $n$ up to $n=10^{100}$. We also provide other interesting integral representations for $γ\_n(v)$, $ζ(s)$, $ζ(s,v)$, some polygamma functions and the Lerch transcendent.

Connor T. Jerzak, Fredrik Johansson, Adel Daoud

Observational studies of causal effects require adjustment for confounding factors. In the tabular setting, where these factors are well-defined, separate random variables, the effect of confounding is well understood. However, in public policy, ecology, and in medicine, decisions are often made in non-tabular settings, informed by patterns or objects detected in images (e.g., maps, satellite or tomography imagery). Using such imagery for causal inference presents an opportunity because objects in the image may be related to the treatment and outcome of interest. In these cases, we rely on the images to adjust for confounding but observed data do not directly label the existence of the important objects. Motivated by real-world applications, we formalize this challenge, how it can be handled, and what conditions are sufficient to identify and estimate causal effects. We analyze finite-sample performance using simulation experiments, estimating effects using a propensity adjustment algorithm that employs a machine learning model to estimate the image confounding. Our experiments also examine sensitivity to misspecification of the image pattern mechanism. Finally, we use our methodology to estimate the effects of policy interventions on poverty in African communities from satellite imagery.

Fredrik Johansson, Marc Mezzarobba

We describe a strategy for rigorous arbitrary-precision evaluation of Legendre polynomials on the unit interval and its application in the generation of Gauss-Legendre quadrature rules. Our focus is on making the evaluation practical for a wide range of realistic parameters, corresponding to the requirements of numerical integration to an accuracy of about 100 to 100 000 bits. Our algorithm combines the summation by rectangular splitting of several types of expansions in terms of hypergeometric series with a fixed-point implementation of Bonnet's three-term recurrence relation. We then compute rigorous enclosures of the Gauss-Legendre nodes and weights using the interval Newton method. We provide rigorous error bounds for all steps of the algorithm. The approach is validated by an implementation in the Arb library, which achieves order-of-magnitude speedups over previous code for computing Gauss-Legendre rules with simultaneous high degree and precision.

Omer Gottesman, Fredrik Johansson, Joshua Meier et al.

Much attention has been devoted recently to the development of machine learning algorithms with the goal of improving treatment policies in healthcare. Reinforcement learning (RL) is a sub-field within machine learning that is concerned with learning how to make sequences of decisions so as to optimize long-term effects. Already, RL algorithms have been proposed to identify decision-making strategies for mechanical ventilation, sepsis management and treatment of schizophrenia. However, before implementing treatment policies learned by black-box algorithms in high-stakes clinical decision problems, special care must be taken in the evaluation of these policies. In this document, our goal is to expose some of the subtleties associated with evaluating RL algorithms in healthcare. We aim to provide a conceptual starting point for clinical and computational researchers to ask the right questions when designing and evaluating algorithms for new ways of treating patients. In the following, we describe how choices about how to summarize a history, variance of statistical estimators, and confounders in more ad-hoc measures can result in unreliable, even misleading estimates of the quality of a treatment policy. We also provide suggestions for mitigating these effects---for while there is much promise for mining observational health data to uncover better treatment policies, evaluation must be performed thoughtfully.

Fredrik Johansson

We describe a new implementation of the elementary transcendental functions exp, sin, cos, log and atan for variable precision up to approximately 4096 bits. Compared to the MPFR library, we achieve a maximum speedup ranging from a factor 3 for cos to 30 for atan. Our implementation uses table-based argument reduction together with rectangular splitting to evaluate Taylor series. We collect denominators to reduce the number of divisions in the Taylor series, and avoid overhead by doing all multiprecision arithmetic using the mpn layer of the GMP library. Our implementation provides rigorous error bounds.